Nationals Farm Authority

The 2008 Winter Meetings wrap up in Las Vegas at 11:30AM with the Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 draft allows opportunities to players who were not placed on their team’s 40-man roster with other teams (more details here).

The Nats hold the first pick in today’s draft and seem likely to make at least one selection (they can make two if they want). This year’s draft has not received the buzz as some of the past years.

I had a posting on who I was interested in last week. The names I highlighted were:

• Jordan Brown 1B from Cleveland … the 24-year old Brown (25 on 12/18) was a 2005 4th round selection by the Indians as an OF out of the University of Arizona. Over the last two seasons, Brown has seen more time at 1B than in the OF and it looks like his future is there. He is a lefthanded bat but does not have the power a team typically looks for at 1B.  His 18 combined homers over the past two years are not prolific by any stretch of the imagination (though to be fair Buffalo and Akron play slightly less than a fair park for home runs … Akron actually is a bit tougher [data here]). But Akron BBA ranked him as the Indians #7 prospect just last season. Their scouting report read, “Brown profiles as a first baseman in the mold of Sean Casey or Lyle Overbay.” He is not the impact bat at 1B that someone like Mark Teixeira or Adam Dunn would be, but he is an interesting option if the Nationals have any concerns with the availability of Nick Johnson in 2009.
• James Skelton CA from Detroit … Another catcher might seem like an unusual option given the presence of Jesus Flores, but the 23-year old Skelton is intriguing as a lefthanded counterpart to Flores. He was a 14th round selection by the Tigers in the 2004 draft and has batted right around 300 for his minor league career. I doubt the Nationals will want to have two young catchers on the roster, but Skelton’s LH bat is something not typically found in the Rule 5 draft.
• RHRP Eduardo Morlan from Tampa Bay … this is the guy that most sites out there are targeting as the best available player in the draft. The 22-year old was part of the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade from last season. He throws in the low-90s and has struck out 382 batters to 120 walks in 321 minor league innings. The 6’2″ 220-lb righthander has made eight appearances in the Puerto Rican winter league with a 1-0 record with 2 saves, striking out twelve and walking three over eleven innings pitched. 
• LHSP Chuck Lofgren from Cleveland … starters are typically not selected in the draft given that they were unprotected because their organization did not consider them ready to fill in as a major league starter in the immediate. The 22- year old Lofgren (23 in January) might be an exception a rebuilding team like the Nats can take.  Drafted out of high school in the 4th round of the 2004 draft, Lofgren fits the mold of a solid back of the rotation starter. BBA had him ranked as the Indians #2 prospect last season. Their scouting report read “Lofgren adds and subtracts with his full arsenal of pitches, beginning with a fastball that ranges anywhere from 87-93 mph and tops out at 95. He added a slider in 2006 and developed it into a true out pitch last year. He also throws a spike curve in the upper 70s and an average changeup. An imposing presence on the mound, he gets downhill easily and pounds the bottom of the strike zone. The Indians love his makeup.”  He had a terrible 2008 where he was 2-6 with a 5.99 ERA and 1.69 WHIPfor Double-A Akron. The Nats could use another lefthanded option in their rotation if Odalis Perez does not return.
• LHRP Jose Lugo from Minnesota… Lugo throws a sinking mid-90s fastball. The 24-year old has struck out 295 batters over 300 minor league innings with 124 walks. It would be a huge jump for him from High A to the majors but the Nationals could use a lefthanded power arm out of the bullpen to complement Mike Hinckley.
• RHRP Pedro Strop from Texas … Strop is a converted shortstopwho was claimed off of waivers by the Texas Rangers from the Colorado Rockies despite undergoing surgery for a fracture in his right elbow. Reports are that he will be able to resume throwing in early 2009. He is all about potential, ranking as BBA’s #9 prospect for the Rockies in 2008. His scouting report, “Having pitched just 81 pro innings, Strop has a fresh arm that delivers power stuff. His fastball ranges from 92-96 mph, while his slider runs from 85-88 mph. He can make hitters look silly with his splitter, giving him three swing-and-miss pitches. He has adapted quickly to the nuances of pitching, most likely because of the feel for the game he showed at shortstop, and is an elite fielder, another sign of his shortstop background.”

Jonathan Mayo at MiLB.com has his preview up where he highlights some names to watch:

• Cubs LHP Donald Veal … “Chicago’s second-round pick in the 2005 Draft, has had a roller-coaster pro career thus far. Blessed with above-average stuff, he had a fantastic first full season in 2006, being mentioned among the better left-handed pitching prospects in the game. His ’07 was uneven, to say the least, and ’08 — a repeat of Double-A — was more of the same.”
• Pirates LHP Kyle Bloom … “a fifth-rounder in 2004 out of Illinois State University, has had an uneven career with the Pirates, reaching Double-A Altoona and posting a 4.25 career ERA. But he opened some eyes in Hawaii Winter Baseball this fall with a 1.50 ERA over seven starts, as he held hitters to a .144 average.”
• Brown
• Rockies MI Everth Cabrera … ”A native of Nicaragua who was signed by Colorado in 2004, Cabrera’s tool is his plus speed. The switch-hitter led all of the Minor Leagues with 73 stolen bases in 2008, getting caught 16 times. He hit .284 for Class A Asheville in the South Atlantic League. In 221 total professional games, he’s stolen 104 bases.”
• Yankees SS Reegie Corona … ”The Venezuelan shortstop originally signed with the Bombers in July 2003. He was an All-Star in the South Atlantic League in 2006 and again in ’07, this time in the Florida State League. In 2008, he played all season at age 21 in the Double-A Eastern League, hitting .274 with 24 steals.”
• Dodgers RHP Javy Guerra … ”After going 5-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 31 outings — almost all in relief — for Class A Inland Empire in the California League, Guerra struck out 28 in 23 1/3 innings in Hawaii Winter Baseball. The fourth-round pick in 2004 had been a starter, making the switch to relief this past season. “
• Lofgren
• Yankees LHP Zach Kroenke … ”The 2005 fifth-rounder out of the University of Nebraska made it up to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2008, combining for a 2.85 ERA and a .190 batting average against across two levels.”
• Rays RHP Chris Mason … ”Mason struggled in Triple-A and the AFL in 2008, so those who decide to take a shot with the 2005 second-rounder will be doing so based on his 2007 season, when he went 15-4 with a 2.57 ERA and was named MLB.com’s Double-A Starting Pitcher of the Year.”
• Morlan
• Cardinals RHP Luis Perdomo … ”The Carolina League All-Star was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals for Anthony Reyes in July. He had gone 3-1 with a 0.92 ERA and 18 saves for Class A Kinston before getting promoted to Double-A Akron and then being dealt to the Cardinals. Overall, he saved 20 games and had a 2.36 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He struck out 82 and held hitters to a .190 batting average against.”
• Mariners LHP Robert Rohrbaugh … ”A name that cropped up late, Rohrbaugh was a seventh-round pick in the 2005 Draft out of Clemson University. He had a 5.25 ERA with Triple-A Tacoma over 96 innings and missed two months of the season. Still, he’s a lefty who did come back to throw well at the end of the year.”

Adding to the information is Baseball America, who along with a complete list of Rule 5 eligibles, had some additional names to watch from John Manuel (he has an update this morning, looks like the Nats could lose recently signed minor league free agent RHP JD Martin to the Pirates):

• Dodgers RHP Jordan Pratt … ”The 2003 fifth-round pick out of an Oregon high school has yet to progress past Class A. He spent 2008 in high Class A Inland Empire and walked 67 (while striking out 80) in 69 innings. However, Pratt has premium stuff, with a fastball that consistently reaches 94 mph, and an inconsistent curveball and a premium cutter that helps him handle lefthanded hitters. They went 2-for-35 off him in Hawaii Winter Baseball, where Pratt showed off some smoother mechanics that helped him throw more strikes. Lefty David Pfeiffer of the Dodgers, a sidearmer, also was getting some attention.”
• Diamondbacks LHP Jordan Norberto … ”Norberto has upside, as he’s just 22 and has reached 96 mph with his fastball. He’s also spent the last two years in the low Class A Midwest League, striking out 220 in 204 innings while walking 102.”
• Rockies IF Corey Wimberly … ”No one in the class fits the utility profile better than Wimberly, a 5-foot-8 switch-hitter with plus speed and defensive versatility. Wimberly played second base, third base, shortstop and the outfield in ‘08 at Double-A Tulsa while posting a .370 on-base percentage. He lacks strength but has a solid track record as a hitter.”
• Twins RHP Loek Van Mil … ”The 7-foot-1 righthander has shown a fastball up to 97 mph in the past but has a partial ligament tear due after injuring his elbow just prior to the Beijing Olympics. Fellow Dutch national teamer Hainley Statia (Angels) remains the top middle-infield possibility in a thin group of players there.”

One other name that is worth watching is Marlins RHP Jeff Allison.  The 24-year old Allison was the 16th overall selection in the 2003 draft. His career has been derailed thus far by drug addiction, but some teams might be willing to gamble that the talent is still there and hope for a Josh Hamilton-like resurgence.

With all of that information, who do I think will the Nationals pick?

I’d hope they target one of the arms with the first selection rather than burn a pick on someone like Brown or Skelton. With the second pick, I still believe an arm is the better choice, though I can imagine a bat if an arm goes first. The guys that intrigue me the most are the relievers. Morlan (RH), Strop (RH), and Lugo (LH) from before along with new names like Pratt (RH), Norberto (LH), and Veal (LH).

I’m hoping for two relief pitchers, a righthander and lefthander.