[Part One]
Yesterday, I researched the Nationals performance when it game to drafting, signing, and developing high school players. What appeared from 2005 to 2007 was that the Nationals saw their greatest bang for the buck more from trading high school draft picks than developing them.
To have a more complete picture, here is how the Nationals did with their more recent stable of high school draft picks. One caveat here is that it is too early to place any true value judgments on many of the following players since they are still early on in their development process.
The 2008 draft year is very interesting in that it was the first year where the Nationals began to pull back from their proclivity towards grabbing high ceiling high school players early. Excluding a budget driven 2005 draft, the Nationals used sixteen of their twenty-four picks in the first ten rounds of the 2006 & 2007 draft on high school players (and eleven of their fourteen picks in the first five rounds). There was a clear focus on these more volatile players. In 2008, the Nationals drafted sixteen high schoolers out of their fifty total picks and signed six of them (see table below for signed HS players). But unlike the previous two seasons, the Nationals used only three of their firs ten selections on high school players. In the second round, the Nationals fulfilled their need for a “toolsy” outfielder that was quite popular under the Bowden regime in Florida HS OF Destin Hood. To date, Hood has been pretty solid developing along a path that fits his position as a second round draft picks. In 110 games for Hagerstown, Hood is batting 289/333/393. In the fourth round, the Nationals opted for a lesser known projectable left-handed pitcher in Graham Hicks. Hicks is a Suns teammate of Hood’s who has struggled with his command to date. As I mentioned, it’s still too early to write him off as a prospect, the 2011 draft would be when Hicks (or most 2008 high schoolers) would be drafted out of college so the jury remains out. The fifth round saw the Nationals grab a player who some draft previews had as a late first rounder in CA Adrian Nieto. Nieto is struggling in Hagerstown hitting only 182/264/235 for Hagerstown and slotting behind Sandy Leon as the Suns backup catcher. Catchers often times take longer to develop but Nieto has not lived up to his draft year hype, to date. The Nationals may have found their best return from $1 million spent in the 15th round. After failing to sign their 1st round pick, the Nationals signed a last minute deal with Texas HS OF J.P. Ramirez who has begun to pay dividends as a hitter in 2010. In 106 games for the Suns, Ramirez is hitting 294/343/480 with 14 home runs and 59 RBI, playing primarily left field. The remaining high schooler from the 2008 draft is Vermont LHP Bobby Hansen who has shown some promise with his strikeouts to date. The one thing that stood out to me in 2008 was the names of the players they drafted but didn’t sign. The 2006 draft had a slew of recognizable high school names but that was as part of an all-out high school focus of that draft. In 2008, the Nationals tabbed several players later in the draft (after the 25th round) that have some name cache today. With players like Anthony Meo (43rd round RHP) and Alex Dickerson (48th round OF), the Nationals drafted players who are rumored first day names in the 2011 draft (Dickerson has the chance to be a top 10 overall selection out of Indiana). Teams typically do not sign high schoolers drafted in this range, but will at times tip their hands to players they like for a few years down the road. All in all, the 2008 high schoolers appear to have a better return on investment as Hood and Ramirez are ones to watch with grades still to be determined for Hicks, Nieto & Hansen.
| Year |
Rd |
Player |
Pos |
Yrs in Org |
Highest level |
| 2008 |
2 |
Destin Hood |
OF |
3 |
Hagerstown |
| 2008 |
4 |
Graham Hicks |
LHP |
3 |
Hagerstown |
| 2008 |
5 |
Adrian Nieto |
CA |
3 |
Hagerstown |
| 2008 |
15 |
J.P. Ramirez |
OF |
3 |
Hagerstown |
| 2008 |
18 |
Bobby Hansen |
LHP |
3 |
Vermont |
| 2008 |
23 |
Derrick Phillips |
OF |
3 |
GCL |
- BOLD are still with organization
Things changed last year as Jim Bowden was replaced by Mike Rizzo, initially on an interim basis, but after the draft with the full time tag. And, this is where things really changed. While the Nationals drafted twenty-one total high schoolers, only three of them were in the top ten rounds and they ended up signing five (see table below for signed HS players). The highest high schooler drafted did not even sign with the Nationals as Texas LHP Miguel Pena (5th round) opted to attend junior college and re-enter the 2010 draft (where he was drafted in 13th round by San Diego). The other two high schoolers selected were both shortstops, Michael Taylor (6th round) and Roberto Perez (8th round). Neither guy had much buzz entering the draft and therefore the expectations are not as high as some of the players they’ve drafted in the past. Both players are still in the GCL which is not surprising for 2009 high schoolers. The only other 2009 high schooler left in the organization is 27th round RHP Brandon King who is also developing in the GCL. The Nationals have actually already released two 2009 high school players in SS Kyle Breault (23rd round) and CA Gianison (Boekhoudt) Rosa (26th round) earlier this year. As with 2008, what is more striking is the names of the high schoolers they selected in the “unsignable” range of the draft; these are players who are better off going to college and taking their chances in 2012 draft. The names I see as ones to watch for the 2012 draft are Nick De Santiago (33rd rd CA), Jacob Morris (35th rd OF), Kyle Martin (39th rd RHP), Dane Opel (41st rd OF), Cohl Walla (43rd rd OF)m and Michael Ratterree (45th rd SS). While not all of these players are going to be future first rounders (or first day picks), the higher ceiling guys were targeted here. At the end of the day, it appears that the 2009 draft will not be remembered for the high schoolers but for Stephen Stras-something.
| Year |
Rd |
Player |
Pos |
Yrs in Org |
Highest level |
| 2009 |
6 |
Michael Taylor |
SS |
2 |
GCL |
| 2009 |
8 |
Roberto Perez |
SS |
2 |
GCL |
| 2009 |
23 |
Kyle Breault |
SS |
1 |
GCL |
| 2009 |
26 |
Gianison Rosa |
CA |
2 |
GCL |
| 2009 |
27 |
Brandon King |
RHP |
2 |
GCL |
- BOLD are still in the organization
That brings us to this year. Where the Nationals again have shied away from high school players, opting to select only thirteen total high schoolers (again I include 1st round OF Bryce Harper given his age … even though he played in JuCo). And only three high schoolers were selected in the first 29 rounds. This draft’s high school class will begin and end with Harper and 4th round RHP A.J. Cole. Twelfth round RHP Robbie Ray is a dark horse but I am guessing he heads to Arkansas. Of the the late round high schoolers drafted, only 39th round RHP John Simms‘ name resonates with me as a premium high schooler.
What this two-day study has confirmed for me is that the Nationals under Mike Rizzo are not as enamored with the high risk/reward high schoolers, instead opting for the more known college products. Whether this pays dividends moving forward is to be determined but it seems clear that aside from a few exceptions, the Nationals are more inclined to move away from high school players as a rule
