(Note: Brian has been gracious to allow me to continue to post here and there about nat-worthy topics).

With the high school seasons starting now that its late February (remember DC folks; not everyone in the country got 4 feet of snow) and the college seasons 2-3 weeks in, lets take a look at some of the big names in the draft.   I’ll talk about at least Harper, Taillon, Renaudo, Renden and McGuire.

While lots of pundits and readers already believe Bryce Harper is the presumptive #1 overall pick for the Nats, a lot can happen between now and June.  Harper might tail off badly, get hurt, decided he wants more money than Strasburg, etc.  So lets take a look at the top 4-5 names on most scouts minds.  This is the first in a series of articles focusing on the top draft prospects that the Nationals might be considering.

Jameson Taillon is RHP from The Woodlands High School in The Woodlands, TX (near Houston).  This big high school righty already has a big league body (6′6″ 225) and his fastball is already is “sitting” in the 95-97 range.  Wow.  Imagine how much better this guy can get if he continues to grow and gain strength on what is already a 70-75 fastball.  (Here’s Keith Law’s latest scouting post talking about Taillon, dated 2/26/10, and Jason Churchill’s latest scouting post dated 2/24/10, both ESPN insider only).  He seems like the next in a series of hard throwing big Texas kids along the lines of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Josh Beckett or Huston Street.  He’s verbally committed to Rice but there seems little chance he passes up on a major signing bonus.

Taillon’s problem: no right-handed prep pitcher have ever gone #1 overall, and the two lefty prep pitchers that did go #1 overall (David Clyde in 1973 and Brien Taylor in 1991) didn’t really turn out that great.  Clyde’s story is rather infamous; Texas took him out of a local HS #1 overall in 1973 and he was pitching for the team by late June.  Despite a fantastic debut he struggled (who wouldn’t with zero minor league time?) and made his last major league start when he was 24.  Tayler was even more infamous; signing with the Yankees after showing an upper 90s fastball in highschool and then destroying his left shoulder in a bar fight two years later.

Truth is, prep players are huge gambles no matter how much upside they have or how level headed they may be.  If you look at the Nationals’ HS draft picks over the past 4-5 years only one is really showing major promise (Derek Norris).  The likes of Hood, Burgess, Marrero, Englund, King, Willems, McGeary and Smoker have all struggled and disappointed, contributing to the lower rankings of our overall farm system right now.

That being said, in modern baseball circles a guy like Taillon has already done enough traveling and pitching in various competitions that one could argue that he is as prepared for professional baseball as any college guy.  Taillon has been on all-USA teams for years, was the leader of the under-18 team that won the World Championships down in Venezuela and has so many opportunities to pitch and compete in these “showcases” that he had to turn some down in order to stay eligible for his high school academically.

Taillon features very high on most draft boards (most have him 2-3, some have him #1 over Harper), but I cannot see the Nats taking him over Harper at this point.  Rizzo generally wants more polished, quicker to the majors players (read, College guys).  The Nats are now suddenly full of pitching prospects after 2009’s arm-heavy draft.  Some team just below us in the 2010 draft will take Taillon and possibly have the next Rick Porcello on their hands.  Possibly a team like Baltimore (drafting #3) since Pittsburgh seems to like college players as well.

What does NatsFarm think?

The U-18 COPABE Pan Am “AAA” (18U) Championships finished up over the weekend in Barquisimeto, Venezuela, and the USA team beat 7 time defending champion Cuba in the finals.

In the semi finals: USA crushed Panama 18-2 (box/gamer).  Philip Pheifer pitched a slaughter rule shortened 6 inning complete game and the top of the USA order came alive to destroy Panama.  Our 1-2-3 hitters Sean Coyle, Tony Wolters and Bryce Harper went a combined 8-11, scoring 10 runs and driving in 9 to pace the team.  Harper (playing CF) finally had the break out game we’ve been expecting, going 3-3 (with two walks thrown in), scoring 3 and driving in 5.  Harper displayed both power and speed with a double, a homer and two stolen bases.

In the Finals: USA d Cuba to win the Gold Medal 6-1 (box/gamer).  High end 2010 pitching prospect Jamie Taillon dominated the Cuban team, giving up 4 hits, 0 runs and striking out 16 in 7 2/3s innings to lead the US to victory.  USA’s hitters finally got to a tiring Cuban starter Julio Martinez, scoring all 6 runs in the 7th inning to claim the title.  Harper was behind the plate for the final and was quiet at the plate, with just a sac fly rbi to show for his 0-3 day.

The final stats for the USA team are here.  Harper finishes the tournament 10-34 with 4 doubles and 2 homers and enough extra base hits to lead the team in total bases.  .294/.375/.588 was his final line.  The breakout hitting star of the team is SS Manny Machado, who put up a .367/.472/.600 with 2 homers to put his name firmly on the 2010 draft map.

For a lot of these players, this was their first major competition using solely wood bats, and many struggled to put up the impressive numbers they are accustomed to with aluminum.  For those picking on Bryce Harper’s numbers; remember he JUST turned 17 (born 10/1/1992) and is still amazingly advanced for his age (hence his potential).

The USA finished pool play 6-0 and are into the semis of the U-18 tournament being held in Venezuela.

The Semifinals are today: USA v Panama (who they destroyed 14-0 in pool play).  The other semi-final will be Cuba v Venezuela.

1st and 3rd place games tomorrow.  I’ll summarize the tourney once the championship game has been played in a final post with final stats for our guys.

Bryce Harper has really not looked very good at the plate in this tournament.  The team stats through pool play show that Castellanos and Machado are really the hitters driving this team.

Games 4-6 in pool play summaries are below:

Game 4: USA d Columbia 19-0 (box/gamer)in a mercifully shortened 7-innings.  Harper highlights: caught, batted 3rd, 1-5 with a homer and 3 runs scored.  Every USA position player had a hit in the onslaught.

Game 5: USA d Cuba 9-5 (box/gamer).  The USA finally played some tough opposition in this tourney and had to use a 6-run eighth inning to overcome Cuba.  Harper highlights: playing Catcher, went 0-5 with a run and an rbi.  It was a slopppy game; USA only had 5 hits and none of our big hitters really contributed to the win.

Game 6: USA d host Venezuela 6-3 (box/gamer).  Harper: 1-3 with a walk, playing CF and was replaced in the lineup later in the game.  Manny Machado was the star of this game, hitting his 2nd HR and reaching base 4 times.

By virtue of Pittsburgh’s 11-1 victory today over the LA Dodgers, the Washington Nationals are guaranteed the number #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft.  The Nationals have a 7 game “lead” on the Pirates for the worst record in the league this year with 7 games remaining.  This means that even if the Pirates lost their remaining 7 games and we (somehow) won our remaining seven games, we’d be tied for the worst record and Washington would get the number 1 pick by virtue of a worse record in 2008.

Congratulations. Let the Bryce Harper ruminations begin.