Nationals Farm Authority

One week from tomorrow, MLB teams are eligible to call up any player currently on their 40-man as rosters expand for the final month and change of the season. At present, the Nationals currently have a full 40-man roster but this does not mean all of them will be recalled.

In 2008, the Nationals added 11 players through either recalling them (if already on the 40-man), activating them from the DL, or purchasing their contract (if not on the 40-man). In 2007, the Nationals added just eight players.

Typically, the players you see recalled are extra arms for the bullpen, a third catcher, and perhaps an extra outfielder and/or infielder.

This year, we are likely to see some more starting pitchers recalled as the Nationals begin to see some of their younger starting pitchers reach their maximum innings pitched in September. Jim Riggleman mentioned at the press conference yesterday that the Nationals first order of business was to protect the young arms for the future.

With that in mind, the following players are currently on the 40-man but not on the active (25-man roster):

• CA Jesus Flores (on 15-day DL)
• CA Luke Montz (in Harrisburg)
• 1B Dmitri Young (on 15-day DL)
• SS Ian Desmond (in Syracuse)
• OF Austin Kearns (on 15-day DL)
• OF Justin Maxwell (in Syracuse)
• LHSP Scott Olsen (on 15-day DL)
• RHSP Jordan Zimmermann (on 15-day DL)
• LHSP Ross Detwiler (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Shairon Martis (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Marco Estrada (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Luis Atilano (in Syracuse)
• RHRP Ryan Mattheus (on DL in minor leagues)
• LHSP Matt Chico (in Harrisburg)

Additionally, the Nationals have OF Roger Bernadina and RHRP Terrell Young on the 60-day DL. Bill Ladson reported over the weekend that Bernadina was out for the season. There is an outside shot the Nationals activate Young just to accrue a month of service time towards keeping the Rule 5 draft pick who needs 90 days of service time on the 25-man roster to retain his rights.

Of the players on 15-day, all but Kearns are out for the season (as is Mattheus in the minors) meaning they will not be recalled but offer the Nationals the chance to open up five spots on the 40-man if they are moved to the 60-day DL. Kearns [1] is likely to be activated for the final month of the season.

That leaves the following eight options

• CA Luke Montz (in Harrisburg)
• SS Ian Desmond (in Syracuse)
• OF Justin Maxwell (in Syracuse)
• LHSP Ross Detwiler (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Shairon Martis (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Marco Estrada (in Syracuse)
• RHSP Luis Atilano (in Syracuse)
• LHSP Matt Chico (in Harrisburg)

Since Riggleman mentioned the goal is to protect the young pitchers, let’s start looking at roster expansion there with starters and relievers

Starters

Below is a table with the IP for the guys in the starting rotation along with the options at the higher levels of the minor leagues.

	2009 (to date)			2008			2007
	MLB	MiLB	Total	MLB	MiLB	Total	MLB	MiLB	Total
Lannan*	160.67	0.00	160.67	182.00	0.00	182.00	34.67	124.67	159.33
Stammen	101.00	40.00	141.00	0.00	150.67	150.67	0.00	128.67	128.67
Mock	47.67	51.00	98.67	41.00	104.67	145.67	0.00	65.00	65.00
Balester	25.33	103.33	128.67	80.00	78.67	158.67	0.00	150.33	150.33
Martin	34.00	88.00	122.00	0.00	42.33	42.33	0.00	89.67	89.67
Detwiler*	52.00	61.67	113.67	0.00	135.67	135.67	1.00	122.33	123.33
Martis	85.67	54.33	140.00	20.67	116.33	137.00	0.00	151.00	151.00
Estrada	0.00	126.33	126.33	12.67	139.67	152.34	0.00	105.67	105.67
Atilano	0.00	120.67	120.67	0.00	93.67	93.67	0.00	1.33	1.33
Chico*	0.00	52.00	52.00	48.00	4.00	52.00	167.00	11.00	178.00
Ramirez*	22.67	69.00	91.67	37.33	19.00	56.33	98.00	17.00	115.00
Thompson*	0.00	136.67	136.67	0.00	90.67	90.67	0.00	115.00	115.00
Meyers	0.00	119.33	119.33	0.00	107.00	107.00	0.00	149.67	149.67
Arnesen	0.00	139.33	139.33	0.00	124.00	124.00	0.00	93.67	93.67
Mandel	0.00	134.67	134.67	0.00	152.33	152.33	0.00	160.67	160.67

Note: The MiLB IPs for Detwiler, Meyers, and Mandel include their college IP. Update: Per a comment, added 11 2/3IP to Detwiler’s 2008 total for the Arizona Fall League.

Lannan seems likely to pitch out the string. And I would not be surprised to see Mock and perhaps Stammen extended out through the end of 2009 (with perhaps a focus on removing them after 5IP). That means the Nationals are likely looking at replacing Balester and especially Martin in the September timeframe. It’s no sure thing that Martis, Detwiler, Atilano, or Estrada are going to have many innings to give in relief of either guy, but I would expect to see no more than three of those guys provide five innings starts in September  Atilano has already seen an increase of 3oIP from 2008 to 2009 and I’m not sure if the Nationals will want to bring him up to sit in the bullpen. UPDATE:  Courtesy of Mark Zuckerman at the Times, it most likely won’t be Matt Chico … “The left-hander, though, is being held to a strict limit of 90 innings this season, and general manager Mike Rizzo said he’s not likely to appear in the majors next month because of that.”

I listed the other starters from Syracuse and Harrisburg as other potential options. I strongly doubt that Meyers or Mandel are considerations for reason involving both innings and contractual option status. No need to start their clocks when they are quickly approaching innings limits. That leaves a pair of lefthanders, Horacio Ramirez and Aaron Thompson. If push comes to shove, I’d guess Ramirez would get the nod given his major league experience. He’d likely only be around for a month and then be removed fromt the 40-man in the off-season. But at this point, I’ll say the Nationals hold at adding no more than three starters (Detwiler [2], Martis [3], & update … Estrada [4]).

Relievers

I would think this is where the Nats can best protect their young arms by adding four or five relievers to shore up the bullpen. None of these guys are on the 40-man roster, but the most likely options are:

• RHP Zech Zinicola (in Syracuse)
• RHP Zack Segovia (in Syracuse)
• RHP Josh Wilkie (in Syracuse)
• RHP Clint Everts (in Syracuse)
• RHP Carlos Martinez (in Harrisburg)
• LHP Jack Spradlin (in Syracuse)
• LHP Yunior Novoa (in Syracuse)
• LHP Justin Jones (in Harrisburg)

Segovia has had prior major league experience and has experience as a starter but has seen 2009 success out of the bullpen. He offers the Nationals the option of using him as a long reliever/innings eater in September so I am going to give Segovia [5] a nod as a September call-up.

The next two guys I think get a shot are personal favorites, each for the same reason but from two distinctly different starting off points. Both have worked themselves into the Nationals plans climbing the organizational ladder over the past couple of seasons. The first is Everts. He was the Expos 2002 first round draft pick out of high school in Texas. The ceiling was high for Everts but his career was derailed by TJ surgery and it appeared his future in the major leagues had passed. But a move to the bullpen midway through 2007 and an impressive 2009 (thus far) has put him back on the prospect map. Over 54 1/3IP at three levels (Potomac, Harrisburg & Syracuse), Everts has a 1.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 63 strikeouts and 19 walks. Always known to have a devestating curveball, Everts has excelled out of the pen. A September call-up will also likely give us an idea if he is part of the future in Washington because Everts will be a minor league free agent at the end of the 2009 season and if he is not added in September, I’m not sure he’ll be here in 2010. Count me in on the reclamation story and add Everts [6].

The other personal favorite of mine is Wilkie, an undrafted free agent signed out of George Washington in 2006. Guys like that are normally signed as organizational players to fill out the GCL or Vermont rosters and might stick around for a season or two if the a role exists on the back of Hagerstown or Potomac’s roster. But Wilkie did something unexpected, he performed … well. He has worked his way from a righthanded mop-up guy to a key part of the bullpen of the 2008 Carolina League champion Potomac Nationals where he was named Potomac’s pitcher of the year. His 2009 has seen him continue his rise through the organization with five saves between Harrisburg and Syracuse. His best pitch is his changeup and it has drawn raves at every level at which he has played. Wilkie caught my eye back in 2007 at Hagerstown and I really root for him more than just about any other player in organization. Joining Everts as a feel-good story, I’ll add Wilkie [7].

Seeing a need for another lefthander, I’d guess one of Novoa or Jones gets the call in September. Based on production in 2009, I’ll give the nod to Novoa [8].

Bats

Left from the 40-man in the minors are three guys (Montz, Desmond, & Maxwell). I think the Montz ship may have sailed given a demotion from Syracuse to Harrisburg in 2009. I don’t see him getting the third catcher call. If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say Gustavo Molina [9] gets the call from Syracuse as the third catcher replacing Montz on the roster.

I think that both Maxwell [10] and Desmond [11] also get the Septmber call. Maxwell can serve as the fifth/sixth outfielder off of the bench and a defensive replacement late in games. In my opinion, I would like to see Desmond up in September and moreover given the starting shortstop role for the final month of the season. There is no better time than now to see what he can do at the major league level. I’d hope to see this paired with moving Cristian Guzman to 2B with an eye towards the off-season and 2010. The Nationals have made it clear they are interested in defense up the middle and it might be wise to see how well Desmond and Guzman can handle themselves up the middle.

Anyone else?

That puts us at 11 players added for September. The one thing I have not considered is if the Nationals were to deal someone currently on the 25-man. I’m not going to try and guess but if someone like Ronnie Belliard or Ron Villone are traded, additional spots might be available.

We have reports that 2009 draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen are not going to be recalled so we can exclude them.

If the Nats were to add another player, I would imagine it being another bat, perhaps someone who can fill in at multiple positions. Considerations there are guys like Pete Orr, Seth Bynum, Leonard Davis, and Joel Guzman. At this point, I’m not sure any of them get the call (though Bynum has the same feel good story of undrafted to majors as Wilkie). That means my best guess of the September additions are the following eleven players:

1. CA Gustavo Molina [has to be added]
2. IF Ian Desmond
3. OF Austin Kearns
4. OF Justin Maxwell
5. LHSP Ross Detwiler
6. RHSP Shairon Martis
7. UPDATE: RHSP Marco Estrada (not Matt Chico)
8. RHRP Zack Segovia [has to be added]
9. RHRP Clint Everts [has to be added]
10. RHRP Josh Wilkie [has to be added]
11. LHRP Yunior Novoa [has to be added]