Nationals Farm Authority

Two down. Two to go.

Jim Callis of Baseball America is reporting that the Nationals have agree to deals with 2nd round pick LHP Sammy Solis for $1M and 4th round pick RHP A.J. Cole for $2M.

The Nats have now signed 30 of their 50 picks and 23 of their first 26 selections.

The last two names to watch are 1st round OF Bryce Harper and 12th round LHP Robbie Ray. I expect that the Nationals will agree to terms with both. (Hat tip to commenter Sean who has said that an injury has led 14th rd SS Tim Smalling to return to college).

I need to confirm this, but Perfect Game USA is listed Nationals 2010 12th round draft pick Robbie Ray as signed. If so, this is a coup. The Tennessee high school left-handed pitcher has a commitment to Arkansas. Baseball America is not listing him as signed.

• Perfect Game’s Scouting report … Long, lanky LHP; three no-hitters this spring to his credit; stuff varies, but FB 90-92, + CH when on game
• Baseball America … Lefthander Ray had a tumultuous spring, with inconsistent velocity and performances. He was never quite as good as he showed in showcases last fall, when his fastball reached the mid-90s and his slurvy breaking ball showed more power. He also has flashed a plus changeup with some late fade. His fastball velocity was more in the 89-91 mph range this spring, and in some starts it sat in the upper 80s. That didn’t keep him from throwing a five-inning perfect game, one of three no-hitters he authored in the spring. Ray has a whippy arm action and slender 6-foot-3, 175-pound frame. He changed his college commitment from Vanderbilt to Arkansas. While he’s considered more signable now, he also could start on weekends for the Razorbacks if he is more consistent next spring

UPDATE: Keith Law has told me (via Twitter) that the Nationals have not signed Ray, but are bringing him in for a workout this week. So, no deal yet but the door isn’t closed.

[Part One]

Yesterday, I researched the Nationals performance when it game to drafting, signing, and developing high school players. What appeared from 2005 to 2007 was that the Nationals saw their greatest bang for the buck more from trading high school draft picks than developing them.

To have a more complete picture, here is how the Nationals did with their more recent stable of high school draft picks. One caveat here is that it is too early to place any true value judgments on many of the following players since they are still early on in their development process.

The 2008 draft year is very interesting in that it was the first year where the Nationals began to pull back from their proclivity towards grabbing high ceiling high school players early. Excluding a budget driven 2005 draft, the Nationals used sixteen of their twenty-four picks in the first ten rounds of the 2006 & 2007 draft on high school players (and eleven of their fourteen picks in the first five rounds). There was a clear focus on these more volatile players. In 2008, the Nationals drafted sixteen high schoolers out of their fifty total picks and signed six of them (see table below for signed HS players). But unlike the previous two seasons, the Nationals used only three of their firs ten selections on high school players. In the second round, the Nationals fulfilled their need for a “toolsy” outfielder that was quite popular under the Bowden regime in Florida HS OF Destin Hood. To date, Hood has been pretty solid developing along a path that fits his position as a second round draft picks. In 110 games for Hagerstown, Hood is batting 289/333/393. In the fourth round, the Nationals opted for a lesser known projectable left-handed pitcher in Graham Hicks. Hicks is a Suns teammate of Hood’s who has struggled with his command to date. As I mentioned, it’s still too early to write him off as a prospect, the 2011 draft would be when Hicks (or most 2008 high schoolers) would be drafted out of college so the jury remains out. The fifth round saw the Nationals grab a player who some draft previews had as a late first rounder in CA Adrian Nieto. Nieto is struggling in Hagerstown hitting only 182/264/235 for Hagerstown and slotting behind Sandy Leon as the Suns backup catcher. Catchers often times take longer to develop but Nieto has not lived up to his draft year hype, to date. The Nationals may have found their best return from $1 million spent in the 15th round. After failing to sign their 1st round pick, the Nationals signed a last minute deal with Texas HS OF J.P. Ramirez who has begun to pay dividends as a hitter in 2010. In 106 games for the Suns, Ramirez is hitting 294/343/480 with 14 home runs and 59 RBI, playing primarily left field. The remaining high schooler from the 2008 draft is Vermont LHP Bobby Hansen who has shown some promise with his strikeouts to date. The one thing that stood out to me in 2008 was the names of the players they drafted but didn’t sign. The 2006 draft had a slew of recognizable high school names but that was as part of an all-out high school focus of that draft. In 2008, the Nationals tabbed several players later in the draft (after the 25th round) that have some name cache today. With players like Anthony Meo (43rd round RHP) and Alex Dickerson (48th round OF), the Nationals drafted players who are rumored first day names in the 2011 draft (Dickerson has the chance to be a top 10 overall selection out of Indiana). Teams typically do not sign high schoolers drafted in this range, but will at times tip their hands to players they like for a few years down the road. All in all, the 2008 high schoolers appear to have a better return on investment as Hood and Ramirez are ones to watch with grades still to be determined for Hicks, Nieto & Hansen.

• BOLD are still with organization

Things changed last year as Jim Bowden was replaced by Mike Rizzo, initially on an interim basis, but after the draft with the full time tag. And, this is where things really changed. While the Nationals drafted twenty-one total high schoolers, only three of them were in the top ten rounds and they ended up signing five (see table below for signed HS players). The highest high schooler drafted did not even sign with the Nationals as Texas LHP Miguel Pena (5th round) opted to attend junior college and re-enter the 2010 draft (where he was drafted in 13th round by San Diego). The other two high schoolers selected were both shortstops, Michael Taylor (6th round) and Roberto Perez (8th round). Neither guy had much buzz entering the draft and therefore the expectations are not as high as some of the players they’ve drafted in the past. Both players are still in the GCL which is not surprising for 2009 high schoolers. The only other 2009 high schooler left in the organization is 27th round RHP Brandon King who is also developing in the GCL. The Nationals have actually already released two 2009 high school players in  SS Kyle Breault (23rd round) and CA Gianison (Boekhoudt) Rosa (26th round) earlier this year. As with 2008, what is more striking is the names of the high schoolers they selected in the “unsignable” range of the draft; these are players who are better off going to college and taking their chances in 2012 draft. The names I see as ones to watch for the 2012 draft are Nick De Santiago (33rd rd CA), Jacob Morris (35th rd OF), Kyle Martin (39th rd RHP), Dane Opel (41st rd OF), Cohl Walla (43rd rd OF)m and Michael Ratterree (45th rd SS). While not all of these players are going to be future first rounders (or first day picks), the higher ceiling guys were targeted here. At the end of the day, it appears that the 2009 draft will not be remembered for the high schoolers but for Stephen Stras-something.

• BOLD are still in the organization

That brings us to this year. Where the Nationals again have shied away from high school players, opting to select only thirteen total high schoolers (again I include 1st round OF Bryce Harper given his age … even though he played in JuCo). And only three high schoolers were selected in the first 29 rounds. This draft’s high school class will begin and end with Harper and 4th round RHP A.J. Cole. Twelfth round RHP Robbie Ray is a dark horse but I am guessing he heads to Arkansas. Of the the late round high schoolers drafted, only 39th round RHP John Simms‘ name resonates with me as a premium high schooler.

What this two-day study has confirmed for me is that the Nationals under Mike Rizzo are not as enamored with the high risk/reward high schoolers, instead opting for the more known college products. Whether this pays dividends moving forward is to be determined but it seems clear that aside from a few exceptions, the Nationals are more inclined to move away from high school players as a rule

The signing deadline for picks from the 2010 MLB First Year Player Draft is midnight one week from today. The Nationals are realistically down to three players left to sign, 1st round OF Bryce Harper, 2nd round LHP Sammy Solis, and 4th round RHP A.J. Cole (12th round LHP Robbie Ray is really a long-shot). For the sake of argument, I am counting Harper as a high schooler though he played at the College of Southern Nevada in 2010, meaning that of those unsigned players, two of them can be considered high school picks

Taking a look at their five-year history, the Nationals have a spotty record at best when it comes to drafting/signing/developing high school players. Today’s post will focus on their first three seasons (2005-07):

In 2005, the Nationals drafted 21 high school players (one in the first ten rounds) and signed six of them (see table below for signed HS players). 33rd round LHP Ryan Buchter was signed as a draft-and-follow in 2006 out of JuCo. None of those six players remain in the organization. The highest pick of the six was 5th round OF Ryan Delaughter. Delaughter topped out in Vermont for the Nats in 2006, 2007, and 2008; failing first as an outfielder and then again as a right-handed relief pitcher. Keeping in mind, the Nationals were operating on a MLB-directed budget, the 2005 draft produced nothing of value from high school.

• ^ Clark missed 2005 & 2006 with injuries and only pitched in the GCL in 2007
• + Buchter was traded in the 2008 off-season for RHP Matt Avery who pitched one season for Harrisburg (2009)

The 2006 draft was stocked with high schoolers from their first picks. Due to he loss of free agents Esteban Loaiza & Hector Carrasco, the Nationals had two extra picks early in the draft. The Nationals used their first six picks on high ceiling high school players. There were 23 total high schoolers drafted (eight in the first ten rounds) with six signed (see table below for signed HS players). 41st round RHP Brad Peacock was drafted out of HS and signed as a draft-and-follow in 2007 out of CC. Of those six players, four remain with the organization with two of them still carrying the prospect tag to a a degree. Their first overall pick, Chris Marrero has gradually worked his way through the organization and has regained some of his early prospect luster with his performance in Harrisburg in 2010 (294/357/451). He does not appear to be that middle of the order big bat the Nationals would have hoped but he is still a viable major league prospect. The other name is Peacock. The 22-year old RHP is unique to the Nationals minor leagues in that he is a starting pitcher who strikes batters out (340K in 411 career IP). He profiles best as a back of the rotation starter or more likely a solid right-handed setup guy. 4th round LHP Glenn Gibson deserves special consideration because the Nationals turned him into OF Elijah Dukes, who played three season for the Nationals. For a soft-tossing left-hander who has not pitched higher than the Sally League, that’s a very good return on investment. The remaining players have, to date, failed/been highly disappointing. The Nationals saw their second first round pick, RHP Colton Willems, retire at the beginning of the 2010 season after maxing out in Potomac in 2009. Stephen Englund followed the Delaughter path, failing as an outfielder as well as a potential conversion to the mound; he was released in 2010 (also of note, he was one of three Nats HS draft picks that was suspended for testing positive for a banned substance). The final player is 3B Stephen King, who like Englund was suspended 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance; he has struggled both at the plate and in the field topping out in Potomac in both 2008 and 2009; he’s currently playing 3B for Hagerstown where he is hitting 152/325/197 over 20 games. All in all, an OK return with three seasons of Dukes and two potential guys (Marrero & Peacock), but nowhere close to the promise of what was thought at the time.

• BOLD are still in organization
• ^spent two seasons in Tampa Bay farm system

The loss of OFs Alfonso Soriano & Jose Guillen gave the Nationals three extra early picks in addition to their own. The Nationals used two of these early picks on high school players, drafting fifteen total high schoolers (eight in the first ten rounds) and signing nine of them (see table below for signed HS players). They used both of their supplemental first round selections on high school players drafting/signing LHP Josh Smoker (Soriano) and OF Mike Burgess (Guillen). To date, Burgess remains on the prospect map, but like Marrero, with some of the shin lost; Burgess is playing his second full season at High A Potomac where the power still flashes, but so do the strikeouts. He’s still young enough (22 in October) but I don’t believe the plate discipline is there to develop into the middle of the order threat he appeared he could be on draft day. Smoker, on the other hand, has been a disappointment. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the left-hander, and recently he was removed from the Hagerstown rotation and placed in the bullpen after a terrible 2010 season (3-10 7.41ERA 1.89WHIP 73K/49BB over 79IP 1.6HR/9IP). Again, the Nationals get special consideration for two of their minor leaguers more for what they turned them into. 2nd round pick Jake Smolinksi and 7th round pick P.J. Dean were dealt to Florida along with IF Emilio Bonifacio for LHP Scott Olsen and OF Josh Willingham. Much like with the Dukes/Gibson deal, the Nationals used some of their minor league invenory to acquire major league contributors; when you consider that Dean retired before throwing a pitch for the Marlins, Smolinski (252/312/382 in the Florida League) and Bonifacio (-0.5 WAR) was a bargain price for what the Nationals have received from Willingham (4.6 WAR) alone [Olsen has a 0.1 WAR for the record]. The biggest coup of the draft is 4th round CA Derek Norris, who burst onto the MLB prospect map with a breakout performance in Hagerstown in 2009 (286/413/513 with 23HR and 84RBI). A broken hamate bone and a beaning have plagued Norris’ 2010 in Potomac (222/403/367) but hamate injuries take time to recover (typically the power takes a year to come back) so the bloom is not off the rose, but a strong 2011 is expected out of Norris to keep him on that prospect map. Early reports have Norris slated for take 2 at the Arizona Fall League (the hamate injury short-circuited his debut in 2009). The remaining high schoolers are dotted with injuries (Jack McGeary & TJ surgery) and positive drug tests (Steve Souza) along with a couple of organizational arms (LHP Pat McCoy and RHP Pat Arnold). Norris is worth the price of admission for the high schoolers here, but aside from him the stable of future major league contributors is really questionable outside of him.

• BOLD are still in organization

[Tomorrow, 2008 and 2009]

The Nationals have signed 2010 32nd round draft pick Randolph Oduber, a junior college OF from Western Oklahoma State College.

“They made him a pretty darn good offer and it would have been stupid for him to turn it down,” Grizzlies coach Jason Plourde said.

That makes 26/50 from this year’s draft

A release came out today confirming the signings of 21st round OF Connor Rowe, 24th round OF Russell Moldenhauer, and 29th round OF Rick Hughes. The new name listed is 36th round OF Wander Nunez.

The release now lists the Nationals having signed 25 players from the draft. This does not reconcile with the two releases to date. The original list confirmed 22 signings and today’s listed 4 new ones. The one discrepancy is 33rd round Junior College Ryan Sherriff.

I’m working on trying to determine what happened.

While there has not been an official release, MiLB.com has listed the Vermont Lake Monsters adding OFs Connor Rowe & Russell Moldenhauer from the 2010 draft. Rowe was a 21st round selection and Moldenhauer a 24th round selection, both from the University of Texas. This puts the Nationals at 25/50 from this past draft.

According to this report from News 8 Austin, 21st round OF Connor Rowe has signed with the Nationals. That puts the Nationals at 24 confirmed signings though the Nationals have released information about only 22 (the other outlier is 29th round OF Rick Hughes who has been playing for the Vermont Lake Monsters).

Andy Seiler gives the Nats draft an A- at MLB Bonus Baby.

Sean Hogan has reviewed both the signed and unsigned Nationals draft picks.

John Sickels reviews the Nats draft.

Chris Needham talks about the Nats “trade” for Drew Storen.

There should be a new Natmosphere in Your Ear talking draft up some time today.

I will be doing regular spots talking minor leagues on Monday’s at 6:15PM on Nats Weekly on the Prime Sports Network. They archive the audio there if you have any interest.

The Nationals have signed the following 22 players from the 2010 draft:

• 5th rd SS Jason Martinson
• 6th rd CA Cole Leonida
• 9th rd RHP Aaron Barrett
• 10th rd SS Blake Kelso
• 11th rd RHP Neil Holland
• 13th rd RHP Chris McKenzie
• 15th rd CA David Freitas
• 16th rd RHP Mark Herrera
• 17th rd RHP Tyler Hanks
• 18th rd 2B Justin Miller
• 19th rd CF Wade Miller
• 20th rd RF Chad Mozingo
• 22nd rd RHP Cameron Selik
• 23rd rd RHP Colin Bates
• 25th rd LHP Christian Meza
• 26th rd LHP Christopher Manno
• 31st rd CA Jeremy Mayo
• 33rd rd LHP Ryan Sherriff
• 35th rd 1B Tyler Oliver
• 37th rd LHP Nick Serino
• 41st rd RHP Kevin Cahill
• 49th rd OF Dimetrius Hatcher

That’s 12 pitchers, five from Junior College (out of six total … only remaining unsigned 38th rd LHP Nick Lee) and seven from college (out of ten total … remaining unsigned are 2nd rd LHP Sammy Solis, 8th rd LHP Matt Grace [still playing in College World Series], and 27th rd RHP Sean Hoelscher). There are also seven unsigned high school pitchers.

The 10 hitters signed included two of their eight junior college draftees (naturally, Bryce Harper is the highest unsigned draft pick) and eight of the fourteen college draftees (remaining unsigned include 3rd rd SS Rick Hague, the Texas trio of OF Kevin Keyes [7], DH Russell Moldenhauer [24], & OF Connor Rowe [21], and 14th rd VA Tech SS Tim Smalling)

They additionally signed the following undrafted free agents: shortstop Mills Rogers (Carson-Newman College) and right-handed pitchers Tim Dupuis (Assumption College), Mike Gallo (Milligan College), Zach Gerler (Austin Peay University) and Ben Graham (Emporia State) as non-drafted free agents.

Rogers was a senior at Carson-Newman … he batted 378/448/637 with 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 8/11 SB

Dupuis was the closer for Assumption College … 25 games (led team and conference) (0 starts), 28.2 innings, 25 hits allowed, 14 runs allowed, 12 earned runs allowed, 8 walks, 31 strike outs, 3-2 record, 11 saves (team record & second in conference) 3.77 era… National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association preseason all-American… Northeast-10 Conference Second Team

Gallo was senior reliever for Milligan College

Gerler was the closer for Austin Peay

Graham was a starter for Emporia State