Home
>
Draft > Mocking the Mock Drafts.
Mocking the Mock Drafts.
Our Strasburg post turned into a draft discussion, so lets focus discussions and talk mock drafts and who we may get at #10.
With the litany of draft experts and draft-related sites out there, I’ve spent a bit of time trying to construct a mock draft history of people’s opinions about the 9a/10 spot. I have yet to see a single site NOT have Washington drafting Strasburg with the #1 pick, so i’ll focus on various guesses for the #10 spot.
DC Pro Sports Report has a consolidated list of mock drafts but they mostly seem to be “amateurs.” Below I’ve got a consolidated opinion from the “experts.” For each i’ll have the source, date posted, the #10 pick and quick thoughts.
Keith Law Mock Draft, 5/27/09, Kyle Gibson: He has Green 8, White 11, Leake 15 to compare. Link needs ESPN insider.
mlbdraftsite.com, unknown date, Tyler Matzek: Probably not believable; site has Crow going #13, Scheppers going #18 and Alex White going #3. There’s no way Scheppers and Crow aren’t top 8 picks and White is too high.
SportingNews, 5/24/09, Tyler Matzek: Has Green, Gibson going 3-4, but Scheppers 16. I’d think that if Scheppers falls to us we’d get him instead of a HS-er.
Baseball Draft Report, 5/8/09, Tanner Scheppers: Good analysis, has Crow 3, Green 5, Gibson 8 and Matzek 9. Seems like the draft could go this way. Has Leake picked right after Scheppers.
MLB Outsider mock draft, 5/12/09, Matthew Purke: This is more of an amateur draft listing and data suspect again b/c of Crow going #12 and Green #13 in this draft. Law has Purke going #11 in his mock draft.
minorleaguebaseball.com, 5/19/09, Kyle Gibson: They Had us taking Tim Wheeler in earlier version of their mock draft.
mlb.com, 5/28/09, Chad Jenkins: Has Nats passing on Gibson, White and Green. I can’t believe we’d pass on any of those guys to take Jenkins.
Baseball America, 5/1/09, Chad Jenkins: v1.0 in the current magazine, which I don’t have in front of me so I can’t judge its veracity or the picks they’ve projected around #10. They’re posting version #2 today, so if anyone has the insider access and can pass along the new #10 I’ll update the post.
Baseball Prospectus, 5/21/09, Brett Jackson: Overdraft here; has us passing on Matzek which I don’t think we’d do.
PgCrosschecker: need insider access (anyone out there got it? If so add a comment and I’ll update the post).
If someone else has suggestions for other expert/reputable sites for Mock drafts, please suggest. My opinion: In order i’d be ecstatic to get Scheppers, would love Gibson, and would take a lefty HS Matzek who is hitting 94-95 as an 18yr old.
I disagree on Scheppers. He’s really struggled with his command and has the shoulder injury history. He’s also going to be a tougher sign than expected as he’s going to try and use Japan as leverage against whomever drafts him, as he’s scheduled to pitch for several scouts from over there. He also wouldn’t let the Pirates re-draft him. There are just way too many negatives.
I’d rather have Gibson or Jenkins. Both are strong, throw strikes, and are known for having great character, especially Gibson. They don’t have the FB velocity of Scheppers, but they’re throwing mostly two-seamers and both have great life. A two-seam fastball in the low nineties can be devastaing if it’s thrown for strikes(Think Webb/Hudson/Lowe). The K/BB rate for both guys suggests they have good command.
Id be estatic for Matzek, happy but nervous abotu scheppers, happy with gibson, and furious with Jenkins/Jackson or equivelant
FYI: Id bag mlbdraftsite, that hasnt been updated in months. Also, Andy Seiler from minorleaguebaseball has started his own site at http://mlbbonusbaby.wordpress.com/
Following up on cjrugger’s suggestion, here’s a link for Seiler’s overview of the National’s past few drafts plus thoughts on 2009. http://mlbbonusbaby.wordpress.com/2009/05/24/draft-preview-washington-nationals/
And a link directly to his mock draft, where he has us taking Gibson. http://mlbbonusbaby.wordpress.com/category/mock-draft/
And, here’s a great article interviewing Baseball America’s Jim Callis with a heavy dose of Washington related topics related to this draft: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/qa_with_basebal.php
Im not sure what Seiler’s credentials are, but he does a nice job and seems pretty much in line with the rest of the crowd
Thanks for doing this, Todd.
I think that #10 has to be pitching, which is where this draft is strongest there. If you go to a restaurant known for its fish, I think that you get the fish, even if you might be in the mood for a steak. I would take Ackley if he fell, but that is it for position players.
Here is my current wish list, which I am sure will change several times in the next two weeks: Gibson, HWSRN (assuming consent), Scheppers, Z. Wheeler, White, and Leake. I had Leake higher until seeing Todd’s breakdown of his schedule, particularly his record against the tourney teams. And I would pass on Green, even if he falls. Two other generic comments – if they take someone widely viewed as a reach or high risk/reward, I like Reymond Fuentes from Puerto Rico, followed by Trout. And, speaking irrationally, I hope that they do not take a lefty, especially a college one – there just seems to be bad mojo in the organization with lefties. They all seem to turn into soft-tossing control types.
I doubt Crow gives consent; would you given last year’s debacle? Even if you laid it 100% at Bowden’s feet and say to Crow “see, he’s gone come play for us,” he just didn’t seem like he wanted to be here in the first place. Probably better for him to just move on and go elsewhere. I’d take Matzek (lefty) in a heartbeat if Gibson was gone; 6-3 throwing mid 90s as an 18yr old? He may still grow and fill out and increase that to upper 90s.
Strasburg on TV tonight on Comcast Sportsnet against UVA!
Worth watching.
BTW, I did the same analysis of Alex White that I did of Gibson and Leake (what can I say, slow week).
Season Stats: 7-4 4.13 era, 13 starts 1.25 whip, 92ks, 34 walks in 85ip.
Starts against BA top 25: 6. He was 2-2 with 2 NDs in those starts. Beat Ga Tech, Beat Miami, Lost to FSU, got killed by UVA in the ACC final and NDs versus UVA and Clemson
Starts against Tourney Teams: 7; record in those games: 2-3, with 2 NDs. Basically the same list as above plus a loss to BC.
White pitched in a very difficult conference and faced good competition all year. I’m not sure how you compare this to someone like Leake given the weakness of the Pac10.
John: I’ve got the game on ESPN-U; perhaps it will be blacked out on Comcast or vice versa. Be aware if you go one place and get a blank screen :-)
Is there any Gametracker on the NCAA?
I got this place for scores, but that’s all they got: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/scoreboard?sport=mbaseball
Found it: http://www.ncaa.com/brackets/2009/ncaa_bracket_DI_baseball.html
Then click on game you want.
Todd
On Crow, I don’t know if he will or not, but I also think that when someone reaches this stage, they act rationally, meaning in their best economic interest. There may be histrionics involved, but ultimately their actions follow their interests. If Rizzo went to them and said ‘Bowden’s gone, and we’ll go to your last offer of $4m’, why wouldn’t he consent? He has to be a little worried about someone else playing hardball with him again because of his options if he doesn’t sign, and that would guarantee him a bottom. But I don’t know if the Nats would or should do that, I was really just trying to say that if he did consent, he would be my #2 choice after gibson.
And on Matzek, yeah I know. All the scouting reports love him too, and I acknowledged that it was an irrational feeling based on a limited history of Nats draftees. But I will say that when I looked at the video of the prospects on law’s Top 100 Prospects list, liked Wheeler and Miller better. They just seemed to have smoother and easier deliveries with about the same or better velocity.
Sorry, click on “In Progress” tab, that should take you to the game list.
Vladi: d1baseball.com is where I always go for trackers.
I don’t believe the game is going to be on Comcast. I’m assuming John (the other one) read that in the Post’s National’s blog, but I believe that’s an error.
http://midatlantic.comcastsportsnet.com/pages/main
Midatlantic Comcast is showing the game at 7pm and they have an ad up and running for the game…follow the link above.
Wallyball: Law is on record saying something to the effect of “Imagine if the Nats had both Strasburg and Crow?” In amazement of that kind of pitching talent in the near future for the team.
Still; I don’t know how rational Crow and his advisers were LAST year. He was the 2nd pitcher taken and 9th overall yet demanded $$ that were double what Matusz got and 33% higher than the #1overall got.
Crow’s rational plan should have been to say to himself, “look, no matter what team drafts me, I’m their indentured servant for 6 years. Why wouldn’t I want to go to the worst, weakest pitching team possible in order to make the Majors the quickest and get to arbitration sooner?” In this respect he should have WANTED to sign and get started. Instead he signs up for Indy ball (doesn’t even go back to school to finish up) and here he is a year later in a horrible economy and facing 10% slot reductions and possibly being forced to take less money depending on where he signs. How has he helped himself?
(sorry, I like many still get worked up over Crow).
Todd
Don’t get me wrong, I was sorely disappointed last year too, although maybe I split that disappointment equally between the player/agents and the nats. But more than anything, i want the Nats to improve as much as possible, so I want to see the best players taken, and if that is Crow, I can get over last year. This is probably a moot point though, because I don’t think that he lasts until 10 anyway.
Todd – that would be Strasburg, HWSRN, Zimmermann & Lannon ( maybe Detwiler if he keeps it up) how nice that would have been, but this staff without HWSRN and say Gibson or Matzek…Holy mayhem Batman ! One to two more years we’ll have a monster starting pitching crew. Not to mention Martis, Stammen, Balester and Clippard…Bullpen will be nice in the future, too.
Stras, Crow, Detwiler, Zimm, and Lannan would be one of the most talented, young starting rotaions in baseball history. Plus you still have Martis, Stammen, Olsen, Balester, and other possibles like Arnesen, Meyers, Mandel, Atwood, Frias, Willems, McGeary, Smoker, and Hicks. They could definitely be in a strong position to buy a hitter or two.
How steady is Matzek’s arm slot & does he have 2+ pitches already? Forgive me, but I’m a little leery of HS pitchers (David Clyde, anyone)? IMO, Gibson at #10 would have value, or Z.Wheeler / Green / Leake (in order) if Gibson’s gone. I won’t consider Crow, as I can’t believe the Bros. Hendricks will give consent, and my gut tells me that 1) A. White will end up a 4A type starter, and 2) Scheppers will need a shoulder re-build inside of three years.
Baseball America probably will keep Jenkins in Mock 2.0. They base their mock on the “chatter” they are hearing, and Mike Rizzo didn’t deny interest. Rather, he asserted that the Nationals wouldn’t go the “signability” route, but they view Jenkins and a few others who BA sees as low first round guys (like Wil Myers and Brett Jackson) more highly than consensus view.
BA’s 2.0 still has the Nats going cheap, with White, Miller, and Green still on the board. Gibson is gone in this scenario: 10. NATIONALS. Acting general manager Mike Rizzo says Washington isn’t looking for a predraft, below-slot deal with this pick, which isn’t protected by future compensation because his team got it after failing to sign Crow last year. Yet the names that pop up most often at No. 10 are Kennesaw State righthander Chad Jenkins, North Carolina high school catcher Wil Myers, California outfielder Brett Jackson and New Jersey prep outfielder Mike Trout, all of whom fit in the second half of the first round in terms of talent. Gibson and White would be awfully tempting, though. Projected Pick: CHAD JENKINS.
And this from KLaw:
Here’s another way the top 10 could play out, based on some rumors I’ve heard in the past 24 hours: 1. Washington — San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg 2. Seattle — St. Paul Saints RHP Tanner Scheppers 3. San Diego — UNC CF/1B Dustin Ackley 4. Pittsburgh — Boston College C Tony Sanchez 5. Baltimore — Ft. Worth Cats RHP Aaron Crow 6. San Francisco — Sacramento State CF Tim Wheeler 7. Atlanta — UNC RHP Alex White 8. Cincinnati — Capistrano Valley HS (Calif.) LHP Tyler Matzek 9. Detroit — Westminster Christian Academy (Mo.) RHP Jacob Turner 10. Washington — Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson.
I love the Stras kid, saw him pitch last night on the tube. but does anybody think that we could spend the money it is going to take on some other problems that the Nats have??
Thanks Cole.
Flores aches in shoulder only cause me to say: draft Phegley out of Indiana this June!!!!! you never have enough catchers-ecspecially in the coaching corp.