Allan Simpson at PGCrosschecker.com has some free content about how MLB teams area adhering to MLB’s mandate to reduce signing bonuses by 10%. Case in point, the Nationals signed #6 pick Ross Detwiler to a $2.15M bonus which is > 10% reduction over the average bonus from 2003 through 2005 (excluding Andrew Miller’s 2006 major league contract from the calculation). The average #6 pick received $2,450,000 bonus. A 10% reduction to that amount equates to a $2,182,500 bonus.
Of more important news was this information about 6th round selection Jack McGeary:
McGeary was said to be unsignable before the draft if he didn’t receive significant first-round money and he slipped to the fifth (sic) round, where he was drafted by the Nationals. Sources say that the Nationals are prepared to pay McGeary a bonus between $2 million and $2.5 million, while making concessions that would allow him to attend school at Stanford for at least two quarters a year initially while also playing minor league baseball.
If true, and assuming they can get 31st pick Josh Smoker under contract, that is tremendous news for a Nationals draft that would qualify as a success from a talent infusion standpoint. The next step would be to see if the player development system in place can develop a solid core of players for the future.
#1 by Kevin - July 12th, 2007 at 19:51
Oh, man, what a coup that would be! Do we know for sure that McGeary would be a star? Of course not. But it would be a gold-encrusted signal of good will to the fans, that the nats are serious about The Plan. Please let it be true.
#2 by Chris - July 12th, 2007 at 20:38
Signing both would be great news, I have a bad feeling that it’s going to be one or the other tho, hope I’m wrong.
Side note, BA put up the signing bonuses for everying in the top 10 rounds. Here’s the Nats picks
Detwiler 2.15 Burgess 630K Zimmerman 495K Smolinski 452.5K Souza 346 Norris 210 Myers 145.8 Dean 120 Alaniz 75 Gildea 95 McCoy 100K
The article from PG talks about how teams like the Yankees, Sox and Tigers all are just ignoring the Commishs office on the guidelines and I dont understand why we don’t do the same.
#3 by Ric - July 12th, 2007 at 20:44
I disagree — if the Nationals have to pay him that much and give him concessions, I think that they should pass. McGeary shouldn’t get much more than Smoker and definitely not as much as or more than Detwiler. And making special concessions to allow him to miss time in the minors is a mistake. I’d pass.
#4 by Brian Oliver - July 12th, 2007 at 20:49
Ric – The allowing school concession is honestly not that huge a deal. It just means that he’ll spend his winter at Stanford going to class and working out. As for the bonus, I’d agree it’s a bit on the high side and I’d hope it was not greater than what Detwiler got. As for a comparison to Smoker, I’m not that concerned if McGeary gets paid more than he does.
#5 by Alan - July 12th, 2007 at 21:29
I read somewhere that the Commissioner’s office is using awarding future All Star games as leverage to enforce signing bonus guidelines for clubs that want it – that would be the Nationals… You want to host the ASG in your shiny new ball park? Whatcha gonna do for me?
Who could be surprised when this tactic doesn’t work very well on the Yankees and BoSox…
#6 by dd - July 12th, 2007 at 22:33
Signing McGeary to a huge mega million dollar bonus would be a huge mistake. This high school player is good, but I doubt he could command such a high amount in the uncertain future ahead of him. What signal would that send to other players who signed without as much “arm twisting”? Detwiler, Burgess, Zimmerman,… signed in good faith, without any concessions. Zimmerman, by the way, is off to an impressive start . There have been far too many “busts” among drafted pitchers (Brien Taylor anyone?) to take such a gamble on a high school pitcher. If he is that good, maybe the Nats could draft him when he is a more mature, college-tested hurler, closer to the big leagues. Too many uncertainties with high school pitchers. Let McGeary go if the reported multi million dollar rumor is true. Sign Smoker if possible or try the compensation pick next year.
#7 by Mjames - July 12th, 2007 at 23:08
I agree with Kevin. The Nats plan is to build through the draft. They cut expenses at the major league level to focus on the draft. They cut salaries from $60mm to $36mm. We are talking about $4mm in bonuses for McGreay and Smoker – merely change in the overall scheme of things. Signing McGreay and Smoker sends a message to the fans. The fans will be more patient if they see the Nats are serious about building through the draft. Detwiler could care less about the bonus if he makes to the big leagues this year. This can be said for all draftees. Signing with the Nats gives them the best shot to get to the majors.
#8 by Eric Hartman - July 13th, 2007 at 06:02
To me Smoker is far more important than McGeary. If we don’t sign Smoker then that makes two consecutive years where we lose a high pick because we couldn’t close the deal. You want me to get excited about our drafts? Then you damn well better sign the higher picks. We don’t have visibility on what the Smoker camp is demanding so perhaps it’s easy to criticize. If his demands are outragios then it’s a different ballgame. From what I can tell McGeary isn’t the talent that Smoker is though that’s also hard to say. If we get both of these pitchers under contract then this draft has the potential to propel the franchise for a decade. Now THAT’S exciting. All four of those pitchers (Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary, Zimmerman) could round out a starting rotation if all goes well. Nice to dream about.
#9 by Brian Oliver - July 13th, 2007 at 06:54
Keep in mind that starting with this draft that if the Nationals do not sign Smoker, they get a comparable pick in the 2008 draft. While I agree getting Smoker signed is important and should still be a focus, there is a flexibility there that did not exist with Sean Black in 2006.
As for the comparison between Smoker and McGeary, it’s close. Smoker is probably rated slightly higher than McGeary but it’s close enough that there are likely as many scouts who like Smoker over McGeary as there are those who prefef McGeary over Smoker.
#10 by dd - July 13th, 2007 at 08:06
Would it take two million to sign Smoker? At #6, Detwiler took slightly over 2 million. Would McGeary command more than 2 M? Why Mcgeary and not Smoker if they are equal talents?
#11 by Brian Oliver - July 13th, 2007 at 08:45
I wouldn’t imagine it would take $2 million for Smoker (well, at least until Smoker’s “advisor” heard that McGeary news from yesterday).
My thinking with the high price tag on McGeary is that it is driven almost entirely by the cost of buying him out of his commitment to Stanford.
#12 by Dick - July 13th, 2007 at 09:22
As I said a few days ago, Smoker’s deal comes down to options. Most people would believe that the choice between $1 million (in round numbers, the 31st pick slot number) and Clemson is not the same as the option McGeary has to go to Stanford. How much more valuable is a Stanford education than a Clemson education? That is what is at play here and what the Nats must buy out.
Again, I’ll preach patience. These are tough decisions for an 18 year old!
#13 by Kevin - July 13th, 2007 at 10:44
It’s hard. I use up all my patience on the Nationals themselves. That’s why the minors are really where it’s at this year. I want tangible results, and quickly! OK, joking some there, but the results I would settle for include respect from the rest of the league, and from writers rating the system and the ownership. These things would be measurable progress.
#14 by Dick - July 13th, 2007 at 16:57
The Stanford academic schedule shows a four quarter schedule. The Autumn Quarter (not Fall, it is Stanford) begins September 18. The Winter Quarter begins January 8. The Winter Quarter ends March 21. The Spring and Summer Quarters go from April 1 through August 16.
It is easy to see how it would be feasible to go to school for two quarters a year while playing in the minor leagues with only a few weeks of spring training in conflict. You would have to be a dedicated young man to sign up for this!
Assuming something like this could be worked out logistically, it would be hard to figure why McGeary would deserve any more than Smoker.
#15 by Jane - July 14th, 2007 at 01:00
Allowing a signee to get paid an enormous bonus, go to school and play ball will open up a can of worms. Everybody will want that deal!
Why WOULD McGeary deserve more than Smoker??? If the Nationals thought he was better, why wouldn’t they pick him 31st since they were going to give him first round money anyway? Too overpay him like that will be a total slap in the face to Smoker and Detwiler!!!
Have you seen both of them play? On the summer team they both played for last summer, Smoker was the #1 starter, McGeary was #4. Smoker has won Most Valuable Pitcher at Perfect Games most prestigious tournament in WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, FL for the last two years in row.
from PG Crosschecker -
DRAFTED BY: Washington Nationals.
SCOUTING REPORT: No high school pitcher in draft history likely has a longer “track record” of pitching against high-caliber competition or pitching in front of scouts than does Smoker, who has been pitching in the semi-final or final games of most national summer/fall tournaments for the East Cobb Astros since before his sophomore year in his school.
#16 by Brian Oliver - July 14th, 2007 at 08:30
Jane – It’s no different than what the Nationals did with regards to Esmailyn Gonzalez. Last year the Nationals made a statement by in essence overpaying for a prospect from the Dominican Republic. They let the buscones (player agents) know that they were once again a consideration internationally. From what I have read, Smiley is a solid prospect but not necessarily one that should command the bonus he received.
My thought is that this is the same thought process regarding McGeary. If the Nationals do in fact sign him, they are making the statement they are willing to work the draft in a manner similar to what the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels do. All of those teams have recently taken advantage of players sliding due to signability reasons. If the the Nationals were to go after McGeary who was considered a 1st round talent, they would let it be known they are willing to pay to play.
As for your concern about how the other players would react, I doubt there is that much concern about any can of worms. Players drafted in the first round or so are going to get their bonuses and they know how the system works. MLB is much more diligent about watching the overslot moves in the first five rounds of the draft. After that, they watch but typically do not do anything more than strongly recommend against overslot. A college junior is in the tough position that they are most likely to get their strongest offer that year. Once you become a college senior, the leverage to go back to college disappears, putting the strength in negotiations with the team. For high school seniors, they are gambling a higher bonus versus three years off of the market with the hopes that they continue to develop. Someone like Smoker needs to realistically go in the top 20 in 2010 to recoup money lost by not signing.
Do I think McGeary should get more than Detwiler? No, he was not considered the 5th or better overall player in the draft. Would offering him ~$2 million and the concessions be worth it? Sure, he has a strong commitment to Stanford and it will cost something to buy him out of that. What do I think about Smoker? His slot bonus is ~$1 million and I’d imagine he’s looking for something along the lines of what Colton Willems got last year at ~$1.4M. The question is not will Smoker compare his bonus to McGeary’s, it’s whether he believes three years at Clemson are going to put him in the position to get a Detwiler like contract.
In the end the bonuses are nice but every single one of these guys realizes the real money is made once they make the major leagues. And the sooner you get yourself started professionally, the closer you get to the arbitration process and eventually free agency. And that’s where the real compensation is.
#17 by fred - July 14th, 2007 at 18:09
Brian- Why couldn’t the Nationals make the same statement by overpaying Smoker a smaller amount and then using the money saved to go after free agents? Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers don’t care what round they go over slot in. I think you will see alot of over slot deals done in the next few weeks. In the end, it comes down to a personal decision by the player and his parents as to what they are going to do. Only they and the management people of the team involved know all of the circumstances that were presented.
I would bet that Smoker thinks he can spend three years at Clemson, where he can eat all he wants, work out everyday, and play in front of 5,000 fans and get better. The big question is can he stay healthy? If he does, then he will probably get David Price numbers, if he doesn’t, at least he has his education and the college experience.
#18 by Brian Oliver - July 14th, 2007 at 18:53
The big over slot bonuses typically happen in the latter rounds of the draft. MLB is holding teams to closer to slot in the earlier rounds, specifically the first five. It’s unfortunate that a player selected in round 1 through 5 has to be held to a stricter standard than other rounds, but it’s the way the system works. Is it an effective system? I’d say no. But Smoker is honestly gambling with his future bonus if he attends Clemson. Could he turn into David Price? Sure, but history runs against that happening. It’s a matter of when (if?) he wants to start a professional career. He has a $1 million minimum (roughly) on the table, if he feels he has the ability to turn a #31 pick into a top 10 pick in 2010, more power to him.
#19 by Brian Oliver - July 14th, 2007 at 18:55
As for your question about the money going to free agents … $2-2.5 million dollars doesn’t go a long way on the free agent market. From what it appears the Nationals are still focused on restocking the farm system. They’d more than likely use that $2 million to sign international prospects than put it in the major league F/A bucket.