Everyone knows the name at the top of practically everyone’s list of 2010 draft prospects.
Bryce Harper. The 17-year old Harper is batting 408/500/831 over his first 20 games at the College of Southern Nevada, a junior college that plays with wood bats. Harper has six home runs and twenty RBI (also of interest, Bryce’s brother Bryan, an unsigned 2008 draft pick by the Nats, is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA with 34K and 14BB over 23 2/3IP as a LHSP).
As of today, Harper is the prohibitive favorite to go first overall when the Nats select first overall in this year’s Rule 4 draft.
But it is not a slam dunk a #1 as Stephen Strasburg was for the Nats in 2009. Here are the other guys I am tracking as possibilities for the Nats pick in 2010:
- HS RHSP Jameson Taillon: He has pitched in the upper-90s for Woodlands HS in Texas, hitting 99. While he has a legitimate shot to go first overall, I’m not sure if a Mike Rizzo led team would go with a HS RHP first overall (it would be the first time ever)
- LSU RHSP Anthony Ranaudo: Entering the 2010 season, along with Taillon, Ranuado was the closest competition for Harper at #1 overall. Working in the low to mid-90s with above average control. But a stress reaction in his right elbow has limited him to just five innings so far. Not sure he’s still in the running for #1 overall, but someone might get a steal in the mid/late first round.
- Georgia Tech RHSP Deck McGuire: Of any of the college arms, McGuire has the most Mike Rizzo feel to him. He throws a heavy 90+ mph fastball with a sharp curve. As of today, if the Nats were not to go with Harper, I’d think McGuire has the best chance to go #1.
- Arkansas 3B Zack Cox: A draft-eligible sophomore, Cox is all about the power. His strike zone judgment is a concern, but the bat is impressive. With the chance to go back for his junior season, I’m not sure if he’s in the #1 overall picture.
- Middle Tennessee State OF Bryce Brentz: I’ll let Andy Seiler describe Brentz in detail. He is a corner OF who is under consideration for a shot in center field (he also pitches). I’m not sure what it is about Brentz, but if the Nats want a bat and are not comfortable with the youth of Harper, I like the idea of Brentz at #1 overall.
I still think Harper is the right choice for #1 overall, those are just some other names I find intriguing.
#1 by cjrugger - March 11th, 2010 at 23:44
For the concerns everyone has about Harper, I cant justify taking anyone over him at this point. Taillon would be intriguing, but I can’t see Rizzo (plus it’s never been done) taking a HS P that early. If Deck McGuire keeps putting up Nintendo numbers I’d be intrigued, but its really Harpers to lose in my eyes
#2 by Brian Oliver - March 12th, 2010 at 06:19
cj – I am with you. I still think Harper is the best available at #1. It’s not as wide a gap as Strasburg/Ackley in 2009 but he is the best available according to practically every reliable industry source.
#3 by joNAThan - March 12th, 2010 at 09:10
It will be interesting to see if other clubs engage in a campaign to raise enough questions about Harper that folk might question his selection as #1. Brian, do clubs put out info hoping a prospect will fall? Perhaps I’m jaded by living to close to Washington and all the political BS we see!
#4 by estuartj - March 12th, 2010 at 09:45
DC baseball writers (both of them?) must be salivating at the puns available regarding a pitcher named Deck.
One issue I’m curious about with Harper, IF he is the next A-Rod or Griffey, Jr what is his position? I’ve heard he has the athleticism to play anywhere except SS & SP, but if he is on the rocket trajectory of those I just mentioned he will not be Catching in the bigs – even for a phenom he won’t be ready for the behind the plate duties at 19.
Based on his arm strength I’d guess he’s a Right Fielder or 3B for most teams, or am I way off base?
#5 by Mark - March 12th, 2010 at 10:57
estuartj – great question and probably one that can’t be answered until he’s closer to the bigs. My guess is that the Nats would love to use both Norris and Harper – a tempting possibility that means you have to move one of them to their best second position. With Harper’s reported athleticism, it would be hard not to move him to OF with Norris at catcher, provided he develops his defensive skills over the next 2-3 years. You could always try Norris at 1B with Harper catching, too. Ultimately there are too many variables to accuratetly predict, but it’s fun to project!
#6 by markfd - March 12th, 2010 at 11:03
Thanks for the update Brian. This draft has much more room for debate than last year, Harper’s skills at his age are impressive but I wish he actually had a defined position, he is playing at muliple positions which I do not think is good for a 17 yo, he needs to work on fundamentals…can we send Pudge out to take a look at him and see what his assessment is of him as a future catcher!?
I like the idea of getting another college arm, Ranaudo if healthy is my choice because he plays in the best conference with McGuire being arm #1b.
#7 by cjrugger - March 12th, 2010 at 11:34
Here’s what a scout said about Ranaudo in the espn draft blog: “[The draft] is such a roll of the dice as it is,” he explained. “Adding to the risk of paying a pitcher at least a couple million bucks when you know he’s had a history of this … it just doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
He’s a bit downbeat for my tastes but it shows how leary teams are of arm problems with big bonus guys
Re Harpers position: He’s played catcher in 4 of his last 5 games, along with RF and CF. And who says he’s going to be in the big leagues at 19? He turns 18 in october, and won’t have a pro AB until next february (18y 5mos) You think he’s going from 0 to majors in 18 months?
#8 by markfd - March 12th, 2010 at 13:38
There is no indication at this time that Ranaudo’s injuryuis structural but we shall see when he comes back in about a week. Once they get into the SEC schedule he would pitch more than 5 innings so I would not make a lot out of that, Centenary is not exactly a baseball juggernaut.
If Harper is our number one pick and he starts in the minors at 18, I do not expect to see him before he is 21.
#9 by peric - March 12th, 2010 at 13:55
I wonder if Norris rankings would have an effect on the draft? If he learns the defensive part of catching well he could end up being the highest ranked prospect on the Nats chart … possibly right up there in the top 10 overall. His offensive numbers were “nintendo” and right off the chart this early. With good defense in hand he becomes a much better Harper.
#10 by cjrugger - March 12th, 2010 at 14:07
I hope Norris, nor anybody else in the organization affects the pick. You have to take best available, and deal with it later (god forbid we have 2 young, power hitting catchers)
ps. what a useless post from Sheinin today
#11 by Marcus - March 12th, 2010 at 15:33
I think Harper’s bonus demands are going to have a big influence on where he is eventually drafted. But w/ Rizzo and considering his handling of the Strasburg negotiations. I have confidence that if we pick him we’ll get a deal done.
But if we don’t pick him I’d be okay with Drafting Taillon number 1 overall. His upside is much higher than McGuire’s and I think with the number 1 overall pick we need to get an impact player in the organization. Taillon and Harper are the only two high impact players I see in the draft. Hopefully our track record of developing HS pitchers will improve under Rizzo.
#12 by WallyBall - March 12th, 2010 at 15:39
I think that Harper is pulling away from the field so far. A 17 yr old slugging 1.300 for the #1 JuCo with a wood bat? Seems pretty impressive. That is a bat that should project anywhere, so I wouldn’t get too concerned about position at this stage. Try him at catcher until he shos he can’t handle it.
Small sample size so he may fall off, but I think that there should be less debate right now, not more. And I think that Rizzo likes big names and isn’t shy about Boras.
If Harper falls away for some reason, I like Taillon. Prep pitchers get scouted immensely these days, and are becoming a little more reliable. Porcello turned out ok. And although Rizzo likes college kids, don’t forget that Roy Clark is here now, and he is a big HS guy.
#13 by BinM - March 12th, 2010 at 23:06
The month of May will give us all a better overall picture, but if I had to make the choice right now, the pecking order would be 1)Harper, 2)McGuire, 3)Taillon, 4)Brentz.
Come June, I think Rizzo & Co. should go ‘chalk’ & select the best player available; The team can work out where he’ll fit once he’s signed.
#14 by BinM - March 12th, 2010 at 23:18
Off topic, but I’m taking a stab at the season opening SP’s for AAA->A levels.
SYR= Mock, Martin, Stammen, Martis, Balester. HAR = Arnesen, Atilano, Mandel, Myers, Milone. POT = Strasburg, Thompson, Br. Peacock, Frias, Atwood. HAG = Jaime, Lehman, Clegg, Demny, Holder.
If Jaime has continuing problems with his elbow, bump McGeary into the HAG rotation.
#15 by RD - March 13th, 2010 at 00:51
I don’t get the fuss about Harpers future position. It doesn’t matter. He rakes. Even if all he does is play first, he will still be worth it.
How long did Michael Barrett catch before we drafted him?
How long did Buster Posey catch at Florida St before the Giants took him?
Harper has more experience than either at the catcher position. If anything Ill take as little stress on the knees possible at draft time.
He’s a kid that lives baseball. He develop just fine defensively once he’s here.
As for outgrowing the spot … How big is Wieters? Harpers not going to get any bigger than him and if he carries such hype why can’t Harper stay there.
Harper better be the pick. And he will be a catcher. Well figure out who stays at the spot long haul when it effects the big club.
#16 by peric - March 13th, 2010 at 12:39
I’m still thinking that Riggleman is Mr. Obivous … maybe too much so … based on his choices for the IntraSquad games:
SYR: Martin, Thompson, Atilano, Balester, Martis, and Battista with Kown as starter/long relief
Harrisburg: Olsen (rehab), Wang (rehab), JZimm (rehab) Arneson, Mandel, Meyers, Milone?
Potomac: Strasburg, Karns, Holder, Carr, Atwood
#17 by peric - March 13th, 2010 at 12:41
Harper may be the better pick but if Norris defense improves and his offense continues to blow everyone away with nintendo numbers Harper won’t have a position.
#18 by peric - March 13th, 2010 at 12:42
In other words I think you see Chico, Stammen, and Mock go north with the 25.
#19 by estuartj - March 13th, 2010 at 18:50
No freakin’ way does Harper spend 3 years in the minors. If you try to sign him to a contract that would reasonably allow that he’ll be playing in college next year and we are drafting 1A in ‘11.
I do NOT think he makes the bigs as a catcher, it takes too long to develop the skills necessary to work behind the plate, thus he’s likely to come up as a corner infielder or outfielder.
The biggest IF is what is going on with draft pick hard slotting negotiations? If Boras isn’t worried about having Harper be stuck with a signing bonus dictated by MLB in 11 or 12 there is very little monetary incentive to sign now instead of waiting for the market to improve, so baring a development on those negotiations Boras is going to come at you with a number he thinks fits with a projected market value several years ahead of what anyone else will be using in ‘10.
#20 by RD - March 13th, 2010 at 20:24
It’s hilarious to say that Harper won’t have a position, on the huge assumption that Norris remains at catcher.
Outside of Zimmerman(and Norris, if you are assuming he lives up to his potential), what spots in the lineup are filled long term? Those two are about it. Nyjer Morgan played re ally well, but he’ll be 30 soon and who knows if he can keep that level of play. Let’s assume he is a fixture though for another 5 years. That’s 3. Let’s even assume that Desmond and Espinosa land the middle infield spots. That’s 5.
That leaves first, and both corner outfield spots. If Harper is as legit as they say, he by FAR trumps what Marrero and Burgess provide. Harper is the best athlete of the trio, has the best speed, the best bat … You can put Marrero at first, Harper in left, and Burgess in right.
To say there’s no spot for Harper is ridiculous. This team needs a lot of help with the bat. He can play 5 positions at a high level(catcher, first, third, and corner outfield spots). He would fit on ANY team, none moreso than the Nationals.
#21 by Jake - March 13th, 2010 at 22:53
Guys – Do you think that if the Nats selected Bryce Harper with the no. 1 overall pick, would we try and pick Bryan Harper in one of the later rounds to be with Bryce and sort of be his mentor throughout the minor leagues?
#22 by Jake - March 13th, 2010 at 22:56
And does anyone know why Juan Jaime hasn’t thrown in a spring game yet?
#23 by Rich - March 13th, 2010 at 23:13
Jake,
Juan Jaime has elbow pains and as a result they haven’t let him pitch. Let me find the link where I saw that…
#24 by Rich - March 13th, 2010 at 23:14
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/03/stephen_strasburg_in_washingto.html?wprss=nationalsjournal
And one more note: Juan Jaime has yet to pitch this spring in a game, and the Nationals have shut him down from throwing at all over the next couple of days because he is experiencing elbow tendinitis. Last year in Class A, Jaime struck out 12.3 batters per nine innings and had a 2.10 ERA in 14 games, 12 of which he started.
#25 by Jake - March 14th, 2010 at 12:07
Thanks a lot Rich.
#26 by estuartj - March 14th, 2010 at 12:16
Harper got tossed from game 2 yesterday, apparently for taunting. @csncoyotes and @teemcee have different takes on the why and how serious it was (one take was that he had to be restrained by coaches to get him into the clubhouse.
Regardless I think the term “Character Issues” will gat more play this week.
#27 by Sue Dinem - March 14th, 2010 at 13:26
Unfortunately, he’s also been compared to Josh Hamilton both in terms of talent and temperament. Take a look at how SI profiled Hamilton ten years before they profiled Harper: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1015903/index.htm