This Friday is the deadline for teams to protect players from the December Rule 5 draft by placing them on the 40-man roster.
Once again, here are the Rule 5 details (courtesy of wiki)
- Designed to prevent players from stockpiling too many younger players without a chance of competing for a spot in the majors
- Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization’s forty man roster and:
- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or
- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.
I have attempted to keep track of the R5 eligibles since the Nationals relocated to DC for the 2005 season on the DraftTrack.
A good rule of thumb is any player drafted out of high school in 2005 or earlier would be eligible for the R5 draft along with any player drafted out of college in 2006 or earlier.
Here is my best guess of a preliminary R5 eligible list:
HITTERS
| POS | Player | Acquired | Original | DOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTIL | Bynum, Seth | 04NDFA (MTL) | 04NDFA (MTL) | 12/19/1980 |
| OF | Daniel, Mike* | 05D (7-WAS) | 05D (7-WAS) | 8/17/1984 |
| OF | Davis, Leonard* | 04D (8-MTL) | 04D (8-MTL) | 12/24/1983 |
| OF | Feirmant, Charlie | 09minF/A | 03D (4-MIL) | 10/11/1985 |
| MIF | Heredia, Valerio# | 07minF/A | 04IFA (CHC) | 3/14/1986 |
| CA | Ivany, Devin | 04D (6-MTL) | 04D (6-MTL) | 7/27/1982 |
| UTIL | Jacobsen, Robby | 06D (22-WAS) | 06D (22-WAS) | 8/30/1984 |
| OF | Lopez, Yhonson* | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 10/27/1988 |
| OF | Lowrance, Marvin* | 04D (7-MTL) | 04D (7-MTL) | 7/16/1984 |
| MIF | Martinez, Michael# | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 9/16/1982 |
| UTIL | Nelson, Dan# | 08minF/A | 04D (13-STL) | 2/12/1984 |
| CA | Nichols, Patrick | 06D (16-WAS) | 06D (16-WAS) | 9/12/1984 |
| IF | Orr, Pete* | 07minF/A | 99NDFA (ATL) | 6/8/1979 |
| CIF | Pahuta, Tim* | 05D (18-WAS) | 05D (18-WAS) | 5/3/1983 |
| CA | Peacock, Brian | 04Ddfe (34-MTL) | 04Ddfe (34-MTL) | 8/26/1984 |
| OF | Plasencea, Francisco* | 04minF/A (WAS) | 00IFA (MIL) | 6/9/1984 |
| CA | Poppert, John | 04D (17-MTL) | 04D (17-MTL) | 4/14/1982 |
| CA | Rooney, Sean# | 06D (8-WAS) | 06D (8-WAS) | 4/12/1986 |
| CA | Solano, Jhonathan | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 8/12/1985 |
| OF | Valdez, Jesus | 08minF/A | 02IFA (CHC) | 11/2/1984 |
PITCHERS
| POS | Player | Acquired | Original | DOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | Arnesen, Erik | 06D (17-WAS) | 06D (17-WAS) | 3/19/1984 |
| SP | Carr, Adam | 06D (18-WAS) | 06D (18-WAS) | 4/1/1984 |
| RP | De La Rosa, Ruben | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 4/2/1987 |
| RP | Engles, Terrence | 04NDFA (MTL) | 04NDFA (MTL) | 11/12/1985 |
| RP | Estrada, Jesse | 09minF/A | 04D (31-CHC) | 10/27/1983 |
| RP | Fabian, Robinson | 09trd (COL) | 03IFA (COL) | 2/10/1986 |
| RP | Figuereo, Johan | 04IFA (MTL) | 04IFA (MTL) | 3/2/1986 |
| RP | Garcia, Luis | 09trd (LAD) | 04IFA (LAD) | 1/30/1987 |
| SP | Jaime, Juan | 04IFA (WAS) | 04IFA (WAS) | 8/2/1987 |
| RP | Kensing, Logan | 09Trd (FLA) | 03D (2-FLA) | 7/3/1982 |
| RP | Kimball, Cole | 06D (12-WAS) | 06D (12-WAS) | 8/1/1985 |
| RP | Leatherman, Dan | 08minF/A | 06NDFA (MIN) | 7/12/1985 |
| RP | Lugo, Chris | 04D (28-MTL) | 04D (28-MTL) | 11/10/1986 |
| RP | Martinez, Carlos | 04IFA (MTL) | 04IFA (MTL) | 3/30/1984 |
| RP | Matias, Randy | 04IFA (MTL) | 04IFA (MTL) | 9/19/1986 |
| RP | Novoa, Yunior* | 06minF/A | 02IFA (CWS) | 9/11/1984 |
| RP | Pena, Hassan | 06D (13-WAS) | 06D (13-WAS) | 3/25/1985 |
| RP | Peralta, Carlos | 07minF/A | 04IFA (TEX) | 7/29/1985 |
| RP | Perez, Julio | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 10/26/1987 |
| RP | Rodriguez, Osvaldo | 08minF/A | 03IFA (LAD) | 6/10/1984 |
| RP | Severino, Atahualpa* | 04IFA (MTL) | 04IFA (MTL) | 11/6/1984 |
| RP | Spradlin, Jack* | 05D (8-WAS) | 05D (8-WAS) | 9/23/1984 |
| RP | Tanco, Federico | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 4/15/1986 |
| RP | Taveras, Jose* | 05IFA (WAS) | 05IFA (WAS) | 11/10/1987 |
| SP | Thompson, Aaron* | 09trd (FLA) | 05D (1-FLA) | 2/28/1987 |
| RP | VanAllen, Cory* | 06D (5-WAS) | 06D (5-WAS) | 12/24/1984 |
| RP | Wilkie, Josh | 06NDFA (WAS) | 06NDFA (WAS) | 7/22/1984 |
| RP | Zinicola, Zech | 06D (6-WAS) | 06D (6-WAS) | 3/2/1985 |
I’m not 100% sure on the international free agents, but this is as good a jumping off point as anywhere.
The Nats are currently at 37/40 so the most they could protect would be three players. This has to be counterbalanced by having to consider having an open spot on the 40-man if they want to participate in the R5 draft (note: the Nats could always outright someone off of their 40-man roster if they wanted, someone like Zack Segovia or Jesse English).
With that thinking in mind, I would imagine the Nationals would realistically protect no more than two of the forty-eight players listed above and my pared down list would be the following ten guys:
- IF/OF Leonard Davis
- CA Jhonathan Solano
- CA Sean Rooney
- RHP Erik Arnesen
- RHP Luis Garcia
- RHP Juan Jaime
- LHP Yunior Novoa
- LHP Atahualpa Severino
- LHP Aaron Thompson
- RHP Josh Wilkie
Davis seems to have had his window close so I doubt he has a chance of protection. And, while the Nationals need catching depth at the higher levels, I doubt there is a concern a team will select either Rooney or Solano and keep them on the 25-man all season.
I have the same feeling about Arnesen, Garcia, Jaime, & Severino as I do the catchers. I don’t believe any team would use a 25-man spot on any of them. There is some upside there, but I believe the Nats realize there is little chance another MLB team will rush any of those guys to the majors (Arnesen being a possible exception).
That leaves … LHPs Aaron Thompson & Yunior Novoa along with RHP Josh Wilkie.
All three players have their own merit in protecting as potential members of the 2010 Nats bullpen (with Thompson still holding a shot in a future starter’s role).
But as I previously mentioned, I do not believe the Nationals will max out their 40-man roster by protecting all three arms. If you were to ask me who I would protect, it would be Thompson & Wilkie. While Novoa is an interesting guy, I’m going to bank that there will be other LH relief options on the market that would not have the same 25-man restrictions as a R5 guy would have.
Thompson, acquired from the Marlins for Nick Johnson, has some near term value as a long releiver out of the pen and potentially could grow into a back of the rotation starter for the Nationals later in 2010 or early in 2011.
As folks who frequent this site know, Wilkie is a favorite of mine. As an undrafted free agent in 2006, Wilkie has pitched his way into the prospect picture capped, to date, with a stint in the Arizona Fall League. I would hope the Nationals give Wilkie a shot as a RH option out of the pen in spring training.
This Friday we will know the answer.
#1 by Steveospeak - November 18th, 2009 at 13:00
I agree completely, Wilkie and and Thompson are the only ones that remotely deserve to be protected, out of fear of being picked. (Not to mention that without additions they probably have major roles on the ML team next year, YIKES). I will be interested to see who doesn’t get protected since we have the top pick in the Rule V. Hopefully we can find a diamond in the rough, to help out our weak farm system.
#2 by Basil - November 18th, 2009 at 13:53
I guess it’s obvious that they have to protect Thompson, but there’s a pretty high likelihood no harm would result if they did leave him unprotected. Starting pitchers don’t seem very popular choices in the Rule 5 (for obvious reasons), and, relatedly, starters don’t seem to latch on with the drafting team for the full season anyway. So it’s entirely possible Thompson would be offered back to the Nats.
Or we would lose the next Johan Santana.
#3 by Brian Oliver - November 18th, 2009 at 13:56
Basil – Very true.
As an aside, Josh Wilkie is to me as ? is to you?
#4 by Marc M - November 18th, 2009 at 14:00
Why isn’t Clint Everts on the list?
#5 by markfd - November 18th, 2009 at 14:00
Brian,
Thanks for the great insight. I agree with your assessment, Thompson being the lynchpin in the NJ trade and Wilkie’s assignment to the AFL show a Riz investment in them. I could see a team taking a run at Novoa or Zinicola.
#6 by Brian Oliver - November 18th, 2009 at 14:02
Marc M – Everts is a minor league free agent
#7 by Todd Boss - November 18th, 2009 at 14:05
Wilkie is definitely higher visibility now that he’s done well in the AFL; I agree with you on protecting Thompson and Wilkie. It does seem hard to believe though that some team would give up a 25-man roster spot for either.
Initially the only one I considered was Arneson, but that was before realizing Thompson was R5 eligible and before Wilkie was “introduced” to the other 29 teams in Arizona.
#8 by VladiHondo - November 18th, 2009 at 14:08
Didn’t Basil have a huge Man-crush on Darrell Rasner ??!!
#9 by Brian Oliver - November 18th, 2009 at 14:09
VH – Not Rasner
#10 by Basil - November 18th, 2009 at 14:41
Danny Rueckel was the man, and I don’t care to hear otherwise!
Though, Wilkie’s a GW guy right? I suppose I should root for him.
#11 by Sue Dinem - November 18th, 2009 at 15:12
Brian – Are all these guys basically in their final year of Nats’ control? In other words, this time next year, they’ll be FAs – might further guide the process of speculation, though I’d be hard-pressed to disagree with idea of Rizzo protecting the guys he’s already “spoken for.”
#12 by Pilchard - November 18th, 2009 at 17:53
Sue,
Perhaps, this goes without saying, but if any of that group gets put on the MLB roster they remain property of the Nats until they are released or until they gain MLB FA status.
As for the guys that don’t get taken in the Rule V draft, don’t get put on the MLB roster and stay Nats minor leaguers, they stay under the Nats control (subject to the Rule V draft) until they become 6 year minor league free agents.
#13 by Sue Dinem - November 18th, 2009 at 17:58
Let me rehprase, then: How much time is left for these players before they become six-year FAs?
#14 by natsfan01 - November 18th, 2009 at 18:09
Great post and I also agree with your assessment. Josh Wilkie is a DC guy and GWU grad- would be great to see him protected. My second choice would be either Thompson or Arneson.
#15 by Pilchard - November 18th, 2009 at 18:15
Pretty sure that any player aquired in 2005 or before will be a 6 year minor league FA next year.
2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010
Would be six minor league seasons. There are a few names on Brian’s list that were acquired in 2006 that I don’t think would be 6 year minor league FAs next year.
#16 by BinM - November 18th, 2009 at 18:22
Brian: Isn’t it true that there is a Major & Minor-league phase to the Rule-V draft, where players who served at say, Hi-A in 2009 can be claimed if they are promoted at least one level? Or is it all based on being added to the MLB 40-man?
#17 by Jake - November 18th, 2009 at 19:58
Brian- You said we will find out Friday. What is this Friday?
#18 by Brian Oliver - November 19th, 2009 at 09:29
Jake – Teams need to set their 40-man rosters this Friday
#19 by AlexVA - November 19th, 2009 at 14:19
Biran-As a minor league free agent, what flexibility does Everts have and/or what control do the Nats have over him?
As always, thanks for your work.
#20 by Brian Oliver - November 19th, 2009 at 14:37
Alex – Everts is free to sign with whatever team he wants (provided they have interest)