Nationals Farm Authority

I think there’s a better chance that the Nats don’t finish in last than this not happening.

His dad is an iron worker and whether he says it, knows Bryce can get a bonus so huge, he can retire instead of working that very hard job. He’s said Bryce’s career is very important.

Brian, this is a bit unrelated to this post. I was wondering if you knew if when Bud Selig “encourages” signing at slot, he is referring to the whole draft or just the earlier rounds like 1-10. It seems like part of the essence, so to say, of the draft is to be able to draft a guy like JP Ramirez in the later rounds when everyone has passed on him and give him a way above slot deal to sign him.

I think they’re going to have Derrick Rose take the GED for Bryce Harper.

A bold prediction–Boras will not blow the draft/slot system with Strasburg signing (I guess that’s two bold predictions).

Secondly forget about next year for a while. The “second season” trading frenzy will be upon us soon and the Vermont/GCL short seasons will open in approx. two weeks. Depending on what happens we may be saying “Harper who?” Also, this team is not last year’s version. It really is better. Thus, I believe it is one game/one week away from a 15-5 run (if the youngsters hold up). Also, fans who continouly hope for the number 1 pick tend to get the team they deserve (the 60s-70s cubs, the 90’s to now Pirates and (Wilbon notwithstand) the LA Clippers.

Assuming that Strasburg is really MLB-ready (and I’m not a scout but that seems reasonable), why don’t the Nats work out something creative, like a 7 year $64 million dollar deal. Buys out some of Strasburg’s arbitration years and one year of free agency (so, if he performs as expected, the Nats will save some money down the road), and still gives him the $50 million Boras wants. If they think that he needs a year of seasoning in the minors, maybe there is a way to make it 8 years at about the same rate. Of course, this idea gives the Nationals significant injury risk, but that risk should be insurable.

I think you are thinking about the fact that a major league deal means you go on the 40-man roster and start your options clock.

The regime is complicated, briefly summarized, a player who doesn’t get a major league deal can be controlled by the club for relatively long time. The player can be left off the 40-man roster until he needs to be Rule 5 protected. Once added to the 40-man roster, the player will have option years remaining, and can be sent to the minors. The player is typically under club control year to year for the first six years of actual MLB service time. In the pre-arbitration years, the player typically gets a small bump up from the minimum salkary in each yearly renewal. Arbitration can apply after three years (sometimes two+) of actual MLB service time. After arbitration applies, the player is renewed year to year in arbitration until free agency after year six. This can be avoided in the club enters into a deal like the Zimmerman contract.

My suggestion was basically to do the Zimmerman contract, but much earlier in the normal cycle (Zimmerman’s was not done until he was already eligible for arbitration). The idea is that Strasburg would get roughly $8-10 million per year (including amortized signing bonus) for the full length of the period rather than, in the first three years, less than $1 million and, in the arbitration and early free agency year(s), much larger numbers. (Using Zimmerman’s numbers, 3 million signing bouns, salary of .325, .4, .465 and 3.325 (they settled the arbitration case this year for that amount), then he entered into the new contract, but speculation was that arbitration would get him roughly 6 million next year and roughly 8-10 in his final year, then 12-15 in his first year of free agency.)

Looking at this laid out, maybe my initial numbers of 7 and 64 should have been more like 8 and 55, 7 and 50 or 6 and 35.

Harper Watch! Awesome.