(Note: Brian has been gracious to allow me to continue to post here and there about nat-worthy topics).
With the high school seasons starting now that its late February (remember DC folks; not everyone in the country got 4 feet of snow) and the college seasons 2-3 weeks in, lets take a look at some of the big names in the draft. I’ll talk about at least Harper, Taillon, Renaudo, Renden and McGuire.
While lots of pundits and readers already believe Bryce Harper is the presumptive #1 overall pick for the Nats, a lot can happen between now and June. Harper might tail off badly, get hurt, decided he wants more money than Strasburg, etc. So lets take a look at the top 4-5 names on most scouts minds. This is the first in a series of articles focusing on the top draft prospects that the Nationals might be considering.
Jameson Taillon is RHP from The Woodlands High School in The Woodlands, TX (near Houston). This big high school righty already has a big league body (6′6″ 225) and his fastball is already is “sitting” in the 95-97 range. Wow. Imagine how much better this guy can get if he continues to grow and gain strength on what is already a 70-75 fastball. (Here’s Keith Law’s latest scouting post talking about Taillon, dated 2/26/10, and Jason Churchill’s latest scouting post dated 2/24/10, both ESPN insider only). He seems like the next in a series of hard throwing big Texas kids along the lines of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Josh Beckett or Huston Street. He’s verbally committed to Rice but there seems little chance he passes up on a major signing bonus.
Taillon’s problem: no right-handed prep pitcher have ever gone #1 overall, and the two lefty prep pitchers that did go #1 overall (David Clyde in 1973 and Brien Taylor in 1991) didn’t really turn out that great. Clyde’s story is rather infamous; Texas took him out of a local HS #1 overall in 1973 and he was pitching for the team by late June. Despite a fantastic debut he struggled (who wouldn’t with zero minor league time?) and made his last major league start when he was 24. Tayler was even more infamous; signing with the Yankees after showing an upper 90s fastball in highschool and then destroying his left shoulder in a bar fight two years later.
Truth is, prep players are huge gambles no matter how much upside they have or how level headed they may be. If you look at the Nationals’ HS draft picks over the past 4-5 years only one is really showing major promise (Derek Norris). The likes of Hood, Burgess, Marrero, Englund, King, Willems, McGeary and Smoker have all struggled and disappointed, contributing to the lower rankings of our overall farm system right now.
That being said, in modern baseball circles a guy like Taillon has already done enough traveling and pitching in various competitions that one could argue that he is as prepared for professional baseball as any college guy. Taillon has been on all-USA teams for years, was the leader of the under-18 team that won the World Championships down in Venezuela and has so many opportunities to pitch and compete in these “showcases” that he had to turn some down in order to stay eligible for his high school academically.
Taillon features very high on most draft boards (most have him 2-3, some have him #1 over Harper), but I cannot see the Nats taking him over Harper at this point. Rizzo generally wants more polished, quicker to the majors players (read, College guys). The Nats are now suddenly full of pitching prospects after 2009’s arm-heavy draft. Some team just below us in the 2010 draft will take Taillon and possibly have the next Rick Porcello on their hands. Possibly a team like Baltimore (drafting #3) since Pittsburgh seems to like college players as well.
What does NatsFarm think?
#1 by Positively Half St. - February 28th, 2010 at 11:26
I want Harper to dominate so completely that there really is no choice but to take him.
#2 by peric - February 28th, 2010 at 11:54
I think they need more pitching. They have Norris. They could go out and sign (and that ostensibly is being “cheap”) Jose Julio Ruiz who is likely a far better athlete than Harper.
Pitching is a different story. I’d be willing to be its pitching, pitching, and more pitching until, come or high water, Rizzo fixes the rotation and finally comes up with top rung pitching staff.
#3 by Todd - February 28th, 2010 at 12:56
True, you can never have too much pitching depth. However, the marquee Nats minor league teams (AA, high-A, low-A to a degree) have very very little hitting depth. You can basically count our top-5 draft picks on these three teams on one hand (Marrero, Burgess, Espinosa, Norris, and Souza). I know that draft round doesn’t necessarily equate with talent as it develops but the point is that we need to focus on developing hitters.
Take a look at the Phillies roster that won the WS in 08 and made it back in 09. The core of their hitters? All home grown. Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell and Victorino (who was a rule-5 guy). The path to modern success is less about signing FA and more about player development. Even the Yankees and Red Sox are embracing this now. Cubs and Mets; not so much, which might explain their futility lately.
#4 by Sue Dinem - February 28th, 2010 at 14:37
The problem with drafting Harper is that he’s so young that even if all the one-handed typing is correct, he could still be a FA before he turns 23. Are people really prepared to pay a record bonus and not get his peak production years?
#5 by peric - February 28th, 2010 at 15:48
Noting that Boston especially is going strong for Jose Julio Ruiz. As Andrew Stebbins first suggested … wouldn’t that make more sense for the “frugal” nats? Here’s a guy that is likely to be far more than Harper? And he wants to go somewhere where he could move up fast. The Nationals, just for the reasons listed by Todd would seem to make the most sense?
Internationally one of their best rising stars looks to be Eury Perez? And he is so young he has yet to develop power. Perhaps the key is better quality international signings? Although, it looks like they may included as part of the draft in the future, isn’t that a reason to be aggressive now while you still can?
#6 by Markfd - February 28th, 2010 at 16:39
Todd – While we do need homegrown position player depth in the minors some of the players you mentioned do not really have a position yet and that is why they are still in the low minors (Marrero was a 3B in HS, tried the OF and is still remedial in his 1B defense; Norris can hit but is he a good defensive catcher or is he a future 1B?; Souza has played both SS and 3B over three seasons and is not particularly good at either, perhaps we move him to 2B and give him a try there??). My point I guess is Harper is another case of a boy without a position, plus it would probably take him 5 years to make the majors, maybe longer if he makes multiple position changes. I say if his elbow injury is just fatigue and not anything more serious Anthony Ranaudo should be our choice out of LSU
#7 by Todd - February 28th, 2010 at 17:24
Markfd: understood on some of these position players not finding spots yet (especially with defensive-minded guys like Norris, Souza who need to learn their defensive craft as importantly as hitting)
But if these guys were hitting .375 in Hagerstown you can’t tell me they wouldn’t have been moved up and up by now. You find a position for a hot bat. If Marrero can’t cut it anywhere else except 1B, he needs to be hitting 25/yr in the low minors not in the mid teens. Hood, Burgess are all-OF; no guessing there.
For me Harper’s future position is simple to figure out: he could stay the same size he is and rocket through the minors as a catcher, but more likely he continues to grow, becomes too big for the position and becomes a right fielder. He’s perfect for RF; big arm, athletic enough from his previous positions.
Plus, I don’t think he’d take 5 years in the minors. His two comparable players in terms of hype and #1 overall HS talent are Griffey and A-Rod: both those guys spent almost the exact amount of time in the minors; one full season plus about 50 more games of seasoning. I could completely see him in the majors with 2 full seasons under his belt, if he continues his trend of competing well against guys 2-3 years older.
#8 by cjrugger - February 28th, 2010 at 21:47
markfd- When was it decided Harper doesn’t have a position? He will be given every chance to play catcher, and if he can’t he has the bat, arm and athleticism to be an outstanding RF
I’m not interested in taking a HS pitcher at #1 and unless Ranaudo comes back very strong, none of the college RHP’s are very intriguing to me.
Ps. Todd- In your opening paragraph do you mean Anthony Rendon? Unfortunately he isn’t eligible this year
#9 by markfd - February 28th, 2010 at 23:43
cj – Harper doesn’t even have an everyday position in JUCO, I believe he has already played OF, 3B and C, at 17 he should be focusing on one skill set and getting stronger as he grows.
#10 by Steve - March 1st, 2010 at 05:18
If and it is a big IF, Harper is the next Griffey or A-Rod than it is a no brainer. Player like that don’t cost teams money they make them money. He can’t be that much younger than a high school pitcher and franchise position players like Griffey and A-Rod don’t stay in the minors that long. Outside of the signing bonus management still has the upper hand in contract negotiations due to the threat of injury so he can either be signed long term or traded and trust me if he is a Griffey or A-Rod type let the bidding begin. Baseball the game is pitching, pitching, pitching but baseball the business is name recognition and watching the stars come out to play. People where I work who probably have never been to a baseball game ask me about Strasburg, and Harper would be an everyday player, its hard to buy that kind of publicity. So is he that good? I guess you have to ask yourself do I feel lucky?
#11 by Greg - March 1st, 2010 at 10:26
Will Southern Nevada be switching to metal bats when they start back up March 5th?
#12 by Todd Boss - March 1st, 2010 at 10:54
cjrugger: yes I meant Rendon. I was under the impression that he was eligible for 2010 draft. I guess I would have found that out when i went to research for his post :-)
markfd: I was listening to a Baseball America podcast about Harper’s switching around and its apparently because his juCo team already had established studs at his main positions (Catcher and RF). So, instead of forcing one of them to DH all the time Harper has been moving around to get playing time.
#13 by Todd Boss - March 1st, 2010 at 10:56
Greg: my understanding is that CSN’s league (The Scenic West Athletic Conference) is all-wood, all year.
#14 by sec231 - March 1st, 2010 at 11:48
I hate the mentality of “we already have now, let’s draft a different position” when you’re talking about a high first round pick. and especially the #1 pick.
at that level: PICK THE BEST PLAYER! you can work out position stuff later. if derrek norris turns out to be a serviceable major league catcher, say, a rick dempsey level player, do you want to not draft a guy that could turn out to be a great catcher, like mauer/irod, just because you already had a guy that could be a dempsey?
it’s a good problem to have two top players at a key position and to have to figure out what to do with one of them. it’s a bad problem to see someone else draft the guy you could have had (michael jordan) because you already had someone at his position (drexler) and end up with sam bowie? (and yes it’s basketball, but it translates well, imo).
#15 by Marcus - March 1st, 2010 at 12:50
Here’s a youtube video of Taillons latest start: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UabP0F6Mmk&feature=player_embedded
If Taillon more wants to get in here and start his Major League career than set records for Draft bonuses. Then I’d rather select him and spend money later on in the draft with our early 2nd and 3rd round picks. Instead of banking our whole draft on Harper due to his bonus demands.
Also I think we’ll be in a much better position to draft a impact position prospect in next years draft. Since we won’t be picking number 1 overall likely much latter in the top 10. The position prospects in this draft other than Harper aren’t worth the number 1 pick. Ranuando cieling doesn’t justify that high of a pick either.
#16 by jeff e. - March 2nd, 2010 at 13:30
harper is the karmic payback for missing weiters. i recall john patterson’s career. long lanky Texan beset with injuries. drafting is a crap shoot anyway you analyuze the rubic’s cube. that number 2 pick is always more interesting in the long run.