I spent Saturday afternoon/evening away from my computer so it was not until first thing this morning that I saw the Peter Gammons note on Stephen Strasburg’s rumored demands.
Some club officials think that if Washington takes San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick, Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50M) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect
Fifty million dollars.
Wow.
That number is nearly five times the amount given to the next highest draft total, Mark Prior and his five year $10.5M back in 2001. That’s six times what David Price received as the #1 overall selection in 2007 ($8.5 million, including a $5.6 million signing bonus).
First, I put very little credence in this as fait accompli. This is typical posturing from Scott Boras. There is a large contingent of baseball fans who feel Boras is bad for the game and will suggest this is another example of why he should go away. I try to remain a bit more pragmatic. Boras is good at his job. He is really good at his job. His primary responsibility is to maximize his client’s financial opportunities.
While there is not a slot bonus system in MLB, the First Year Player Draft does cap what the top talent can receive in compensation through a recommended slot bonus system. Here are the signing bonuses for some of the top players over the past few seasons:
| Year | Player | Bonus |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Tim Beckham | $6.15M |
| Pedro Alvarez | $6.4M (a) | |
| Eric Hosmer | $6M | |
| Buster Posey | $6.2M | |
| 2007 | David Price | $8.5M (a) |
| Matt Wieters | $6M |
(a) signed a major league contract
Players look for huge paydays coming out of the draft because they realize that they are not going to see their next big payday for at a minimum six years (often much longer).
When a player is drafted, the signing team does not have to add them the 40-man roster for four (collegians) or five (high schoolers) years; they then control their salaries for the first three years on the 40-man roster and have additional input in three additional years of arbitration. That can add up to ten or eleven years!
Now I do realize that teams are taking a risk on drafted players. Baseball America answered a question on the track record of your average first round draft pick
In terms of significant careers (1,000 at-bats, 300 innings or 100 pitching appearances), 42.1 percent of the first-rounders from 1965-2004 have achieved that distinction
Basically a coin flip.
The odds are likely somewhat better at the top of the draft, but there still is risk on the part of the team.
What Boras is attempting to do is provide Strasburg is short circuit the arbitration process. Strasburg will sign his first professional contract at 21 years old. If he is on the 25-man from day one, he could be a full free agent after the 2015 season when he would be 28 years old and in line for a huge payday as a potential frontline starter entering his prime. Boras is requesting that whoever selects Strasburg immediately place him on the 40-man roster and ostensibly require that team to keep him on the 25-man for six seasons, expediting his time until full free agency. A team will still retain the ability to option him to the minors for a minimum of three seasons, but given the upfront investment, it puts pressure on the organization to get a return on their investment by using him at the major league level (why pay a major league salary to a player on your minor league team?). It’s a huge risk on a player who has not proven himself against professional hitters.
While I don’t believe that Strasburg is going to end up with a six-year $50 million contract, leaking a story like this in March can certainly make a 5-year $20 million contract look more “reasonable.” Don’t you think?
#1 by Pilchard - March 22nd, 2009 at 10:02
I think that Boras knows that he has ‘hand’ and he will get every penny out of the Nats that he can. Strasburg will not sign until 11:59pm on August 15th if at all. The Nats really don’t have any alternatives here will be interesting to see what the commissioner’s office does with this situation as they have been very adamant about keeping signing bonuses in line.
#2 by SlowPitch63 - March 22nd, 2009 at 10:23
If the draft is ruled by the CBA or a consent degree then MLB is severely restricted. If not, the easiest thing to do would be to extend the time the draftee is club “property” and allow the clubs more than two motnhs to sign them. I would say if the amateur player continues to be an amateur then present rules apply but if he plays professionally then the club owns his draft rights for an additional year for every year he plays professionally.
Let’s play two!
#3 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 10:46
SP63, Aaron Crow is a professional…we don’t own his rights any longer.
I know you’re talking about in the future, but since this has been going on for so long it isn’t going to change.
#4 by Sue Dinem - March 22nd, 2009 at 11:07
Indeed. It was Boras that forced the change from “Amateur” to “First Year” player draft by having players sign with independent-league teams in the mid-1990s. Now it appears Japan is his new lever of choice.
But also recall that the same things that have been said about Boras the past two decades were said about Marvin Miller in the 60s and 70s and look how that turned out.
People hate Boras because he is so good at what he does and because he’s usually the smartest guy at the negotiating table, just like Miller was (and both were never too afraid or too shy to let that fact be known).
#5 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:02
Sue hit the nail on the head.
Scott isn’t an evil guy. He isn’t even a bad guy.
#6 by nationals fan - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:12
I would not be held “hostage” by such demands. The financial situation in the world today makes this kind of decision for PROSPECTIVE talent an easy one. I would hope the Nationals go in another direction, and let some other organization make a bad financial decision. This kind of insanity when it comes to money is why the country is in the mess that it is. Let him go to Japan! I don’t care if I ever see him in MLB, as there is plenty of talent in this world to build an organization around. Pitchers are a huge gamble anyway. It was said that Prior had “perfect mechanics”, developed by pitching coach “guru” Tom House, and you can see what happened to him. Boras is laughing at MLB owners because he knows that this type of GREED is what motivates some of the wealthy owners, and at least one of them will give in to his demands and give away this absurd amount of money in hopes of making even more money. Its really pathetic.
#7 by SlowPitch63 - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:18
Andrew, You’re right I was just speculating on a way MLB could switch the balance of power back to the clubs, over whom they have some control. They have zero control over the draftee beyond the two months. Thanks, Sue, I was aware of some of that. I’m not anti-player, anti-agent or anti- Boras although I am anti the current obsession with pitch counts. Enjoyed the discussion. Let’s play two!
#8 by Brian Oliver - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:34
The threat of going to Japan seems unlikely.
The Red Sox signed a Japanese amateur this off-season (Junichi Tazawa) which was the first time a Japanese amateur bypassed their professional league to sign with the US. While signing Strasburg could be seen as tit-for-tat, I’m not sure the Japanese leagues want to open that door. If they start signing US amateurs, it’s only a matter of time before MLB teams start raiding the Japanese amateur league in full force.
#9 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:36
Draft Strasburg with the first pick, if you fail to sign Stephen you DO get the second pick in 2010. And atleast you have a chance to sign him IF you TAKE the chance.
With the tenth pick you have to take a player and know you can sign them since you won’t get anything next year for losing the player.
#10 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:37
…I was wearing my Dana Brown/Mike Rizzo hat there.
#11 by Tom - March 22nd, 2009 at 12:51
So Strasburg signs a guaranteed MLB from the get go. Sign it and put him on the 25 man and make him earn it from the day he signs. All the scouts say he walks on water and is the next coming. Why waste his talent in the minors? How come you can do it with a position player (Zimmerman) and be successful, but won’t try it with a pitcher?
#12 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 13:19
no doubt if he signs early enough he’d be up for good by September, assuming he isn’t hurt.
#13 by Steveo - March 22nd, 2009 at 13:56
I agree with Andrew, it would be in both the Nationals and Strasburgs best interest to sign early and not wait till the August deadline. For the Nats they don’t have two months of public pressure and ugly negotiaitions. And for Strasburg he can go to the minors and be ready for a sept. or even earlier call up. A lot of pitchers who sign late end up getting shutdown b/c they are out of game shape and need to build their arm back up.
#14 by joNAThan - March 22nd, 2009 at 17:08
He’s going to get two things: 1) a record deal and 2) a MLB deal. I agree with someone above who stated something like 5 years and 20-25 million. If he is up by September and in the rotation in 2010 and has the success many think he will, he’ll receive a large salary via abritation, so either way the Nats are going to have to pay. I would however hope that its more reasonable than $50 million! MLB should adopt the NBA policy and place a cap on draft choice contracts..remember when #1 picks like Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson signed for $70 million..ultimately the vets put an end to that.
Go Nats.
#15 by Mark L - March 22nd, 2009 at 17:08
If Scott Boras tells you it’e daytime, it’s a very good idea to walk across the room to see for yourself.
#16 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 22nd, 2009 at 18:08
joNAThan, I believe if the player signs a MLB deal there is no arbitration 3 years down the road, just free agency at the end of the contract. I could be wrong, but the purpose of the big league deal is to get paid higher than you would if you didn’t sign one. That seems to eliminate the whole arbitration thing.
There are many ways the contract/bonus could be structured.
#17 by Tom - March 22nd, 2009 at 18:22
So make it a 5 or 6 year deal.
#18 by joNAThan - March 22nd, 2009 at 19:14
Andrew, I stand corrected (I think, right?!?). I’m not sure of the rule, I was going off what someone said over at Nats journal. Either way, he’s gonna get paid. I hope the Nats built some goodwill with Boras during the Tex saga.
#19 by Ted Leavengood - March 22nd, 2009 at 19:33
I’m not sure this is posturing by Boras or just other teams roiling the waters–feeding Gammons. The more the waters can be muddied, the more likely Strasburg falls past the first pick to someone else. San Diego has a huge incentive to convince us to pass on Strasburg. Stan Kasten responded to the article–Nationals Journal–and he doesn’t look like he will be distracted by the background noise.
#20 by Jeff E. - March 23rd, 2009 at 03:16
Am I the onyl one here who gets the feeling that the Strasburg open air convertible ride into Nat Park is ballooning as big as the Cubs built up mark prior and the Cub PR (BS) machine built up Corey patterson. too bad Matt Chico’s rehab schedule is not further along because he could lend some 4th starter IP this spring. Perhaps kasten looks for a cheap waiver wire option before April 6th?
#21 by Jeff - March 23rd, 2009 at 07:10
Give him the money. He’s THAT good. I’m sure some of you (Redskins fans) talking about the state of the economy had no problem outbidding for Haynesworth W/100 million (misleading contract #’s)…
#22 by Marc - March 23rd, 2009 at 07:32
Ok, firmly wearing my Mike Rizzo hat here:
Anything north of 20-ish, and I’m calling in both MLB and the Player’s Union - that kind of deal breaks the system, and like Kasten said, even the Union has an interest here, because if they’re doling out multi-year megabuck deals to amateurs, they’re not spending it on the Kearnses of the world (who are union members).
At 16-18, I’m swallowing hard, putting him on the 40-man and rolling him out in a September call-up.
#23 by Pilchard - March 23rd, 2009 at 09:42
$16-18 million would more than double any bonus paid to a MLB draft pick (that does not include Bobby Seay, Travis Lee and a couple of others who were ruled free agents because they were not tendered a contract). While I agree that Strasburg is going to break the bonus record, $16-18 million is too much…. I hope.