I have been remiss this year in providing a draft track of the top players in the 2010 MLB First Year Player Draft. Last year, the discussion began and ended around RHP Stephen Strasburg who has done nothing to disprove the hype he received entering the 2009 season.
The player that bore that mantle this year was College of Southern Nevada catcher Bryce Harper. And much like, Strasburg, the 17-year old Harper has likely exceeded expectations. Over 58 regular season games for CSN, Harper batted 415/504/891 with 23 home runs and 68 RBI … all for a Junior College that played with wood bats.
Not to be outdone, Harper has put on a show in the playoffs where he shifted to an aluminum bat. He homered in his first game, hit for the cycle in his second game, went 2/5 with a three-run double, and hit four homers in his latest game for CSN … sending them to the JuCo World Series.
It’s pretty clear that Harper is the choice for the Nationals at #1 overall on June 7. Like Strasburg, he’s represented by Scott Boras, which means if/when he’s selected, do not anticipate a quick sign. He’ll most likely wait for the signing deadline of August 15.
(as an aside, here is an interesting article linking Harper’s coach at CSN to the Nationals)
#1 by cjrugger - May 24th, 2010 at 09:41
Wowzers, that kid should not be allowed to use an aluminum bat
I’ll say he signs at 11:58 for 13mil
#2 by markfd - May 24th, 2010 at 09:46
Boras’ asking price just went up again!
#3 by Greg - May 24th, 2010 at 09:55
I feel like Harper armed with an aluminum bat should be illegal in 48 states
#4 by Russ - May 24th, 2010 at 10:24
I am interested to see how he does in the Juco World Series. It should be fun to watch. The Nats need to get this guy and I am guessing he will be a quick study in the minors. Also, the Strasburg/Harper show should be fun to watch in a few years!
#5 by Marcus - May 24th, 2010 at 10:45
Assuming we draft & sign him I think the smartest move would b to move him to OF can’t put that much money n the kid & risk put him at a position w/ so much injury risk
#6 by ckstevenson - May 24th, 2010 at 11:36
I agree with Marcus, unless he shows he’s clearly good at receiving and calling a game we’re better off not treating him like the next Joe Mauer and moving him to another position (OF/1B).
The wind was blowing out, and he had an aluminum bat, he should have hit MORE hr’s! (j/k)
#7 by dd - May 24th, 2010 at 12:11
Bryce harper is playing great as a 17 year old in a junior college program. Believe it or not, with all the phenominal stats he is putting together, he is not in the top thirty in BA and actually third in homers! There are some pretty amazing numbers by several players.
#8 by Scott - May 24th, 2010 at 12:18
You guys have to be kidding. If you can get a truly special bat to play at catcher, you have to do it unless the kid completely flames out. Harper has a plus-plus arm and apparently scouts think he definitely has a chance back there, so there’s absolutely no reason not to see if he can stick.
Just right now, you have Mauer, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Jesus Montero and our own Derek Norris among catchers whose bats are special enough they could have already been moved from behind the plate, but haven’t been because the premium for a great-hitting catcher is so big.
And if Harper has a chance to actually be a GOOD catcher, which he probably does given his arm strength and athleticism, you have to give him a chance. How big a mistake would it have been for the Cincinnati Reds to say, hey, we’ll move Johnny Bench to RF as a 19-year old so we don’t wear out his knees in 15 years?
#9 by Scott - May 24th, 2010 at 12:29
For example, there are only 9 players who played more than 75% of their games at catcher, had more than 3000 plate appearances, and had a career OPS+ of 125 or greater (OPS 25% better than the league). Here they are:
Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Jorge Posada, Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Ernie Lombardi, Mickey Cochrane, and Joe Mauer.
That’s seven hall of famers and 2 future hall of famers.
The same search for OF yields 96 players, only 36 of whom are in the hall of fame. That shows you how rare it is to have a potential great hitting catcher. I’d say the risk is worth it.
#10 by Greg - May 24th, 2010 at 12:46
Wieters, too.
#11 by Sue Dinem - May 24th, 2010 at 12:55
I’d like to know why there is an implicit assumption that the junior-college arms Harper has been facing are good enough to not qualify his performance. See “Salt, Grain of”
#12 by Brian Oliver - May 24th, 2010 at 13:27
Understand your grain of salt comment
But regardless of level of competition, having two games like that is impressive
#13 by Todd Boss - May 24th, 2010 at 13:28
Scouting reports i’ve seen call his JuCo league the equivalent of “low division 1.” So yeah its not like playing in the SEC/ACC, but its woodbat all year. Oh, and they’re all 3-4 years older than he.
Works for me. He’s a phenom, hitters project better than pitchers at the top of the draft, its a nobrainer. who cares where he ranks in random categories; he’s #1 on everyone’s draft board including (hopefully) our own.
#14 by Pilchard - May 24th, 2010 at 13:52
Harper’s competition is not stellar, but also keep in mind that he is 17 and would be a junior in HS had Harper not taken the GED. There is no doubt that Harper is playing against older players at a level above HS and dominating as a 17 year old. Says a lot.
#15 by Scott - May 24th, 2010 at 13:57
Well, you’re talking about a kid whose equivalency in high D-1 as a 17-year old (including a tradeoff between higher competition but using metal bats) would have been, from the most conservative standpoint, .275/.375/.550. And that’s a REALLY conservative estimate
I mean, Zack Cox, who is going to be a top ten pick, hit .266/.342/.558 as a freshman last year, so comparable to Harper, right? No reason to get excited?
Well Cox was THREE years older than Harper last year. So we’re really probably talking about a kid conservatively 3 years ahead of other top ten picks, with a significantly higher ceiling. That’s good enough for me at this point.
#16 by nick - May 24th, 2010 at 14:13
Hi Brian. Besides the draft, a key area that the Nats need to focus on is the international free agent market. Unfortunately, the lack of action on this front is totally baffling, if not depressing. I just read from BA that the Astros of all teams, signed two players for a total of about $800,000. Please tell me you have some info. that the Nats are at least trying..
#17 by Brian Oliver - May 24th, 2010 at 14:16
nick – Frankie Piliere who is plugged into the international market stated the Nats are looking at the top guys, doing their due diligence
I guess it’s a baby step, but still somewhat disappointing
#18 by John - May 24th, 2010 at 14:25
Why is this disappointing? Do you/Frankie mean that’s all they’re going to do?
#19 by Brian Oliver - May 24th, 2010 at 14:30
John – They were not linked to any of them, just there scouting.
#20 by Sue Dinem - May 24th, 2010 at 14:56
And before the philistines start to chime, it doesn’t mean I’m against taking Harper; just the one-handed typing. Sickels has him as #1 overall and that’s good enough for me: http://bit.ly/9×8bxF
#21 by Marcus - May 24th, 2010 at 14:58
Scott: I see what you’re saying but the situations are different. None of the players you’re talking about recieved even half as much money as Harper will likely recieve. Therefore the risk of having him at backstop is much greater. Plus I’d rather have his bat in the line-up more often as a OF since he wont need as many days off as a backstop would.
#22 by Jeff - May 24th, 2010 at 15:31
Hasn’t Harper been in the OF during his JUCO stint anyway? I don’t think he’s slated to be a MLB catcher at all… Corner OF with amazing power potential & a rocket arm…
#23 by Wally - May 24th, 2010 at 15:32
I think that Harper and Strasburg are remarkable prospects; in other words, it appears that both of these guys are more than just the best prospect in their particular draft. And yes, as many have said, extraordinary prospects do not always turn into extraordinary pros. But what I find even more interesting is that they came in two consecutive drafts, which also happens to be the two years that the Nats finish last the year before. And making it even better, neither draft was considered very deep, making the importance of being #1 (v. anywhere else in the top 10) a huge advantage.
As for Harper, I think that the major league v. minor league contract may be a big deal in getting him signed. I hope that I am wrong, but I think that Rizzo will be reluctant to commit to having him on the 25 man roster within 3 years (and I would share the reluctance). Be great if his play gets him there, but committing with all of that in front of him could get very dicey.
#24 by Scott - May 24th, 2010 at 16:04
The safest place to put your money might be under your mattress, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good strategy.
And the financial difference between him and those other guys in terms of their post-draft contracts is one injured year of Jason Marquis, so let’s not pretend like the difference between $5 million and $12 million is really a big deal in the grand scheme of things.
There’s always a risk of injury. You don’t hedge your bets by putting potential plus bats/gloves at premium positions in plastic bubbles in the corner OF.
Rizzo, like every other competent GM, will put Harper behind the plate until he proves he needs to be moved. That’s why Santana’s still there, that’s why Posey’s there, that’s why Weiters is there, that’s why Mauer is there, that’s why Montero and Norris are there despite evidence that they’ll HAVE to move eventually. It’s an amazing asset to have a plus hitting catcher and you don’t give that up simply because it’s “safer” to put a guy in RF.
@Jeff – from stolen base attempts (a rough estimate at best) it looks like Harper has about 40% of the team total, so he’s played a substantial part of the season behind the plate, and all the scouts think that’s his final position unless he ends up unable to play it.
#25 by Richard - May 24th, 2010 at 16:42
RE Harper’s stats, “dd” above says Harper isn’t in the top 30 in BA and finished 3rd in homers. But he dominated his JUCO league. See http://www.scenicwestsports.com/custompages/baseball/html10/lgplyrs.htm#leagp.ldr. So, I’m assuming dd means nationally rather than in his league. Yes?
#26 by Jeff - May 24th, 2010 at 17:27
Scott, he may have started playing the season at Catcher. I’ve kept up with the latter part of the season and he has been a RF/CF for the most part. Just saying. He’s obviously gearing himself for a permanent position change or else he would be committing himself 100% to Catcher…
#27 by Scott - May 26th, 2010 at 11:18
Well neither Harper nor his Juco coach is going to be the one who decides where he starts his professional career. But here’s the latest from John Sickels, who I trust more than anyone in a blog’s comments section: “he might have to move to right field or first base eventually if he outgrows catcher.”
That leads me to believe that he’ll be a catcher until…well, he CAN’T be a catcher anymore. As I said, that’s no different than any one of the numerous highly touted prospects I listed above including Santana, Posey, Norris, Mauer, Posada, Montero, etc.