White Sox Rumors
The trade deadline is only three days away and the name that most Nationals fans have heard discussed most often is 1B Adam Dunn and the team most often linked to Dunn is the Chicago White Sox. Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported yesterday that
Any deal for Dunn would have to include Daniel Hudson, the White Sox’s top pitching prospect. The Nationals also want one of three White Sox prospects: catcher Tyler Flowers, outfielder Jordan Danks or injured infielder Brent Morel
Who are these four guys?
- RHP Dan Hudson (FutureSox scouting report)- 23-year old, 6’4″ 220-lb starting pitcher was the Whit Sox #3 prospect according to Baseball America’s pre-season rankings. According to BA, his strengths are “Hudson throws three solid pitches from a three-quarters arm slot with a crossfire delivery, a la Jered Weaver. His motion gives him natural deception, making his lively 91-93 mph fastball seem even quicker. His second-best pitch is his changeup, which elicits swings and misses. He also has a low-80s slider with average tilt, and he occasionally throws a slow curve. He pounds the strike zone and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate.” but that is countered with concerns that his delivery can get out of whack. From everything I’ve read, he projects best as a #3 or 4 starter. He was 11-4 with 108K and 31 BB over 93 1/3IP in Triple-A and has been 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA, 14K and 11B in 15 2/3 major league innings in 2010. You can slot him in at #3 or 4 in the Nats current rotation (and higher if Strasburg is out for any extended time).
- CA Tyler Flowers (FutureSox scouting report)- 24-year old, 6’4″ 220-lb right-handed catcher. Flowers was ranked as the Sox #2 overall pre-season prospect by BA. Their description of his strengths, “Flowers combines light-tower power with plate discipline, making it easy to project his bat into the middle of a big league lineup. He generates his pop through his strength and size, and he has good hand-eye coordination and advanced pitch recognition. Pitchers like throwing to him because he’s a good communicator and works hard on gameplans. Managers rated him the top defensive catcher in the Double-A Southern League last year. He has an average arm and has improved his footwork and release, thowing out 29 percent of basestealers last year.” Thus far in 2010, he is hitting 217/327/453 in 79 games for Triple-A Charlotte with 16 homers and 49 RBI; he’s struck out 104 time and walked 40 times over 276AB. He could immediately replace Wil Nieves as the backup catcher and provide the Nationals a healthy option as #2 for 2011.
- 3B Brent Morel (FutureSox socuting report)- 23-year old, 6’2″ 220-lb right-handed 3B. BA had him as the Sox #4 pre-season prospect. BA’s strengths, “Morel is a manager’s dream, with solid tools, outstanding instincts and a blue-collar work ethic. He’s one of the system’s top pure hitters, making good contact with a compact, line-drive swing. He has excellent pitch recognition and attacks fastballs. He has the power to hit 15 homers per year, and could show more as he matures. He runs well enough for a third baseman and is a good baserunner, but he doesn’t project as a basestealer. He’s a natural third baseman with first-step quickness and a plus arm.” A drawback is his lack of power for a corner IF. He started the season in Double-A where he hit 326/376/440 over 49G and has to date, hit 279/317/402 in Triple-A. Obviously, playing 3B is out of the question, what would be interesting is whether or not Morel could play 2B.
- OF Jordan Danks (FutureSox scouting report) – 6’4″ 210-lb left-handed hitting outfielder. BA had him as the Sox pre-season #5 prospect. BA’s strengths “Danks is an excellent athlete and a hard-nosed player. He’s a natural hitter with good bat speed, gap power, surprising bunting ability and above-average speed. He has the range and instincts to play center field, and he also has a solid-average arm.” He’s battled injuries but could be a solid major league regular center fielder. He is currently listed on the DL, hitting 243/314/377 with 6 homers and 32 RBI in Triple-A. Assuming he’s healthy, he’s a viable option for center in 2011.
I was a big fan of the Gordon Beckham rumors, but also realized there was very little chance of that happening. The White Sox would be crazy to trade their starting 2B for Dunn. The comparison that needs to be made is Dunn versus the potential for two draft picks (this assumes he does not sign an extension).
Hudson and any one of the three above guys is a better return (or more accurately, a known quantity) than the two draft picks they’d receive. The picks we are looking at are likely to be one pick in the #15-30 range (most likely) and one pick in the #31-35 range. If you were to tell me the Nationals could choose from a #4 starting pitcher in the majors and a backup catcher for 2011-2014 or two unknown picks that may develop into something better than that but could also turn into guys that top out in the Sally League, I’ll go with the known quantities.
All that being said, my first preference is extending Dunn for no more than three years. If he isn’t willing to agree to a 3-year deal, I’d strongly consider the offer of Hudson plus one of those three to the unknown of the two draft picks. And the order of preference would be: Flowers, Morel & Danks.
Great analysis Brian. I agree with you, if that is the deal to be made. Wish the postition players numbers were higher. That said, I hope the NATS resign Dunn (and keep Willingham for that matter).
Absolutely. Tyler Flowers is a bigger, stronger version of Derek Norris, but with better defensive skills. Overlooked by a lot of folks watching the Carolina League because of some guy who played for Frederick at the same time. Can’t think of his name. Matt W-something?
@SueD – Flowers intrigues me quite a bit. I’m not counting on seeing Jesus Flores back (sorry Flores fans). And while Derek Norris gets all the buzz, he is still realistically two seasons (minimum) from the majors and relying solely on Pudge again in 2011 is foolhardy.
Unless they move Espinosa to second, the Nats desperately need to get a second baseman in return, even more so than pitching I believe. Like you said Brian, maybe Morel can shift over, but they better be certain cuz they just can’t continue with Kennedy and Guzman any more. Perhaps thru a three way trade? Either way, this is a very important trade deadline. Lots of holes need to be filled and making the right trade(s) can do that.
Fascinating. Thanks, Brian.
I just cringe at the loss of Dunn’s power from the LH side – I don’t have the ‘warm fuzzies’ for available plugins, either at 1B or as a LH hitter with consistent power.
I would be all for a trade witht the white sox. What i dont want to see happen is that 3-way trade being rumored where the nationals would receive Edwin Jackson.
Binm -
I agree and I have not doubt that if the nats trade Dunn they will have the worst record in baseball from here on out. Not only would you lose your only LH power hitter, but you would also lose Zimmerman’s protection. Now having said that, if they could make this trade with the white sox and somehow resign Dunn to a 2-3 year deal in the offseason…. well I guess we can all dream.
Thanks for the rumor rundown Brian, prior to this I had only seen the quote with names, now I have some great analysis from you to go with that! Let’s hope that Dunn is here for the next 3 years but if not I am with you, known prospects are better than unknown picks!
I ranked them in terms of preference as Flowers, Danks, and Morel. Danks got a little rushed this year given his strong AFL performance, and he still profiles as a CF. Morel is a 3B with almost no shot of moving over to first since he lacks the power, so his need to the Nats is zilch other than future trade value.
I like Flowers alot and think he can start in this league. For the rest of this season and beginning of next I’d have him split time with Pudge and then fully take over the starting job. As for Norris he is a couple of years away still and could be used as future trade bait when hopefully the Nats need to make a deadline deal for their postseason run in 2 years.
Flowers and Hudson would easily be worth more than the 2 picks (not to mention the rest of the money Dunn is owed this season and the money it would take to sign the picks, hopefully all that money will be reinvested into the team). I would still guess that there is a 3rd and possibly 4th prospect in any deal, just because so many teams are in on Dunn. Likely they won’t amount to much and it will be based on Hudson-Flowers/Danks/Morel, but maybe the Nats can find someone with some upside or at least a cheap bench/bullpen guy.
I also agree with what was said about not moving Hudson to the D-backs for Jackson. Hudson is no sure thing but the price tag is nice and he could be a solid 3. I know he went to ODU so its a nice local story as well, though makes you wonder if the Nats draft strategy is a little flawed
My preference to Morel is entirely predicated on being able to shift to 2B in the majors. I have no idea if he can but it’s something I’m interested in hearing an answer to. If Morel cannot move to 2B, Danks is definitely the #2 option.
As always, thank you for the information and analysis.
If you were Dunn, would you agree to a three year deal? I guess the money would have to be “over slot” but I wonder if the market for him is 4+ years.
If I’m Dunn, I want as long a deal as possible.
Me too, and since we don’t know what he has been asking for all these rants about signing him are worthless. Just because some other club may ultimately sign him for 4-? years, not doing so does not make the Nats cheap. 3@40-45M seems like a fair offer to me.
If Morel can move to 2B i’ll buy it, something about Danks makes me believe he can still make it, but yeah he is no sure thing.
I think a Dunn deal will be 3 years $14-15 million, with a 4th year option, at $2-3 million. Given how hard it was for Bay to find work I don’t know if Dunn will have an easier time, particularly if he wants to keep playing first. Yankees, Angels, Tigers and possibly White Sox won’t give him that chance. Rays might but won’t offer the money, same with the Rangers I imagine. Maybe a team like the O’s with their young core could offer him a 1B job to start and shift him to DH when he can’t handle it any more, but i don’t think many A.L. clubs will want him in the field. As for the N.L. side Giants are a possiblity, maybe the Cubs if they look to spend big and not rebuild, other than that I don’t see many options.
Brian, you are awesome..I’ve been wanting scouting reports on all these guys and have been too lazy to look em up.
That being said, I would love the return of Hudson and Danks/Morel (if 2B applicable)
What happened to rumors a week ago that the White Sox were giving the Nationals an option of Viciedo OR Hudson and then a second choice. Wouldn’t Viciedo AND Hudson be better than any of the other three. Viciedo is major league ready and why could he not play first base instead of third.
Bay had trouble finding work? I think he got about 85 mil
What is the reasoning for Flower’s troubles this year? I like a healthy Danks more, but all of these packages are less than what I thought Dunn would fetch
ted: While Viciedo has some upside he also has the plate discipline of a 5 year old. I think he is solid but far from a truly elite prospect. I personally would rather have Flowers than him, in addition to Hudson. 1b can be solved with a short term offseason signing (or resigning Dunn) Catcher on the other hand isn’t nearly as easy to fix.
Cjrugger: Bay got his money, i believe it was $66 million (more if the option is picked up) but teams weren’t exactly knocking down his door. Red Sox held firm as did a few other teams expected to be in on him. Dunn will get his money but I don’t think it will be a bidding war like say Tex. was
Could such a thing happen where Dunn/Nats agree to a deal “under the table”, trade him to the ChiSox for prospects, Dunn then refuses a long term deal with the ChiSox, only to hit the open market and sign back with the Nats?
@Greg – Highly unlikely.
In the words of the great Lloyd Christmas, “sooooo you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
Any trade with Chicago Sox reminds me of Reinsdorf leading the owners charge to shut down 1994 and the expos banishment from their October destiny. Keep Dunn until harper is ready!!! Jury is still out on Danks. WhiteSox kids get overhyped as much as Cub kids due to Chicago media.
Tim Raines for Ivan Calderon. another imbalanced trade.
If the Nats trade Dunn, he will not re-sign here.
I had a heard the Rays were interested in Dunn, and I like thier prospects A LOT better than the White Sox.
Brian, why Hudson over two position players? I know that’s what it looks like the Nats are asking for, but if you tell me he’s a 3/4 guy at best, I think we have plenty (Detwiler, Atilano, Mock, Chico, Martis, Lannan, Olsen, Thompson, Peacock) who are similar and plenty of Marquis/Livo types who seem to be annually available. If we think Morel can play 2b and Flowers fits right now, shouldn’t the ask be Morel/Flowers?
@Marc – Sure, I’d prefer the two bats. But the story had the Nats asking for the arm + one of the bats hence my recommendation
I don’t think he trades Dunn. The scuttlebutt seems to indicate Dunn’s reps want to get something done … but wanted a deadline. Rizzo said it would be done on the team’s time with no deadline. I suspect he is using Dunn as bait to help make other moves … I expect both Willingham and Capps to be moved if he can get good return. I think he will hold on to Dunn, for now, while improving the team around he and Zimmerman.
Dunn has had the effect of lots of teams calling him.
I’m tired of constantly starting from scratch. The Beckham trade makes sense but these guys seem like filler, except maybe Flowers. If these guys are the best offer, keep Dunn, play out the year with a major league team rather than the AAA teams we’ve been fielding from July – September the last few years, and try to resign Dunn. Take the picks if not possible. The value of Dunn through end of year plus Dunn resigned or two draft picks if not resigned is greater than any two of these five names (Viciedo as the fifth) from the White Sox organisation.
If they can find value for non-essential parts such as Guzman, Kennedy, Slaten and Harris, then take the best available offer to build for the future, but let’s please keep Dunn, Willingham and Capps.
The only pitcher you listed with #3 stuff is Detwiler.
Guys like Martis, Peacock, Chico and Atilano are AAAA types who should be counted on as nothing more than spot starters.
3′s? Dude, no.
We don’t have anybody in the minors with numbers like Hudson’s! His career BAA is just over .200.
Brian: If you need a third person in a Chisox deal, take a look at Kyle Bellamy. Does Rizzo read this blog?
They may need Espinosa at shortstop. Noting that they drafted Hague 3rd, plus other MI in this year’s draft. Perhaps Soriano continues to improve? Desmond’s bat has yet to equate to a starting shortstop or second baseman.
Yunieski Maya probably a #2, and that would push JZimm to a #3 with Detwiler. If and when it happens.
While we may only have a couple guys who profile as 3′s, we have a ton that profile as #5s. A 3 is Hudsons ceiling. That doesn’t mean he’ll reach it. More than likely, he is a 4 or 5. That is essentially filler, and as pointed out, you can grab those types every year in FA.
If Hudson truly is the centerpiece, then there’s no sense in making the move. The chance of keeping Dunn with a worst case being 2 draft picks, is the smarter move.
Maybe the picks don’t amount to anything. There’s just as good a chance none of these guys amount to anything. None of the mentioned players are big league regulars. Hudson hasn’t fared too well so far and Flowers has a pathetic BA in the minors.
The best case is to lock up Dunn long term. Certainly 2 guys closer to the bigs are better than 2 draft picks, but I’d rather take the risk on the best case, which is keeping Dunn. Worsdt case there is, we get 2 draft picks. Worst case with making the trade is both guys flop and we got nothing for done.
Wow, that should say nothing for Dunn.
That’s what I thought – I was just changing the rules of the game. I’m intrigued by Flowers-and-Morel-at-2b, I’ll admit. One trouble with that is it makes the lineup seriously right-handed.
we can always learn from history….that Colon deal messed with the birth of the new team in DC…Happy 19th anniversary of El Presidente perfect game in LA today. Tim Wallach now employed by no-noed Dodgers. Crossed fingers that Colin Balester harnesses onto the 6th IP slot in the 2011 plans in the next few months. Any chance the Nats might purchase a Cuban bat in the next season? Economic question: if the Nats are going to stink for a spell…will unloading Dunn’s contract have any play in the money offered Bryce Harper??? who here believes the Angels gave up more for Dan Haren then the D-backs gave up for him? The Tigers gave up nada for Peralta. Wes Hodges next CLE 3b??? Poor Manny ACTA. back to Colon deal- Sizemore if not traded to CLE would probably still be in Nat org. as stud player.. I guess we will just have to wait and see how the Rizzo/Clark kids pan out from this draft with the outfield bats. trade Dunn and scoop up AZ vet 1b, LaRoche. good luck, Scotty Olson manyana.
I disagree with those who are against the White Sox package, no it isn’t some record breaking deal, but I think it is a solid return. Flowers was ranked 60th on B.A.’s top 100 list, and Dan Hudson was ranked 66th. They might not be Strasburg and Wieters, but they aren’t warm bodies either.
Hudson might not end up more than being a 3, but he is a pretty safe bet to reach that ceiling. And having that level of pitching at that price will make him a solid trade commodity going forward. Is there a chance he doesn’t pan out sure, but he is much more likely to succeed than a draft pick (not to mention he is already signed and ready to contribute this year).
Flowers shouldn’t be judged on his batting average in the minors, for one thing it is one year, considering he has dominated every other season i’ll go with those numbers instead. For another every scout talks about his power and plate discipline. Also even with his bad number he has an OPS near .800, that is pretty good for a catcher esp. in his worse season. Flowers might not be Mike Piazza at the plate, but he could be an .850 OPS guy a la Brian McCann. He might not give that production this year, but by next year it wouldn’t shock me.
That all being said I do believe when it is all said and done there will be a 3rd and 4th piece, though they will likely be in the bench role/ middle relief type of prospects. All in all I think that is well worth Dunn, and a much better return than two draft picks one of which could end up being a 3rd rounder.
I was all for resigning Dunn until I read this post. If the Nationals can get a starting pitcher who might be a number #3 and a top catching prospect plus free up maybe 12 million dollars for a free agent I think they have to pull the trigger. The Nationals have too many needs not to take this deal unless Dunn signs for 3 years or less at a below value rate and even then it is a close call. Draft picks for Dunn is unacceptable the team needs to improve sooner.
Draft picks for Dunn as a last resort, is an excellent option. If the first option is to keep him, which is the best, it presents us with a fallback option.
Trading him for decent prospects isn’t a terrible deal, but it definitely causes us to take a step back. And let’s face it, we’re already at the bottom of the league. As someone mentioned previously, we become the worst team in the league again when you take Dunn’s bat out of the middle of the lineup. We can’t take that step back, unless we get a difference maker in return.
Im not saying that Dunn should command a stud prospect, just saying that if we aren’t offered one, then we don’t bite. He means more to the club than any of the prospects mentioned do.
And if it so happens that by taking that chance on signing him, and we don’t get him, then we have something to fall back on in two draft picks.
Whereas we trade him, and we’re the worst team in the league. Again. Hudson and Flowers still wouldn’t have a huge impact next year on this club, so we would likely be the worst team in the league.
Again.
Where does Hudson fit? Certianly its just my opinion, but I bet he starts next year in Syracuse. How does he join the rotation? Strasburg and Zimmermann are the future of the organization. They are up. Maya seems legit, and will be in the bigs. Thats 3 of 5 starters. Jason Marquis is the type of veteran to eat up innings, and he’s signed for another year. Thats 4. With four right handers in the rotation, it’d be nice to get a lefty in there. If everything goes right, Detwiler is #5. After that, you still have Lannan battling for a spot. Who knows what guys like Meyers and Milone show in spring training. And after that, you have guys like Morris, Peacock, and Holder that could push for time at some point during the season. Not to mention the cluster of fringe guys that can fill in at any time like Martis, Martin, Stammen, Atilano, etc.
Just not enthralled with Hudson. He may be a solid big leaguer, but at this point, we’re looking ok on the bump. Certainly you can always use more power arms, but thats not Hudson. He’s right in there with guys we already have in the organization.
Flowers is intriguing, I understand that. However, you can’t just ignore the batting average. Plenty of players blink right when they get on the cusp of the bigs and can’t break that door down. He’s 24, going on 25 and has a .217 average in triple A. Do you really think that is going to improve substantially at the big league level? Im not writing the kid off based on one year, but he definitely has a pressing issue with that number. He won’t be a Top 100 prospect his year, unless he has a ridiculous close to the season.
The value in return isn’t terrible for Dunn, but Dunn’s presence in the lineup is FAR more valuable than the combination of these kids. And with the fallback option of draft picks out there just in case you can’t sign him, you have to keep him and go that route. Its not a matter of simply choosing picks over these prospects. It’s about the picks just being the worst case scenario in the deal. Best case, we have Dunn in the lineup and we continue to take a step forward. The picks would be a bit disappointing, but as I continue to mention, it at least gives us a fallback option. It’s not picks vs prospects, or simply Dunn vs prospects. It’s Dunn and a fallback option vs these prospects. The ceiling is higher by keeping Dunn, and the floor is much higher as well because we’d be guaranteed two more talented kids, as a last resort.
The draft picks aren’t likely to be more talented than Hudson and Flowers, possibly one of them could be a higher prospect but the chances that both would be is extremely high. Not to mention that Hudson and Flowers are both ready for the majors now.
I really think it is completely wrong to characterize Flowers on 4 months…if that is the case than how can you even mention Lannan as an option for the rotation next year. And in that time Marquis, Detwiler, Zimmerman and Maya haven’t thrown a meaningful pitch. We have to use past performance to judge Flowers and not just 4 months (when he is still killing the ball).
As for Hudson in terms of talent he would be slotted after Strasburg and Zimm, but has the talent to be ahead of Marquis, Maya, Detwiler ect. Sure he might not be right away but he has that potential and given his prospect status he could help bring in another player through a trade if the Nats pitching does pan out. Again I don’t see anything wrong with that value.
Look it is possible these guys don’t pan out, but it is also possible that both become quality major league players. If Dunn hasn’t signed an extension what is the problem with cashing in on a couple of quality prospects? Who have a lot more value than draft picks. If he isn’t signed by now what will the extra couple of months do to sign him. If he isn’t signing by now cash in and try again in the offseason. In addition to the money the Nats would have strengthened their pitching depth and likely found themselves their catcher of the future.
This really comes down to the fact that you’re sold on Flowers I suppose. I am not. I am not writing him off either. But when you’re 24 years old and have reached the highest level before the bigs, I want to see more than a .217 batting average. I am not ignoring his previous couple years. However, his most recent numbers, at the highest level, leave a lot to be desired. I do put more stock into what he’s showing now. He’s facing the best comp, and having his worst showing. That causes legitimate questions IMO.
As for Hudson, I still disagree if were talking about people reaching their ceiling, Ill go with the lefty drafted in the top ten. Detwilers upside is just as high as Hudsons. I do think Hudson has a higher ceiling than Marquis, but that’s not the issue. Marquis is a seasoned veteran who’s played in big games and been a winner. And durable. His value really only lies with us for next season, as he’s only signed for 1 more year. But his presence is needed. Not to mention he would provide us with trade bait at next years deadline. His spot in the rotation next year is as set as Strasburg and Zimmermanns IMO. As for Maya, he is an unknown, much like Hudson. However, he’s a safer bet with his experience to make a bigger impact. Plus, reports are that he could be an excellent #2 startern giving him a higher upside than Hudson. I think those 5 should be our starters next year. Even Olsen could be brought back and provide just as much upside as Hudson.
As for what Detwiler has done for the past 4 months … He pitched pretty well in the minors and had a decent showing in his first big league start. Hudson has not proven anything more than him over the course of the season. As for Lannan … Certainly he’s taken a step back. That’s why I mention him on the outside looking in. I only mention him as a candidate for thw rotation. But he at least does have a big league repuation and success as compared to Flowers struggling in the minors. Like Flowers, I’m not writing him off. He’s merely in the discussion.
If we were talking Viciedo and Hudson, I may have a different view. Viciedo would then be the centerpiece of the deal. Hed also give us someone to lessen the loss of Dunn immediately. However, his longterm value is questionable. Marrero is close to being ready, andboth are pegged in at first. Maybe Marrero could shift back to the OF but that’s unlikely.
I just think our best move going forward is keeping Dunn. Keeping that option alive is the best way to approach this, unless were getting someone like Montero. The draft picks are just a fallback if someone comes in and overpays for him.