Nationals Farm Authority

Today is the big day. Some time over the next 15 plus hours, we will find out if the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg will agree on a contract or whether the Nationals will have to settle for the 1A in 2010.

My gut feeling is that a deal will get done. Both sides have too much to lose not agreeing to a deal if the rumored numbers are to be believed (somewhere between $12 and 16 million). My personal hope is that the Nationals are willing to push the limits of their bonus to around $18-20 million. Boras’ demands of $50 million and comparisons to Daisuke Matsuzaka are silly, given that Matsuzaka was procured under a different process. But I also think using a deal from eight years ago (Mark Prior) as the baseline is also questionable, things have changed.

I understand people’s concern with that amount of money for an unproven pitcher, but the time for taking a principled stand was before Strasburg was selected. The Nationals draft and signings to date appear geared towards keeping the lion’s share of the budget available to sign Strasburg. Unlike many MLB teams, the Nationals have yet to break MLB’s slot recommended bonuses by an appreciable amount. In fact, they have made several below slot signings with all indications that they are earmarking those dollars for Strasburg. My question is if they do not sign Strasburg, where are those dollars going to go? Are they again going to make some last minute agreements with some unexpected draft picks? Or do those dollars simply go away.

At the end of today, we will know the answer but I honestly believe the Nationals cannot waste another first round selection. While the story that is being sold to us is that they’ll find value at 1A in 2010, assertions by some that the Nationals will find 90-95% of Strasburg there in 2010 are at best absurd. The expected value of the #2 player is nowhere near what the first overall player will be. Next year’s draft (if it includes Strasburg) will be Strasburg and Bryce Harper in some order at 1 & 2 and then a huge gap before the third best player. If the Nationals are hesitant to get into a large dollar negotiation with Strasburg & Boras in 2009, how can we expect them to want to wade into negotiations with Bryce Harper (& Boras) in 2010 when I believe the bonus demands are going to make the Strasburg ones look minimal?  And given the fact that I doubt Strasburg would grant the Nats the right to redraft him, the Nationals are looking at no better than the third best player in 2010. And to be honest with you, I do not foresee the Nationals selecting the third best player in the draft at 1A because that player will know the Nationals are over a barrel with that pick as it is not compensated again for being unsigned. That means the Nationals will reach for a less talented player who might be more of a #10-15 but willing to take a deal to sign at 1A. Not the ideal return on a pick that is now Strasburg.

I hope (and expect) a deal to get done and if you were ask me to guess, I’ll put the final deal at $17-18 million. The bonus will be somewhere around $8-9 million with the rest in a major league deal designed to get Strasburg to arbitration and free agency as quickly as possible.

Syracuse

• Friday – Defeated Rochester 4-3 (box). LHP Ross Detwiler won his first game of the season, holding Rochester to five hits over six scoreless innings while striking out five. RHP Josh Wilkie pitched a scoreless inning of relief, allowing one hit and striking out one. And RHP Zack Segovia earned his fourth save with a scoreless ninth. RF Kory Casto was 4/4 with a run & RBI; 3B Pete Orr was 1/3 with one RBI; DH Dayrle Ward was 1/4 with one RBI; SS Ian Desmond was 0/2 with a walk & run scored; and CA Jhonathan Solano was 1/2 with a walk, run & RBI.
• Saturday – Defeated Rochester 9-3 (box). LHP Horacio Ramirez gave up on run on six hits and two walks over 6IP with two strikeouts. RHP Clint Everts pitched 2/3 of an inning striking out one and LHP Jack Spradlin pitched a scoreless inning, also striking out one. CF/LF Norris Hopper was 2/4 with a double, run & RBI; Orr was 2/5 with a double, homer, three RBI & three runs scored; LF/1B Mike Morsewas 1/4 with a three-run homer; Casto was 2/5 with a run scored; and Desmond was 3/4 with a double & two runs scored.
• Sunday – Lost 8-1 to Rochester (box). RHP Andrew Kowntook the loss surrendering six runs on seven hits and two walks over 2 1/3IP. Spradlin gave up a run on three hits over 2 2/3IP with three strikeouts. Hopper was 1/3 with two stolen bases; Morse was 1/3 with a double; and Desmond was 2/3 with a double & run scored.
• Today – Syracuse RHP Shairon Martis (3-2, 4.98) at Rochester (pitcher TBA) 12:05PM

Harrisburg

• Friday – Lost to Trenton 4-3 (box/gamer). RHP Luis Atilano took the loss, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits and a walk over 6 2/3IP while striking out four. LHP Cory VanAllen struck out one over 1 1/3 innings of relief. SS Freddie Bynum was 2/5 with a run scored; CF Francisco Plasencia was 1/3 with a run & RBI; 2B Leonard Davis was 1/5 with one RBI; and RF Ricardo Nanita was 2/4 with a double & run scored.
• Saturday – Defeated Trenton 2-1 (box/gamer). LHP Matt Chico threw five no-hit innings, walking one and striking out five but did not factor in the decision. LHP Justin Jones threw two scoreless innings of relief, allowing one hit and striking out one. LHP Atahualpa Severino allowed an unearned run on two hits and a walk over 2IP with two strikeouts but picked up the win when Joel Guzmanwas hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth. Bynum was 2/3; Davis was 1/4 with a run scored; and DH Marvin Lowrance was 2/4 with a double and RBI.
• Sunday – Defeated Trenton 3-1 (box/gamer). RHPs Brad Meyers and Drew Storencombined on the six-hit victory. Meyers allowed a run on five hits over 7IP with seven strikeouts and Storen allowed one hit over 2IP with two strikeouts to earn his third save of the season. Davis was 2/3 with a double & two runs scored; 1B/LF Bill Rhinehart was 1/3 with one RBI; and CA Sean Rooney was 0/2 with a sacrifice fly.
• Notes – Geoff Morrow of the Patriot News has a feature on Storen
• Today – No game scheduled.

Potomac

• Friday – Defeated Wilmington 8-1 (box). LHP Tom Milone allowed an unearned run on four hits over 7IP while striking out six. RHP Cole Kimball and LHP Pat McCoy pitched the final two perfect innings. RF Michael Burgess was 3/4 with one RBI; 1B Chris Marrero was 0/3 with a walk & run scored; SS Danny Espinosa was 0/3 with a walk & run scored; 3B Tim Pahuta was 3/4 with a double, homer, two runs & two RBI; and 2B Michael Martinez was 1/5 with a double, run & two RBI.
• Saturday – Defeated Wilmington 3-1 (box). RHP Brad Peacock picked up his second win for Potomac, allowing an unearned run on three hits and two walks over 6IP with two strikeouts. RHP Hassan Penastruck out three and walked two over 2 2/3 scoreless innings of relief. And, Kimball earned his seventh save getting the final out. Burgess was 0/2 with two walks & a stolen base; Marrero was 0/4; Espinosa was 1/4 with two stolen bases; CA Devin Ivany was 2/4 with a double; and CF Boomer Whiting was 2/4 with a triple, run & RBI.
• Sunday – Defeated Wilmington 4-3 (box/gamer). LHP Will Atwood gave up two runs on five hits and three walks over 5IP with seven strikeouts, but did not figure in the decision. RHP Dan Leathermanpicked up the win with three scoreless innings of relief. Espinosa was 0/4; DH Jesus Valdezwas 2/5 with a triple & RBI; Burgess was 2/5 with one RBI; Marrero was 2/5 with one RBI; and Martinez was 3/3 with two doubles, three runs & one RBI.
• Today – No game scheduled.

Hagerstown

• Friday – Lost to Augusta 6-3 (box). RHP Marcos Frias gave up two runs on five hits over 6IP with four strikeouts. CF Chris Curran was 2/5 with two doubles, a run & RBI; 2B Stephen Lombardozzi was 1/4 with a run scored; 1B Tyler Moore was 2/4 with one RBI; and LF Robby Jacobsen was 3/4 with a run scored.
• Saturday – Lost to Augusta 5-4 (box). RHP A.J. Morrissurrendered four runs on four hits and three walks over 5IP while striking out two. Lombardozzi was 2/4 with a stolen base, run & RBI; CA Derek Norris was 1/4 with a run & RBI; SS Steve Souza was 1/3 with a double & stolen base; and 3B Nick Arata was 2/4 with two doubles & a run scored.
• Sunday – Defeated Augusta 4-1 (box). The Suns snapped a seven-game losing streak as RHP Pat Lehman struck out five over 6IP, allowing a run on four hits. LHP Ricardo Pecinapicked up the win with three scoreless innings of relief, striking out three. Curran was 1/2 with a stolen base & RBI; Lombardozzi was 1/3 with a double & run scored; Norris was 0/3 with a walk & run scored; Moore was 3/4 with two RBI; and Arata was 3/4 with two runs scored.
• Today – Augusta (pitcher TBA) at Hagerstown RHP Paul Demny (2-9, 4.94) 7:05PM

Vermont

• Friday – Defeated State College 5-3 (box/gamer). RHP Matt Swynenberg allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over 4 2/3IP while striking out three. LHP Clayton Dill picked up the win, striking out four over two scoreless innings of relief. 2B Francisco Soriano was 2/3 with a double & two runs scored; SS Sean Nicol was 0/2 with a run & RBI; RF J.P. Ramirez was 1/4 with a stolen base; LF Destin Hood was 1/2 with a homer & three RBI; and CF J.R. Higley was 0/2 with one RBI.
• Saturday – Defeated State College 4-3 (box/gamer). LHP Paul Applebee made his Vermont debut, allowing two runs on four hits over 5 1/3IP with two strikeouts. LHP Evan Bronson threw 2 2/3 scoreless innings of relief and RHP Jose Pinalespicked up the win with a scoreless inning. Nicol was 2/4; Soriano was 0/3 with two walks; Ramirez was 0/4 with one RBI; Hood was 0/4; 3B Justin Bloxom was 1/2 with a run scored; and DH Yhonson Lopez was 1/4 with a triple, run & two RBI.
• Sunday – Lost to State College 10-5 (box/gamer). LHP Chad Jenkinssurrendered five runs on four hits and three walks over 2IP. Soriano was 1/5 with a run; Nicol was 1/4 with a run; Ramirez was 2/5 with two runs & one RBI; and Hood was 1/4 with a run scored.
• Today – No game scheduled. NY/Penn League All-Star break.

GCL Nationals

• Friday – Defeated GCL Astros 18-5 (box). LHP Graham Hicks gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk over 5IP whiles triking out seven. RHP Dean Weaver pitched two scoreless innings of relief, striking out three. CF Eury Perez was 3/5 with a double, run & two RBI; 3B Adrian Sanchez was 1/5 with a double & run scored; B hendry Jimenez was 2/3 with one RBI & three runs scored; 1B Brett Newsomewass 4/5 with a double, homer & five RBI; SS Justino Cuevas was 2/6 with a double & three runs scored; DH Yeurys Tejeda was 2/5 with a homer, three runs & five RBI; and LF Naoya Washiya was 3/5 with two runs & two RBI.
• Saturday – Defeated GCL Mets 4-3 (box). RHP Brandon Kingpicked up the win, allowing two hits over five shutout innings while striking out six. Perez was 2/4 with a run scored; Cuevas was 2/4 with a double, run & RBI; and Newsome was 2/4 with a double, run & RBI.
• Sunday – Game with GCL Marlins postponed by rain.
• Today – No game scheduled.

DSL Nationals

• Friday – Defeated DSL Cubs1 5-2 (box). RHP Manuel Rivera gave up two runs on four hits and three walks over 5 2/3IP while striking out three. LHP Raudy Almonte picked up the win with 2 1/3 shutout innings of relief and RHP Rafael Guerrero picked up the save striking out two in an inning of work. CF Jesus Morales was 2/4 with a run scored; LF Elvin Rodriguez was 3/4 with two runs scored; CA Bill Pena was 3/4 with a run & RBI; and 1B Juan Urdaneta was 2/4 with one RBI.
• Saturday – Lost to DSL Orioles 9-0 (box). LHP Gregory Baeztook the loss, allowing just an unearned run on one hit and two walks over 6IP with three strikeouts. Urdaneta had the only DSL Nats hit.
• Sunday – No game scheduled
• Today – DSL Nationals at DSL White Sox 10:30AM