NFA Top Prospects – #7
| Rank | Hitters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Steve Souza | Tyler Clippard |
| 8 | Esmailyn Gonzalez | Shairon Martis |
| 9 | Stephen King | Adam Carr |
| 10 | Ian Desmond | John Lannan |
| 11 | Derek Norris | Garrett Mock |
| 12 | Josh Whitesell | Brad Peacock |
| 13 | Matt Whitney | Brad Meyers |
| 14 | Garrett Guzman | Jhonny Nunez |
| 15 | Roger Bernadina | Zech Zinicola |
| 16 | Kory Casto | Marco Estrada |
| 17 | Andrew Lefave | Adrian Alaniz |
| 18 | Leonard Davis | Cory VanAllen |
| 19 | Dani Arias | Martin Beno |
| 20 | Bill Rhinehart | Hassan Pena |
| 21 | Mark Gildea | Yader Peralta |
| 22 | Aaron Seuss | PJ Dean |
| 23 | Edgardo Baez | Federico Tanco |
| 24 | Garrett Bass | Jack Spradlin |
| 25 | Alejandro Hodge | Marcos Frias |
| Francisco Soriano | Juan Jaime | |
| Yeurys Tejeda |
The #7 spots are occupied by guys that are more gut feels by me.
Steve Souza was a 2007 third round draft pick out of a high school in Washington. Souza was drafted as a strong-armed right-handed third baseman but began his professional career in left field. His value is certainly higher if he can remain as a third baseman as he progresses. Over 44 games in the GCL, the 18-year old Souza hit only 194/299/340 but flashed promising power with 13 of his 28 hits for extra bases. He certainly struck out too much (46 in 144AB) but scouts think he has the ability to develop above average power as he fills out. He’s certainly a high risk/high reward type of guy. Expect a start in Vermont in 2008 and watch to see if he can improve his approach at the plate.
Tyler Clippard was once considered the New York Yankees most promising arm (until Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy showed up). The 23-year old righthander has put some eye-popping strikeout numbers in his minor league career (640K over 609 1/3IP) but his first shot at the majors were brief and disappointing (18K and 17BB over 27IP). None of his pitches classify as anything more than average but he does bring three pitches to the mound (87-91 fastball, curve and change). His ceiling is realistically a #4 or 5 starter but I believe his move to the National League and opportunity to work with Randy St. Claire will pay dividends for the Nationals. He seems like he’ll be a victim of the numbers game in the battle for the starting rotation. With options remaining, I’d expect him to start 2008 in Columbus.
Brian –
Love the countdown! While I can pretty much guess the remaining 6 hitters (and pitchers), I’ve been curious to know your thoughts on one of the minor league FA pickups the Nats got — William Bergolla.
He’s a 24 year-old 2B. Played last year in AAA Fresno (SF system). Batted .306/.363/.433 with 22 doubles, 7 homers and 12 SB in 99 games.
Any chance, if any of the Nats MI get hurt/ineffective/traded, that Bergolla could sniff DC this year?
e- Thanks
Bergolla could stick around in Columbus to serve just the role you mentioned. The Nats have a few to choose from (Bergolla, Antonio Perez, and Eddie Rogers).
Brian- What do you value most in a prospect? Ceiling, value of position to the club, likelihood of reaching the ceiling? I’m a little confused about the last few hitters.
Absolutly off topic, but I figured you would be able to explain this, Brian. What is MLBs Two Sports Rule? I read about it in prospect descriptions all the time.
Eliot – Honestly you could order the last four guys (Souza through Desmond) in any order you wanted to. They were realistically 7a, b, c, and d for me. I gave Souza the nod because of his power bat. He’s certainly a big risk. He could be a solid starting 3B (or LF) or he could flame out. Smiley and King being pegged as 2B limits them some to me (but only marginally). And I think Desmond still carries some caution for me given how long he’s been a prospect.
What do I value? I try and balance ceiling with chance to reach ceiling. Position is something I’d like to consider but to be honest with you, the Nationals are strong in the OF (as the #1-6 bats will show) while there is still serious work to do in the middle infield, catchers, and yes even 3B.
Chaz – I don’t believe there is an actual rule (commenters/readers … correct me if I’m wrong). The very nature of playing baseball limits someone from two sports to a certain degree. A season lasts from February to October (ostensibly) and that really bleeds into pro football or basketball. Guys like Deion Sanders and Bo Jackson and Brian Jordan are honestly the exceptions to the rule.
I did some research and it appears to be an NCAA rule, but it’s not clear what it means nowadays. Most of the references were to the archaic Ivy League rule (which forced Chris Young to quit playing Princeton basketball) or to Jeremy Bloom, who was a pro skier while playing football for Colorado Univ., but there wasn’t any clear definition anywhere in the most common reference to baseball, which appears to have something to do with two sports over five years.
I usually hear about it in reference to signing bonuses
Good list…switch #7 with #9, jmo. Also, Souza has played zero outfield as a pro…may be thinking of Smolinski. Great stuff.