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NFA Mock Draft Top 10 v.2


Less than six weeks to go and here is an updated take on how I see the top 10 picks in the June 9th draft (v.1 here):

  1. Nationals – San Diego St RHSP Steven Strasburg – No change here and if you are to believe a certain former GM, “[t]he decision has already been made“. Last week: Strasburg
  2. Mariners – UNC 1B/OF Dustin Ackley – I am going to switch up the Seattle pick here. Green has been a bit disappointing while Ackley has remained consistently solid. I believe the Mariners will grab Ackley. Last week: USC SS Grant Green
  3. Padres - UNC RHP Alex White – the Heels make it back-to-back selections with the Padres grabbing him here. I think it comes down to White, Gibson or maybe Aaron Crow here. Last week: Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson
  4. Pirates - Fort Worth Cats RHSP Aaron Crow- The choice is down to Green, Tate Donavan, or one of the older arms (Gibson or Crow). Assuming he shows little rust from a year off, I believe the Pirates will make a play for Crow. Last week: Ackley
  5. Orioles – Capistrano Valley HS (CA) LHSP Tyler Matzek - This is a place where a new name might pop up. Tanner Scheppers is receiving rave reviews from scouts in early side sessions, but I believe the Orioles will still grab the top HS arm in the draft here.- Last week: Matzek
  6. Giants – USC SS Grant Green - Last week I had the Giants grabbing Donavan Tate here, but if Green is still on the board, I can see San Francisco taking a chance on Green as a more developed/closer to the majors bat. Last week: Tate
  7. Braves – East Paulding (GA) HS RHSP Zack Wheeler – The rumors are getting louder that the Braves are high on the local prep right-hander. And given the Braves’ track record with kids from Georgia, they have a solid history on their side. Last week: Brownwood (TX) HS RHSP Shelby Miller.
  8. Reds – Missouri RHSP Kyle Gibson – I may have overestimated Gibson in last week’s draft. He’s still a top 10 talent in this draft, but I believe he slides to Reds. Last week: Crow
  9. Tigers – Cartersville HS (GA) OF Donavan Tate – The Tigers are never afraid to go overslot on a high schooler and Tate’s overslot demands might lead him to slide to Detroit who would select him at #9. Last week – White
  10. Nationals – St. Paul Saints RHSP Tanner Scheppers – This is where I am going to go off script a bit. There have been reports that Scheppers has looked impressive in early work in front of scouts. Scheppers was a top ten talent in last year’s draft but slid due to a late season shoulder issue. From what I have heard, the medical reports on Scheppers show no damage at all and he is back to throwing like he did early in 2008. He could very well go even earlier than this. The fallback position here is now Georgia 1B Rich Poythress or Arizona State RHP Mike Leake. Last week: California OF Brett Jackson.

The menu of options for the Nationals at #10 would be Scheppers, Miller, Poythress, and Leake. I still believe the Nationals are going to try and find a guy who will sign at slot given the financial commitment Strasburg is going to require.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 29th, 2009, 8:30 AM and is filed under Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  1. #1 by cjrugger - April 29th, 2009 at 08:40

    Well done

    I feel like this draft could significantly change once Scheppers and Crow start up in the Indy leagues. They could both end up in the top 10 and make things very interesting. Here’s Scheppers report from last year: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=scheppers

    Also, I don’t think Matzek will make it to the O’s, I think the Pads are gonna jump on him

  2. #2 by Brian Oliver - April 29th, 2009 at 08:42

    Scheppers and Crow will make this draft interesting. I read an article this week where a MLB GM basically said that after Strasburg, all bets were off. He saw valid arguments for multiple people at each subsequent pick.

  3. #3 by Pilchard - April 29th, 2009 at 08:53

    While he may not be available when the Nats pick at 10, do the Nats need Crow’s approval to draft him again? If so, when would then be expected to ask for it or have they already done so? Or, have the Nats decided to not get involved with Crow even if he is available?

  4. #4 by cjrugger - April 29th, 2009 at 09:08

    Yes we would need approval, I doubt we even ask for it

  5. #5 by Pilchard - April 29th, 2009 at 10:07

    Baseball America just released its latest NCAA College Baseball Tourney Field, and that projection had SD State in the tourney as a 3 seed in the Fullerton sub-regional. For the baseball field of 64, there are 16 sub-regionals with 4 teams in each. A 3 seed means that SD State could still fail to make the NCAAs if they stumble to the finish.

  6. #6 by cjrugger - April 29th, 2009 at 10:34

    Im actually rooting for SD State to not make it, save that arm

  7. #7 by Dick - April 29th, 2009 at 10:42

    Not sold on Miller but Scheppers, Poythress and Leake would be a surprising trove of riches to choose from at #10. Shoulder injuries still scare me regarding Scheppers.

    Just looking at numbers, I still think Leake is a no-brainer. Leake has slightly better WHIP than Strasburg because he gives up slightly fewer hits with almost the same number of walks. Leake has a better ERA, if that is even worth anything. The only difference between the two is Leake only strikes out just under 10 batters per 9 innings. Great athlete, has been a workhorse. I believe he leads Division I in innings pitched. I don’t see why he wouldn’t be signable either. He’ll still be “undersized” next year! Probably won’t add 5 miles velocity this summer, either.

    But, 1) I’ve never seen him pitch and 2) I’m not Mike Rizzo so my opinion doesn’t count.

  8. #8 by Basil - April 29th, 2009 at 11:17

    Brian, w/r/t the Tigers, I’ve seen lots of articles saying that their gate will be particularly hurt by the current economic climate. Any thinking that this will affect how aggressively they pick at No. 9?

  9. #9 by Brian Oliver - April 29th, 2009 at 11:22

    Basil – My guess is that the players grabbed in the 1st round will not suffer any bonus effects driven by a poor economy. I’d imagine that we might see fewer above slot later deals (6th round and later).

  10. #10 by mfeld - April 29th, 2009 at 11:51

    Brian,

    With the mediocrity of the Nationals starting pitching and the rough performance so far by the bullpen (and that’s putting it kindly), do you feel the Nats are more likely to take two pitchers now in the 1st round?

    Personally I was all in favor of the Nats drafting best bat available at #10, but now, I just don’t know. I’m leaning more towards need (a pitcher), especially since our minor league pitching does seem to be as deep as we thought it was a year ago with the struggles of our top pitching prospects (Detwiler, Smoker, Ballester, Williams, etc.).

    Your thoughts would be appreciated.

  11. #11 by Brian Oliver - April 29th, 2009 at 12:01

    mfeld – My gut tells me the Nats are going to draft BPAWSFS.

    Best Player Available Who Signs For Slot.

    A bat would be nice but there is something to adding an arm like Leake who seems likely to sign for slot. Scheppers, I’m not sure where his bonus demands fall but given his draft re-entry status, I’d imagine he’s at least open to it.

  12. #12 by Wallyball - April 29th, 2009 at 12:45

    Assuming Scheppers continues to hold up, I would be happy with Strasburg and one of Scheppers, Leake or Poythress. I would not grab the HS arm at 10.

  13. #13 by Berndaddy - April 29th, 2009 at 12:51

    I’d think that getting a bat in free agency, as a stop gap, is better than a pitcher in free agency. I’d hope they go for arms 1 & 10. We do have 50 in the 2nd for a bat. Like Dick said it’s a nice guess but I’m not Rizzo.

    WWRD What will Rizzo Do?

  14. #14 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - April 29th, 2009 at 14:07

    I’d like a Scheppers pick – little to no leverage left and if he truely is back in early 08 form then he would be a steal at pick #10.

    Think about it – getting 2/5 of your MLB rotation in one day.

    Strasburg-Scheppers-Zimmermann-Lannan-Balester/Olsen?/Martis

  15. #15 by Dick - April 29th, 2009 at 14:12

    Berndaddy: Brian may want to make up buttons saying WWRD and sell them on this site! I’d buy a dozen for my friends.

  16. #16 by Shawn - April 29th, 2009 at 18:05

    Pittsburgh may make a run at Crow,but Neal Huntington seems to prefer bats in top ten from his days with Cleveland and last season. Donovan Tate or Dustin Ackley are just as likely if not more likely for the Buccos.

  17. #17 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - April 29th, 2009 at 19:17

    Bobby Bochering, 3b Bishop Verot H.S. in Florida will be a top 10 selection.

  18. #18 by Jeff E. - April 30th, 2009 at 23:57

    Dallas Keuchel- 4-7th rounder? Dustin Dickerson 3-4th round??

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