Nationals Farm Authority

I normally focus only on the minor leaguers, but since I’ve worked my way from Hagerstown through Columbus, I thought I’d give my best guess at the 25-man big league roster.

• Catchers. Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada. They were the answers entering spring training and assuming health, they are the answers to start the season. But that’s not a sure thing with Lo Duca’s knee and Estrada’s various ailments, let’s go with elbow. The question now is who will be the backup catcher until Estrada is healthy. I feel confident predicting it’s not Jesus Flores. Flip a coin between Humberto Cota and Wil Nieves.
• First baseman. Nick Johnson. Dmitri Young has had health issues this spring and more importantly, Johnson is the better player.
• Second baseman. Felipe Lopez. The conventional wisdom is that this should be Ronnie Belliard but I believe the Nationals are going to give Lopez every opportunity to rebound from his subpar 2007. At the very least, it allows them to see if Lopez can turn himself into a tradable piece mid-season.
• Third baseman. Ryan Zimmerman. Next.
• Shortstop. Cristian Guzman. For the same thinking as Lopez, I see the Nats giving Guzman the regular playing time. If he can show himself valuable as a starting SS, he is another trade piece (as he is in the last year of his contract).
• Utility infielders. Young, Belliard, and Aaron Boone. If Boone isn’t ready for Opening Day, slide Rob Mackowiak into this spot.
• Left fielder. Wily Mo Pena. Jim Bowden is going to want to see Pena be given every opportunity to produce on a daily basis.
• Center fielder. Lastings Milledge. He’s the best CF option the Nationals have in their entire system (sorry Justin Maxwell fans).
• Right fielder. Austin Kearns. The second easiest pick of a bat after Zimmerman.
• Outfielders. Elijah Dukes and Willie Harris. It only makes sense to keep Dukes within arm’s reach as the Nats working on rehabilitating him. His spring production thus far helps justify that. Harris or Mackowiak is going to get this last spot or I guess it could go to Ryan Langerhans (personally, I hope not).
• Starting pitchers. John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, Odalis Perez, and Tim Redding. If the rumors are true, the Nationals are going to take advantage of early offdays and come north with only four starters. The one thing I can almost 100% guarantee … Shawn Hill starts off on the 15-day DL. Something to keep in mind, Redding is out of options so he’s almost a lock to stick until performance makes the Nats change their minds.
• Long reliever. Joel Hanrahan. His spring thus far and the fact he’s out of options makes it a near certainty he’s in the pen to start the season. 
• Closer. Chad Cordero. No-brainer. Though don’t count out a possible deal of Chief around June. He’s getting to the point where his return on investment is low enough that the Nats will try and see if they can get value for him from a team competing for a playoff spot. All closers with only a few exceptions (Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman being prime examples) have only a limited shelf life before they break down, hitters figure them out, or become far too expensive for the results they return. If Chief is dealt, look for Jon Rauch to slide into the closer role.
• Short relievers. Rauch, Saul Rivera, Luis Ayala, Jesus Colome, & Ray King. Based upon recent history, the Nationals should have a strong bullpen in 2008.

The Nats look to carry only two lefthanders (Perez and King) into the season and oddly enough both are going to require a 40-man move to open up spots. Notice that I have not placed either Ruke 5 (Matt Whitney or Garrett Guzman) on the 25-man. I just don’t see the Nationals hanging onto either guy. Not that the Nats don’t want them, more a belief an equitable deal won’t be worked out with the Indians (for Whitney) or Twins (for Guzman.) And voila, there are your two spots for the lefties.

If the Nationals have to add a backup catcher, I see Ryan Wagner  going on the 60-day DL.