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Overslot


Lost in the discussions about whether the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg agree is the fact that given the rumored price tag Strasburg is likely to command, the Nationals have not been part of the litany of overslot deals we’ve seen announced over the last few days.

And the Nationals to date have gone overslot on one player (27th rounder Brandon King).

That’s it.

I understand just because a player signing overslot is no guarantee of future success, but the picture is clear that the Nationals have not made the decision to exploit the draft by grabbing talented players that slide due to signability. They made several selections in the 40th round and later but there has not been a peep about any of them coming to terms and time is running out.

This makes the signing of Strasburg that much more pressing because, the Nationals have taken an extremely conservative draft position and the overall success or failure of the 2009 draft is predicated on getting Strasburg signed.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 17th, 2009, 10:44 AM and is filed under Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  1. #1 by Upperdec - August 17th, 2009 at 11:03

    Not to mention we also have not signed 4 other top 20 round draft choices (#5, 12, 15, and 18)

  2. #2 by Marc - August 17th, 2009 at 11:16

    Brian – you’ve hit this right on the head – my concern about this draft since Draft Day is that it’s always been the “Strasburg or Bust” draft – Storen’s surprising to the upside a little, which is nice, but this has been Strasburg or bust.

    And while you’re right that signing overslot deals doesn’t mean they guarantee future success, it’s interesting to note: Which teams seemingly signed the most players overslot? Rays (4), Red Sox (4), Rangers (3). And which teams have had success recently based largely on the successful development of young prospects?

    The issue I have is why the Nats are seemingly so devoted to upholding rules that most other successful teams seem inclined to ignore.

    Keeping an eye on #5 an #12 will be interesting as well.

  3. #3 by AlexVA - August 17th, 2009 at 11:47

    Had the team said, “SS will cost 15-20M and we can’t justify that. Instead we will go overslot throughout and spend 15-20M on the entire draft.” I would have said brilliant. Now if they don’t sign him and end up spending 3-4M total I’ll say disaster.

    Is there any way to recover through international signings? What about the Cuban pitcher?

  4. #4 by Pilchard - August 17th, 2009 at 12:00

    Brian,

    I agree with you, but just to state the other side: there is going over slot and there is kicking slot’s arse.

    Lets say Strasburg signs for $16 million; the Nats will have paid more than $11 million over slot. So, if the Nats sign SS (and I hope they do), they will may not just go over slot, they will obliterate slot.

    Depening on how much the final contracct amount is the Nats could come close to going over slot by more than the rest of the NL combined.

  5. #5 by Wallyball - August 17th, 2009 at 12:08

    Brian – your last post, this post and subsequent comments really capture my sentiment, as well. Sure, I would love a management team that invests heavily in their players, but more importantly, I want a management team that knows what it is doing. So I want Strasburg signed because they drafted him, same for Crow last year. One miss – ok, it happens, but failing to do those things consistently is nothing other than management failure. Rationalize it however they want, that is my unavoidable conclusion.

  6. #6 by Brian Oliver - August 17th, 2009 at 12:10

    Pilchard – Agree with you 100%. But the big caveat there is actually signing Strasburg. Avoiding overslot deals because of an enormous commitment to Strasburg makes some degree of financial sense. It’s just all predicated on signing Strasburg. If they do, they met their goals. If they don’t and it’s compounded by not signing an other overslot deals … that’s a problem.

  7. #7 by Wallyball - August 17th, 2009 at 12:32

    I really haven’t given up hope that they sign SS. But if they don’t, the worst part of it to me won’t be that he is not part of the organization, but the spin that will come out of it. They bring in a different GM, we will hear how badly things were run for the last 4 years, they tell us to be patient and over time they will rebuild the organization from the ground up. Again. That will be hard to take.

  8. #8 by Pilchard - August 17th, 2009 at 12:44

    The Yankees just agreed to a deal with their first round pick, Slade Heathcott ($2.2 million) which is about double his slot amount. Heathcott was the 29 pick in the 1st round. Drew Storen the #10 pick signed for $1.6 million

  9. #9 by Pilchard - August 17th, 2009 at 13:02

    According to Bill Ladson’s blog, the Nats DFA’d Logan Kensing (who has been awful for awhile) and will bring up either Jason Maxwell or Mike Morse. I am guessing Morse gets the call as he can play in the IF too.

  10. #10 by TimDz - August 17th, 2009 at 13:43

    Pilchard: (Justin Maxwell I am guessing you meant that instead of Jason)…

    A question: It was reported on MLB.com that $$ took a physical yesterday. Someone on the WAPOST blog saw this as hopeful. While I can take anything as positive, I was wondering if this is just SOP.

  11. #11 by Brian Oliver - August 17th, 2009 at 13:49

    TimDz – Teams demand that players who get a major league contract have a physical prior to signing a deal. Such players deals cannot be voided if an injury appears after the fact.

    While players who do not sign major league deals can have their contracts voided after the fact if an injury appears in a physical later.

    It was something the Nationals ran into issues with Crow last year, things dragged out to the point where they could not get a physical done in time for the midnight deadline and therefore were reluctant or unwilling to give him a major league contract.

    If they got a physical done with Strasburg (and he passed it), they can negotiate a major league deal up until the last minute

  12. #12 by RT - August 17th, 2009 at 14:08

    If, and thats a big if, Strasburg does sign with the nats where will they start him off? Will they put him down in Potomac first?

  13. #13 by Brian Oliver - August 17th, 2009 at 14:10

    Guessing he would get started at GCL just to get back in game shape (or at the very least head to Viera first)

    After that Potomac seems a strong possibility

  14. #14 by Basil - August 17th, 2009 at 14:16

    Teams demand that players who get a major league contract have a physical prior to signing a deal. Such players deals cannot be voided if an injury appears after the fact.

    And then you have the rare case of Tim Stauffer, who agreed in principle on a $2.6M bonus, discovered an injury on his own, told the Padres about it, and ended up getting a $750,000 bonus.

  15. #15 by Ric - August 17th, 2009 at 14:24

    Before worrying about going overslot, how about they fix the first round? Obviously good in 2005, but that draft was so good it was hard to go wrong. Starting with 2006, Marrero (OK but not a star so far), Willems (very slow progress), Detwiler (some signs of progress, but not top 100 material) and Crow (unsigned), Strasburg (let’s hope so) and Storen (probably not top 100 but solid). Picking in spots 15, 22, 6, 9, 1 and 10, respctively, better results would be nice. Expand to the supplemental first and second and get Black (unsigned), Englund (position change, drug suspension), Smoker (see Willems), Burgess (encouraging), Zimmerman (great pick), Smolinski (traded), Hood (encouraging) and Kobernus (not showing much yet) Seems like a disappointing yield overall for rounds 1, 1S and 2 the past five years. Only Zimmerman, Zimmermann and(let’s hope) Strasburg are clear MLB talent so far, out of 15 picks.

  16. #16 by Guy Holly - August 17th, 2009 at 14:47

    Ric,

    Kobernus blew out his knee. That’s why he’s not showing much.

    You need to put Espinosa and Ramirez in your success list.

  17. #17 by Brian Oliver - August 17th, 2009 at 14:51

    I will give the Nationals credit for their drafting/developing of pitchers in the 5th through 15th rounds. They have the knack for targeting the college arms there. None of them are future #1 SPs but they have shown the proclivity to find guys who are back or the rotation options with some upside for maybe #3 or 4s.

    I agree their HS drafting since relocating has been a mixed bag. The question remains whether it’s bad scouting or bad player development.

  18. #18 by Pilchard - August 17th, 2009 at 15:16

    While I doubt it will have any impact on the negotiations involving Boras’s other first rounders, It appears that at least one of Boras’sclients, Levon Washington drafted in the 1st round by the Rays, will not sign today:

    http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/comments/rays-come-up-empty-with-top-two-picks/

  19. #19 by Ric - August 17th, 2009 at 15:33

    I did not hear that Kobernus had a knee injury – how serious, does he need surgery? Too bad for him.

    Espinosa (3rd round) and Ramirez (15th round – the kind of overslot pick Brian is talking about) don’t make my list because they don’t fit the 1, 1S and 2 round parameters I established.

    I agree with Brian on the late round picks. They seem to do pretty well after the first 2 – including Espinosa (3d), Norris and Maxwell (4th), Nieto and Meyers (5th), Lannan (11th), Stammen (12th), Arneson (17th)

  20. #20 by Mark - August 17th, 2009 at 16:00

    Kensing is on assignment. The scuttlebutt is either Morse or Everts. Any thougts?

  21. #21 by Brian Oliver - August 17th, 2009 at 16:02

    I had read Maxwell was a consideration as well

  22. #22 by Mark - August 17th, 2009 at 16:05

    Wow – the FO really believes in Maxwell. I don’t see an immediate team need to move him up.

  23. #23 by Louis J - August 17th, 2009 at 16:27

    To Upperdec: The only unsigned draft choice that concerns me is Miguel Pena (5th Rd). He appears to be a good looking LHP without a strong college commitment. Nathan Karns (12th Rd) is a college Junior who has a big fast ball and bad control. If he can gain some degree of control, he’s a possible setup man. But he has no place to go and I don’t know why he doesn’t want to sign. Marcus Stroman (18th Rd) is going to his dream school – DUKE – to play college ball. And, “Big Hoss” – Corey Davis (15th Rd) – is a 6-3, 258 lb HS project with weak defensive skills and slow bat speed. No big loss if he doesn’t sign.

  24. #24 by Upperdec - August 17th, 2009 at 16:35

    Louis J. — then it sounds like we had a pretty crappy draft then. I just think you should sign more than 80% of your first 20 picks (assuming Strasburg signs) when you have as low a payroll as the Nats do.

    This is truly looking like the Strasburg or bust draft which frankly is pretty scary to me.

  25. #25 by Dave - August 17th, 2009 at 18:04

    Mike Morse gets the call-up, per Nationals Journal.

  26. #26 by BinM - August 17th, 2009 at 20:18

    Upperdec: The Nationals have signed 28 of their top 35 picks from the 2009 draft to date; I wouldn’t consider that a bad draft.

    Of the top 10, only Strasburg & the HS-LH (Pena) remain unsigned. From the mid-round players, Karns (#12) & Strohman (#18) not signing didn’t suprise me, but Ridings (#25) did. Not signing the Davis kid (#15) probably means he was asking for a completely out-of-scale bonus, given his current skill-set (DH).

    The bulk of the lower (35-50) rounds were used on HS players, with most of them already commited to good programs; That struck me as more of a “draft & offer slot, then watch” strategy.

  27. #27 by cjrugger - August 17th, 2009 at 20:40

    Shelby Miller signed for 2.8 mil with the Cardinals. Ouch. I wanted him at #10 but gave up hope thinking his bonus was going to be A LOT higher than that

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