Nationals Farm Authority

That’s a strong rotation for the GCL, there’s no radio for those games is there?

Brad Peacock is putting together a nice year also, still only 21

The SYR finish is disappointing as they were in great position just a week ago. The bullpen, which had been so good, has really faltered in the stretch and their hitting with RISP (3 for 20 last night) has been awful. LD, who I thought would give them a boost, is hitting .136. 0-5 last night, 3 K’s. They need a miracle to get in.

I’m trying to figure out why Tim Foli is batting Desmond 8th when he’s hitting .346. I’m sure there is a strategy there, I just need some of you experts to help me figure it out.

I would vote that the Nats avoid all the hype and the amount of time it’s going to take Harper to get to the majors and take a player who’s going to have more of an immediate impact. They need help a lot sooner than later. Look for the best college hitter available.

Syracuse’s magic number to tie for the wild card is eleven with seven to play, to win it’s 12. They play sub-.500 teams the rest of the way, with four on the road and three at home (the last three). Their home/away splits are basically even.

Potomac’s magic number to tie is eight with six to play, to win it’s nine. All six games are at home against sub-.500 teams in the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, the PNats are 8 games over .500 at home but all year long, they’ve been a much better road team (44-27 vs. 32-28). If the two teams tie, Potomac will get the home game, as the Nationals will have a better overall percentage. It’s hard to say who that will favor as the Blue Rocks have also been outstanding on the road (44-26 vs. 36-28).

The Senators’ magic number to tie is eleven with eight to play, to win it’s 12. They play +.500 teams the rest of the way with three at home (vs. Erie), five on the road (all at Bowie). They have been slightly worse on the road vs. home (36-31 vs. 31-36). They are 4-9 vs. the Baysox.

None of these teams will play the current wild-card leader.

I’d have to argue that Syracuse has the best chance of the three Nats franchises, since they’re playing losing teams the rest of the way and have played as well on the road as at home.

Harrisburg does have to leapfrog three teams, and while they play two of them, one of those teams plays all its games at home (Bowie), and the Baysox play last-place Binghamton for the next two. If Erie manages to beat back the Senators over the next three, its “reward” is to play Akron on the road for the last four. And finally, current wild-card leader Reading finishes the string current second-place New Britain, and then first-place Connecticut — all on the road.

If Reading remains ahead when it comes to play Connecticut, it should be in good position because (a) Connecticut will be in cruise-control mode (b) the crowds will be sparse due to the holiday weekend, and the lame-duck status of the franchise (another story entirely, but chances are good that another affiliated team will relocate there for next season).

Potomac’s probably last because the team they’re chasing, Wilmington, is playing the league’s doormat (Myrtle Beach) the next two games, then also-ran Frederick, all at home. Realistically, the Blue Rocks only need to win three of the next five games, while Potomac has to be near-perfect (five or six out of six).

Always take the best player available. Period.

Here is a question, assuming the Nats end up with the worst record. Which of these scenarios would you like the Nats to follow:

Scenario 1 – The Nats draft Bryce Harper who is considered the best talent in the draft. He is also a Boris client who will demand a contract probably close to Strasburg. Because Harper will demand such a large signing bonus, the Nats will therefore draft very conservatively over the next 5-6 rounds. Looking for signability as much as talent. This by many reports is exactly what they did during this years draft. There were more talented players available when they made the selections of players like Kobernus, Holder, Morris, etc. but because so much time and money was locked up in Strasburg they needed to draft players they knew they could sign at slot or under slot.

Or Scenario 2 – The Nats pass on Harper and the $12 million or so it would take to sign him and instead sign the best available college player (maybe even another High school player) for considerably less money than Harper. For arguments sake, lets say they sign the best available college player for $8 million. They then use that $4 million of savings and draft more aggressively over the first 7-8 rounds. Draft the more talented players who are slipping because of signability concerns and are willing to go over MLB recommended slot in order to get these players signed.

In the end they will end up spending roughly the same amount of money. In Scenario one I could see them ending up with the most talented player in the draft, but possibly only end up with 1-2 players that have top 100 talent in the draft. Scenario two, you pass on the most talented player but possibly end up signing 4-5 players who have top 100 talent. I personally would prefer scenario 2! What do you guys think

Brian, I totally agree with you that this is totally what they should do. Problem is that I dont have any faith that this what they WILL do. Until ownership/front office proves me wrong, I think these decisions will continue to be an either/or situation.

estuartj- Where do you see he is 1 year away from being a mlb hitter? I assumed he’d spend at least 2 to 3 years in the minors

What’s up with Luis Atilano? A rotation of Estrada, Atilano, Detwiler and Thompson could pretty much take AAA Syracuse to the playoffs and beyond. Have to figure they are bound for a major league audition at some point soon?

Brian when is Tom Milone’s next start. I would like to see what all the talk is about. Numbers look great. Could you see him in Harrisburg at the start of next season?

CJrugger

All depends on how quickly he develops. He is by no means flawless. If you watch videos of him one thing that people have noticed is that he has begun to lunge at the ball over the last year or so. I read an article somewhere talking about this. One thought is that with all the pressure and hype now surrounding him that he feels he needs to “justify” it by hitting these monster 500 foot homeruns everywhere he goes. He is trying to so hard to generate as much bat speed as he can to hit these monster homeruns that he is actually developing some bad habits. I was a Division I pitcher and the first thing I thought when I saw him swing was that if you made a mistake he would absolutely embarrass you, but he was so off balance that unless you made a mistake he probably wouldnt be all that difficult of an out if you changed speeds on him.

Obviously this is the first thing they are going to try and correct and there is no doubt that this kid will be a stud, but he is in no way flawless. Whether or not he is ready by 19 or whether he needs a few more years will depend on how long it takes him to break some of these bad habits he has picked up. When he does though, watch out!

GCL Nationals beat the GCL Marlins 3-1. Only one more to go!