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BA’s Nationals Top 10 Chat


The chat was subscription only, but here are a couple of highlights of the chat with Aaron Fitt:

  • OF Eury Perez is #11 on BA’s list
  • LHP Aaron Thompson, acquired from the Marlins for Nick Johnson,  is #12
  • 2008 9th rd pick, OF JR Higley is in the top 15
  • 2009 4th rd pick, RHP AJ Morris, and 22nd rd pick LHP Danny Rosenbaum are in the top 30 (making a total of five 2009 draft picks in the top 30)
  • If eligible, Detwiler and Zimmermann would have ranked in the 4-6 range
  • Confirms that the high number of bats in the top 10 is not indicative of organizational depth in position players; actually they are thin there
  • Does not see any impact starters in the organization (outside of Strasburg), more a glut of back end guys & middle relievers

For the most part, Fitt’s opinions seem to mesh from what I can gather. The organization is improving but outside of the top 5 or 6 players, the front line impact guys are still lacking. It takes time, smart drafts, good trades and some luck to put together a top ten (or more) of high impact players.

This was not a process I expected to turn around in the near term (3 or 4 years). The Nationals do not have the highly coveted major leaguers to deal for depth a la the Rangers did with Mark Teixeira. They have only selected at the top part of the draft for the past few seasons and at best you could only hope they find two or three impact guys (between 2007-09). And I’m not certain how strong their player development has been over the last few years, only starting to settle down since Mike Rizzo took the reins this past spring.

I’ll close with a quote Fitt gave towards the end of the chat

I think this organization is going in the right direction. Having a competent GM is a nice start. Having a cornerstone piece in the rotation makes a big difference also.

I agree wholeheartedly

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 11th, 2009, 4:37 PM and is filed under Players. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  1. #1 by Pilchard - November 11th, 2009 at 17:01

    In the summary of the bonus and draft history, thought it was interesting that the 3rd highest bonus paid to a draftee or international free agent (after SS and Ryan Z) was the the $2.95 million paid to Justin Wayne in 2000, the 4th highest was the $2.6 million paid to Josh Karp in 2001, and the 5th highest was the $2.5 million paid to Clint Everts in 2002.

    So, for all the Lerner/Kasten bluster about the commitment to investing in player development, pretty amazing that the 3 of the top 5 bonuses in organization player development history were paid by Jeffrey Loria 7, 8 and 9 years ago.

  2. #2 by DJ - November 11th, 2009 at 17:37

    Eh, Strasburg and Zimmermann are front of the line starters and Detwiler is making a good case for a strong #4 (maybe even #3). That’s pretty darn decent.

    We have control over Zimmerman, Morgan and Flores for the forseeable future and pieces like Desmond and Marrero are stepping up.

    We still have a long ways to go, but we’re getting better.

  3. #3 by Sue Dinem - November 11th, 2009 at 18:16

    Please, please, please – let’s not go back to the lowest-common-denominator blatherings about money spent. Leave that for NJ and the talk-radio ilk (I know, I know – probably not much difference between those two groups) that has (mostly) slithered away.

    As BA noted, it’s a start to have a better GM in place and I’d much rather focus on what Rizzo and his crew will do in their first full offseason together to continue the rebuilding of the farm system, versus lamenting what the previous front-offices did or didn’t do. Maybe there was a time for that pity party, but that time has passed.

  4. #4 by cass - November 11th, 2009 at 18:42

    Has anyone heard anything about Strasburg since last Friday? He was scratched from the Rising Stars game on Saturday but it sounded like he’d make his next appearance. However, looking the probable starters for the Desert Dogs, there’s no sign of him even on Friday, which would have been his next start after the Rising Stars game.

    I was hoping that if the Desert Dogs don’t blow it (and right now, it looks like they will blow it…), he’d be able to start the Championship game on TV, but now, I’m not sure if he’s even still in the AFL. Can’t find any info on how he’s doing anywhere.

  5. #5 by Jake - November 11th, 2009 at 19:14

    I really like that they have Danny Rosenbaum up there. Great guy and great player. Hope he continues playing well!

  6. #6 by Brian Oliver - November 11th, 2009 at 19:33

    cass – he is scheduled to make his next start on Saturday

  7. #7 by cass - November 11th, 2009 at 19:42

    Thanks, Brian!

  8. #8 by WallyBall - November 11th, 2009 at 20:20

    I also agree with Fitt’s comment about Rizzo. Amen. I would still like to see some sign of the sabre trend, but no doubt that he is putting together a very solid, professional group.

    As for the rankings, seems like they mostly got it right, although you can always quibble with a few points. Mine was his offhand comment on JZimm. Pre-injury and with his prospect status intact, he would be the easy #2 prospect. Not sure how to rank him with TJ, but I would still have him quite a ways above Detwiler.

  9. #9 by natteringnabob - November 11th, 2009 at 21:04

    Here’s a look at last year’s BA prospect list, with the 2009 result in parentheses. A “*” means they are no longer eligible due to meeting innings or AB requirements. Five pitchers “graduated” from the list.

    1. Zimmermann (*)
    2. Detwiler (*)
    3. Marrero (6)
    4. Burgess (9)
    5. McGeary (?)
    6. Norris (2)
    7. Hood (10)
    8. Nieto (?)
    9. Ramirez (?)
    10. former Smiley Gonzales
    11. Maxwell (8)
    12. Mock (*)
    13. Martis (*)
    14. Espinoza (5)
    15. Hicks (?)
    16. Davis (?)
    17. Rhinehart (?)
    18. Bernadina (?)
    19. Desmond (4)
    20. Stammen (*)
    21. Estrada (?)
    22. out of organization
    23. King (?)
    24. Atwood (?)
    25. Smoker (?)
    26. Willems (?)
    27. Atilano (?)
    28. Van Allen (?)
    29. Montz (?)
    30. out of organization

  10. #10 by natteringnabob - November 11th, 2009 at 21:06

    Hmm, the numbers disappeared – let’s try again

    1 Zimmermann () 2 Detwiler () 3 Marrero (6) 4 Burgess (9) 5 McGeary (?) 6 Norris (2) 7 Hood (10) 8 Nieto (?) 9 Ramirez (?) 10 former Smiley Gonzales 11 Maxwell (8) 12 Mock () 13 Martis () 14 Espinoza (5) 15 Hicks (?) 16 Davis (?) 17 Rhinehart (?) 18 Bernadina (?) 19 Desmond (4) 20 Stammen (*) 21 Estrada (?) 22 out of organization 23 King (?) 24 Atwood (?) 25 Smoker (?) 26 Willems (?) 27 Atilano (?) 28 Van Allen (?) 29 Montz (?) 30 out of organization

  11. #11 by Hoagie - November 11th, 2009 at 23:24

    I assume ZNN would fall in the 4-6 range because of the injury?

    Even with TJ surgery, I’m surprised they don’t consider him at least a potential future impact starter.

  12. #12 by BinM - November 12th, 2009 at 21:30

    Just wondering why players like Tyler Moore (1B-HAG), Brett Newsome (1B-GCL), Steve Lombardozzi (2B-HAG), Francisco Soriano (2B-VT), Mike Daniel (LF-HAG/SYR), and pitchers like Jeff Mandel (SP-POT/HAR/AFL, LH), Bradley Meyers (SP-POT/HAR), Tom Milone (SP-POT, LH), Juan Jaime (SP-VT/HAG), Patrick Lehman (SP-VT/HAG) and others aren’t getting the “love” that some of the others seem to recieve. Is it age, is it draft-rank, or something else?

  13. #13 by R-Zim#11 - November 13th, 2009 at 11:33

    Pilchard :

    So, for all the Lerner/Kasten bluster about the commitment to investing in player development, pretty amazing that the 3 of the top 5 bonuses in organization player development history were paid by Jeffrey Loria 7, 8 and 9 years ago.

    So it doesn’t matter that Strasburg alone exceeds the total value of all three of those complete busts?

    All that shows is that Loria paid a lot of money for complete garbage.

    The Lerner’s have had all of three drafts. If you want to hang the Crow debacle on their heads, fine. Most people with an objective eye see that was Bowden and the Hendricks idiots.

    For what it’s worth — I am very excited about the most recent draft class. Storen looks like an ice-in-his-veins closer.

  14. #14 by JCA - November 14th, 2009 at 15:54

    Other than Hood, is there anyone in the Nats top 10 who slipped from the first round due to signability concerns and who we convinced to sign with us by going substantially above slot? That is one way to get high end prospects quickly.

    Sorry to fall back on the Red Sox as an example to illustrate this, but BP has come out with their top 11 and one of the organization’s two 5-star players is Ryan Westmoreland, who was a 5th round pick bound for college until the team paid him one of their highest bonuses his draft year (2008) (present value – $1.6m – $2m deferred over 5 years). 5 stars translate to top 50 prospects for BP, and 4 stars translate to top 100. Their 4 stars also include Josh Reddick (’06 17th round, $140K), and Ryan Kalish (’06 9th round, $600K). Those are three players likely to be in BA’s top 100 who we can say did not have to be drafted high to be top prospects. Probably only Westmoreland has an all-star upside potential, but the point is that you can accelerate your system getting paying for talent that slips and not just out of the #1s, supplementals, and #2s.

    Also, it’s nice to see at least one international close to the top 10 (Perez). You’ve made this point before, but internationals are another way to improve a system beyond high draft choices.

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