Nationals Farm Authority

has arrived and I have another prospect guide to add to the rotation.

Quick hit from last year’s list

• Five have ‘graduated’ to the majors/used up rookie eligibility (Zimmermann, Detwiler, Mock, Martis, & Stammen)
• Seven have dropped out (Smiley, Davis, Rhinehart, King, Smoker, Willems, & Van Allen)
• Three no longer in organization (Hinckley, Terrell Young & Montz)

That’s half the list turning over with five added from 2009 draft.

(And this year’s #18, Marco Estrada, is now with Milwaukee).

I’m still reading through The Baseball Prospect Book 2010 but I wanted to give my quick impressions.As I mentioned in the previous posting, 2010 had the following:

• 38 players graded/profiled: 24 arms & 14 bats
• One Grade A
• Two Grade B+
• One Grade B
• Two Grade B-
• Eight Grade C+
• Twenty-four grade C
• Three sleeper alerts

Compared to 2009 where there were:

• 36 players graded/profiled: 17 arms & 19 bats
• No grade As
• Two grade B+
• One grade B
• Three grade B-
• Twelve grade C+
• Eighteen grade C
• One sleeper (Derek Norris)

It appears the top tier is getting better with the addition of guys like Strasburg and Storen along with breakout of Norris. I figured it would be interesting to look at the Nats included in 2009 along with thier 2009 grade and the current disposition (in the 2010 book or not):

In the 2010 book (14):

• OF Michael Burgess B+: Grade dropped to B-
• RHP Paul Demny C: Grade unchanged
• SS Ian Desmond C+: Grade unchanged
• SS Danny Espinosa C: Grade improved to B
• OF JR Higley C: Grade unchanged
• OF Destin Hood C+: Grade unchanged
• 1B Chris Marrero B: Grade dropped to B-
• OF Justin Maxwell C+: Grade unchanged
• LHP Jack McGeary B-: Grade dropped to C
• CA Adrian Nieto C+: Grade dropped to C
• CA Derek Norris C+: Grade improved to B+
• RHP Brad Peacock C: Grade unchanged
• OF JP Ramirez C+: Grade dropped to C
• LHP Josh Smoker C+: Grade dropped to C

No longer rookies, so not in 2010 book (6):

• OF Roger Bernadina C+
• RHP Tyler Clippard C
• LHP Ross Detwiler B-
• RHP Shairon Martis C+
• RHP Garrett Mock B-
• RHP Jordan Zimmermann B+

Still rookie eligible but not in 2010 book (12):

• RHP Adrian Alaniz C
• LHP Will Atwood C
• OF Mike Daniel C
• OF Leonard Davis C
• SS Smiley Gonzalez C+
• LHP Graham Hicks C
• OF Marcus Jones C
• IF Stephen King C
• OF Marvin Lowrance C+
• LHP Yunior Novoa C
• 1B Bill Rhinehart C
• RHP Colton Willems C+

No longer in organization (4):

• RHP Marco Estrada C (in 2010 book)
• LHP Mike Hinckley C
• CA Luke Montz C
• RHP Terrell Young Grade C

With Nationals in 2010 but not 2009 but graded elsewhere (1):

• LHP Victor Garate C (Dodgers): Grade unchanged
• LHP Aaron Thompson C+ (Marlins): Grade dropped to C

Of those who graduated out of the book, I’d say that only Detwiler & Zimmermann are long term options as major league regulars. Guys like Bernadina, Clippard, Martis & Mock are bench players or extra arms for the bullpen (though I’m sure there are some Clippard fans who might disagree).

The only improved grades were Derek Norris and Danny Espinosa with six guys keeping the same grade. It is disappointing to see the guys who have slipped (Burgess, Marrero, & McGeary) as they are considered some of the top prospects in the organization.

The guys who dropped out of the book completely include primarily the Grade C guys who Sickels typically views as future role players (most likely). The two names that stand out to me are Gonzalez and Willems. Lugo (nee Gonzalez) is not a surprise but Willems needs to be viewed as a failed pick.

I’m not going to to list the names of all of the new guys in the book (buy it from Sickels, it’s worth it), but I’ll give a quick breakdown of the 21 new Nats in the book:

• Ten from 2009 draft (hint: I’ll spot you Strasburg & Storen)
• Five international players from within the organization (hint: two arms were added to the 40-man this fall)
• Four from other drafts (hint: two from 2007 and two from 2008)
• One from outside the organization (Luis Garcia)
• One undrafted free agent (Josh Wilkie)

It;s a mixed bag, in my opinion, there are some strong guys but there also appears to be some stagnation and regression.

Frequent commenter, Sue Dinem, has a couple of postings over at NationalsProspects.com where the guide from Shandler Enterprises details the Nationals prospects both scouting & sabermetrically.

First, an overview

Next, the hitters

Finally, the pitchers

I used to get all three of the major publications, MiLB Analyst, Baseball America, and John Sickels but have scaled back to just BA and Sickels recently. I’m glad to see a discussion of the third guide.

Baseball America has their weekly listing of the minor league transactions and the Nationals have made a few moves:

Signed: RHP Nick Maness, LHP Chuck James, 3B Angel Gonzalez, OF Kevin Mench

Placed on restricted list: RHP Randy Matias

James was already known. The lefty has an outside shot at the #5 spot but seems more likely a candidate for the rotation in Syracuse.

Maness is a blast from the past. BA had Maness in their first ever Prospect Handbook back in 2001 where he was ranked #7 in the Mets organization. Baseball Reference has no stats on him from 2007 through 2009. Seems like roster filler.

Gonzalez split his time between the Carolina and Eastern Leagues in 2009, while playing in the Pirates organization. I’ll go with the hunch that he was recommended by the newly hired Bryan Minniti who joined Washington from Pittsburgh. I’d imagine he’s in line for a utility role with Harrisburg

And finally, a fellow Blue Hen alum in Kevin Mench. Mench was originally signed by current Nats Director of Player Development Doug Harris back when both were with the Rangers. Mench had a couple of good seasons for Texas back in 2004-05 but spent the 2009 season in Japan. If he sticks, I’d imagine he’s the DH in Syracuse.

Matias being placed on the restricted list could be for a variety of reasons.

Got home this afternoon to find The Baseball Prospect Book 2010 in my mailbox. I’m sitting down right now to page through it, but there are 38 Nationals graded and profiled. Here are some quick hits

• 24 arms
• 14 bats
• One Grade A
• Two Grade B+
• One Grade B
• Two Grade B-
• Eight Grade C+
• The rest grade C (including NFA favorite Josh Wilkie)
• Three sleeper alerts

Taking a break from school stuff to play catch up on the minor league signings:

• From Baseball America … the Nats signed 2B Chase Lambin, SS Pedro Lopez, and OF Pedro Powell
  • Lambin played for seven seasons in the Marlins and Mets organizations before heading to Japan last year. The 30-year old switch hitter seems destined for Syracuse if he sticks with the Nats
  • I’m guessing that’s the Lopez they signed; the 23-year old appears to have been out of baseball for a couple of years. Guess Harrisburg if he hangs around
  • Powell looks like a 4th/5th OF for Syracuse
• From the Nats transaction page, they have signed OF Chris Duncan to a minor league deal with a spring invitation. The 28-year old Duncan had two big power years for the Cardinals. He has recently battled a neck injury. I kind of like this signing. If he’s recovered, Duncan overs a powerful left-handed bat off the bench for the Nats, not seen since Daryle Ward.
• Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Nationals have also signed RHRP Tyler Walker and LHSP Chuck James. It appears that Walker may be a major league deal while James is a minor league deal (assuming with a spring invitation). Walker is another right-handed option for the bullpen. If it is a major league deal, a corresponding roster move is needed. James is rehabbing from reconstructive shoulder surgery that cost him all of the 2009 season. This seems to be a Roy Clark move and is a low downside gamble for the back end of the Nationals rotation.
• The Nationals have updated their spring invites, including LHRP Victor Garate (who was removed from the 40-man for Matt Capps). Also added were RHRP Drew Storen and CA Derek Norris. Both are unlikely to break camp on the 25-man roster but given their prospect status, they will join RHSP Stephen Strasburg (on the 40-man) in spring camp. Honestly, it’s nice to see a smaller spring invite list for the Nats. Recently, there were far too many people invited to the major league camp

Big Board should be updated