The hard copy of Baseball America is out. It includes the top 10 prospects for the NL East.
Here is their Nationals Top 10
- RHP Stephen Strasburg
- CA Derek Norris
- RHP Drew Storen
- SS Ian Desmond
- SS Danny Espinosa
- 1B Chris Marrero
- 2B Jeff Kobernus
- OF Justin Maxwell
- OF Michael Burgess
- OF Destin Hood
The only quibble I have with this list is the presence of Maxwell on the list. I don’t view him as much of a prospect anymore. I might consider adding someone like OF Eury Perez or RHP Brad Meyers in his place.
One thing that does stand out to me is the number of bats on the list. I’m not sure I would have placed eight bats on the list. The bats listed seem to be more upside gambles. Some have no professional track record (Kobernus). Some have not developed as hoped and still are “getting by” on reputation (Burgess). And some are still too raw to make an honest assessment (Hood).
There are a number of pitchers I might have considered for top 10 (Meyers, Aaron Thompson, Marcos Frias, Josh Smoker, Jack McGeary to name a few in no particular order). The more experienced arms might offer less upside but seem to have less of a downside (Meyers, Thompson, even relievers like Josh Wilkie or Clint Everts) . The less experienced arms are just as volatile as the less experienced bats (Hood, JP Ramirez, Adrian Nieto).
My opinion is that the BA Top 10 list can be misinterpreted as a sign of organizational strength/depth in hitting. I am not sure I could make the case for that. If anything, the more known minor league depth is among the pitching (albeit without a true frontline starter outside of Strasburg).
I’d be interested in hearing the thoughts of others in the comments below.
#1 by Sec 204 Row H Seat 7 - November 10th, 2009 at 12:04
I agree with you about Maxwell and Burgess. Maxwell can play a decent Center Field but he must improve his bat. Burgess has to do it next year also. Kobernus was starting to do in Vermont after a slow start when he got hurt. His pre-draft rep plus that probably got him on the list. I agree with the descriptions of the pitchrs except McGeary. I fear he may be a wash out. I believe Meyers can be a front line starter.
#2 by Andrew Stebbins - November 10th, 2009 at 12:20
Can anyone remind me where Desmond ranked at this time last year? What a season he had, at all 3 stops.
#3 by JayB - November 10th, 2009 at 12:21
Ouch….what does this say about Kasten and his constant season thick sales job of building deep pitching that all the other teams in the league are drooling over……not so much it seems Stan…..
#4 by JayB - November 10th, 2009 at 12:23
Unless fielding the ball is important for a SS…..
#5 by Charlie - November 10th, 2009 at 12:34
Who is this #1 guy? I don’t remember seeing him before on previous lists. Stephen who?
#6 by VladiHondo - November 10th, 2009 at 12:37
Last years list: 1. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 2. Ross Detwiler. LHP 3. Chris Marrero, 1B 4. Michael Burgess, OF 5. Jack McGeary, LHP 6. Derek Norris, C 7. Destin Hood, OF 8. Adrian Nieto, C 9. J.P. Ramirez, OF 10. Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS
#7 by Sue Dinem - November 10th, 2009 at 13:00
One would think that once a player gets to the majors and logs a certain # of ABs or IPs, it would disqualify him from being described as a “prospect” if not hitting a certain age — especially age-obsessed BA (hence Norris ranking above Marrero; Maxwell turned 26 this past Friday).
#8 by Todd Boss - November 10th, 2009 at 14:12
I recall reading some analysis of SS fielding percentages in the minors and then majors, related to Desmond’s lower fielding percentages. And its not unheard of to see fielding %’s vastly increase upon reaching the majors. Its a combination of field quality and fellow fielder quality.
Plus, i think the future is at 2B for Desmond. Less pressure there defensively than at short. I think Espinosa moves into SS in 2011, Desmond at 2nd and Marrero at 1B for a young, talented infield core.
#9 by Marcus - November 10th, 2009 at 14:15
I could see removing Kobernus, Maxwell and Burgess off that top 10 although all 3 have merit I think there are some players with better track records in pro. ball that deserve consideration.
E. Perez, B. Meyers, and Lombardozi I think should all be in the top 10. Here’s my list:
Lombardozzi put up very solid numbers in Low-A this year yet rarely gets any love around here…
#10 by Pilchard - November 10th, 2009 at 14:22
For players taken in the 2007 MLB draft, the Nats opened up their wallet to sign 3 players to contracts of $1million or more:
All 3 have been disappointing thus far, but at least Detwiler took a step forward in 2009. While injuries have impacted Smoker and the attempt to attend Stanford and play pro baseball impacted McGeary, both appear to be headed down the bust path.
All has not been lost in that draft as Jordan Zimmerman signed for $495K, and would expect that he will make a full return from TJ surgery, and Derek Norris ($210 K) is the top position player prospect in the system.
Also, I would not give up on Burgess yet. He was young for the Carolina league in 2009, and he hit 19HRs and drove in 71 runs at that level in what would have been his sophmore year in college. He also has a cannon for an arm.
FWIW, the Nats signed Brad Meyers for $145K as a 5th round pick that year.
#11 by Ryan - November 10th, 2009 at 15:28
Seems to me that outside the top 2, anyone from 3-13 could be in any order… personally, I would have Marrero #3, but I believe in his bat more than others-
This list seems to show that we have a good amount of depth, but not the top end talent you always wish for. Should see a big jump in the rankings this year-
#12 by Steve - November 10th, 2009 at 15:42
What happened to McGeary this year? It will be interesting to see if he stays at Vermont or is moved up next year.
#13 by cjrugger - November 10th, 2009 at 16:14
I’m not very surprised by the list, BA has always been about upside and projection, not about production. That said I still thought Meyers would have done enough to make the list, but I’m not surprised to see Kobernus and Hood on there.
I agree with your assesment that pitching is the strength, but its a lot more of middle to back of the pack guys. Our hitters are much higher celining guys, but just with a lower probability
#14 by Brian Oliver - November 10th, 2009 at 16:17
cj – You captured my feelings perfectly in that last paragraph
#15 by hoo - November 10th, 2009 at 16:39
Not sure how Maxwell is still a prospect. If he is, I’d probably consider Detweiler a prospect still.
The high dollar pitchers Smoker/McGeary have been either hurt or not quite as impressive (For Steve: McGeary was so-so with control issues. Not really top 10)
With pitching, Nats have really tried to stockpile a bunch of arms in hope of a few breakthroughs. The most highly touted arms before the ‘09 draft are behind schedule. The Bat seems to be more on schedule
#16 by Brian Oliver - November 10th, 2009 at 16:55
Detwiler has exceeded the IP requirements to be considered a rookie (72.2IP for Ross with the ceiling being 50IP)
Maxwell has 115 major league AB and the cutoff is 130AB
#17 by Pilchard - November 10th, 2009 at 17:01
They will have a chat tomorrow, and I will try to ask where Det would be rated if he stayed under the innings threshold to be considered a prospect. He would definitely rank in the top 10, and probably the top 5 (I would guess #4).
#18 by Pilchard - November 10th, 2009 at 17:04
Similarly, even with his elbow injury Jordan Zimmerman would likely be #2 or #3 on the list. Both Zimmerman and Detwiler have been in the organization for less than 3 years, but have graduated from consideration as prospects because of the Nats aggressive promotion schedule. With those 2 in the mix, I think 4 of the top 5 prospects in the Nats system are pitchers.
#19 by cjrugger - November 10th, 2009 at 17:05
re prospect status: BA has always used the rookie cutoffs, if the player is still eligible for rookie of the year they are eligible
#20 by Brian Oliver - November 10th, 2009 at 17:15
Off topic … Squire Galbreath is no longer listed as an Asst GM on the Nationals website. Still there as a partner but no longer in the Baseball Administration role.
#21 by Scot - November 10th, 2009 at 17:32
Ditto Marcus observations and list, comment #9. Also, am really thankful for and enjoy BA, but their criteria leaves one to wonder at times. E. Perez and B. Meyers had sensational performances by ANY standard.
#22 by Andrew Stebbins - November 10th, 2009 at 18:04
Nats hire Bryan Minnitti to be Asst. GM (there is your contracts guy) and Davey Johnson to be a senior assistant.
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/10347350/Source:-Valentine-a-finalist-to-be-Nats-manager
#23 by John - November 10th, 2009 at 18:08
Brian: It appears they have their contract guy in Brian Minnitti from the Pirates. They’ve also hired Davey Johnson to be a senior adviser to Rizzo.
Ken Rosenthal says they will hire one more front office person. I wonder if that will be our Pacific Rim director.
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/10347350/Source:-Valentine-a-finalist-to-be-Nats-manager
#24 by BinM - November 10th, 2009 at 19:07
Brian: With Brian Parker leaving the Orginization, and Squire Galbreath being relieved of duties, who do you see staffing the Baseball Admin & Baseball Ops Director spots?
#25 by Ric - November 10th, 2009 at 20:35
I don’t have much objection to the list. Could make a case for Perez and Meyers in the top 10, but I bet they are in the top 15, along with A. Thompson.
On Maxwell, it is easy to forget, but even though Maxwell is older, he lost so many development years to injury – at college and in the minors – that I think it is right still to call him a prospect. Working with the MLB staff in September, he seemed to make great progress on his swing. If that was real progress, and if he can stay healthy, Maxwell could surprise and push for a job in right field this year.
#26 by Jeff E. - November 11th, 2009 at 10:27
I have no problem with keeping the flame burning for Maxwell, but shall we hold back the bleacher cheers for Perez who had one neat year in the GCL?? I believe that is why BA reminds us of GCL Top 10 guys 10 years later to show how premature some rah-rah is. Patience on McGeary and Smoaker. Davey Johnson should manage in DC someday.
#27 by Brian Oliver - November 11th, 2009 at 10:38
Jeff – But how can you reconcile that with Kobernus making the top 10 on college stats and a week’s worth of Vermont stats?
I understand being cautious with over-hyping Perez but I too often find BA getting to hung up on the ‘next big thing’ coming out of the draft.
#28 by Brian Oliver - November 11th, 2009 at 15:57
from Aaron Fitt’s chat
#29 by Andrew Stebbins - November 11th, 2009 at 16:21
Ryan Zimmerman wins the 2009 NL 3b Gold Glove. First of many!
#30 by Hendo - November 12th, 2009 at 10:37
Glad to see I’m not the only one mystified about Kobernus making the list and Lombardozzi being left off. Even if they think Kobernus has one hell of a ceiling, are they arguing that Lombardozzi has topped out because he doesn’t hit HRs? I’m confused.