The Nationals started out the draft selecting Stephen Strasburg. It was nice to officially hear that he was the choice. He’s going to be a tough sign who will likely take until the August 17th deadline (changed this year from August 15th).
With their second pick, they went with Stanford RHRP Drew Storen. It was a name we had heard floated around and as the evening wore on I have grown to like the pick more. From what Mike Rizzo said in his first interview after the selections, Storen will be a bullpen option who can realistically make the quick move to the Nats. If he signs early, as expected, Storen could very well be an option in the bullpen by late August. I think his selection has a slot bonus max feel to it.
The second round saw them take UC Berkeley 2B Jason Kobernus. I was on the phone when the selection was made so I did not get a chance to react to the pick. Here is MiLB’s scouting report
Kobernus is not the kind of elite college bat scouts might be looking for, but then again, that doesn’t really exist in this class. He’s got a real chance to be a prototypical No. 2 hitter. He’s a solid second baseman who really turns the double play well. He may not be that premium hitter, but he’s got some solid attributes that should have him off the board fairly early.
Drafting a college second baseman is questionable, but I’m somewhat intrigued by Kobernus. I do wonder how much of a role signability played with this pick.
With their final selection of day one, the Nationals made a choice that I don’t get. They selected U of GA RHSP Trevor Holder. Here is what PGCC’s scouting report, “fastball ranged from 87-93 mph, and he generally threw both his two-seamer and four-seamer for strikes. His slider was in the low- to mid-80s range, but the break was inconsistent. He maintained good arm speed on his change and created the deception desired, but struggled to locate it consistently.”
There is no question in my mind this is a signability pick, plain and simple. There were at least six to eight players selected after him that I would have rather seen chosen.
I am going to withhold final judgment until I see what happens on day two. If the Nationals use a bunch of their picks on guys who slid because of signability questions, the draft’s grade will improve. But if they continue down the cost-savings path, this is draft could become a lost opportunity.
With that in mind, I’ve scanned Baseball America and PGCC’s top 200 & 250 lists (respectively) and here are some names that would be nice to hear the Nationals look at on day two
- Yuba City (CA) HS CA Max Stassi
- South Carolina RHP Sam Dyson
- Zachary (LA) RHP Zack Von Rosenberg
- St. Thomas More (LA) HS RHP Brody Colvin
- Mauldin (SC) HS RHP Madison Younginer
- Forest (FL) HS RHP Keyvius Sampson
- Bishop Gorman (NV) HS Jeff Malm
- Kansas State RHP A.J. Morris
- Arizona RHP Jason Stoffel
- Alabama OF Kent Matthes
- Loyola Marymount OF Angelo Songco
- injured Troup County (GA) HS CA Luke Bailey
- Florida OF Matt Den Dekker
- American Heritage (FL) HS SS Deven Marrero
- Gulliver Prep (FL) HS Stephen Perez
Unfortunately, there are not any real McGeary types among that list.
#1 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - June 9th, 2009 at 23:26
And here is Nationals crosschecker Daric Ladnier: “To a man everybody [in the draft room] felt like this guy was going to be a quality starter. We’ve seen him up to 94 [mph], [with a] slider [and] change up. He’s around the zone.” <- per Nats Journal
#2 by Jeff E. - June 9th, 2009 at 23:41
Brian: does any one know what the Lerner cashbox is for the 2009 draft? would moving Nick and Austin contracts help in summer negotiating?
#3 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 23:48
I’d add Louis Coleman to that list.
#4 by RD - June 10th, 2009 at 00:21
The Holder pick just baffles me. I originally thought he was a closer after seeing he was a college senior, but thats not the case. After checking out the numbers and reading scouting reports, Im even more upset with the pick.
I was pissed at the Storen pick before I heard he was slated to remain in the bullpen. To me, that was the only possible reason he could have been graded out higher than a slew of other arms still on the board. Lets face it, the bullpen is the weakest part of the team right now and Storen can help out almost immediately. It’s not a blow your socks off pick like Matzek or Purke would have been, but he’s a guy who will make this team better very quickly so Ive come around on him.
Kobernus is a solid pick as well, although I question taking him as high as he went.
That Holder pick though … Absolutely says signability pick to me. He appears to have some what similar skills to Adrian Alaniz, except he didn’t perform as well. Alaniz went considerably lower.
I really hope they turn it around early tomorrow. There may not be any McGeary’s or JP Ramirez’s, but we can add some q uality talent.
Id love to see Dyson, Bailey, Marrero, and Broad selected tomorrow.
#5 by Josh - June 10th, 2009 at 04:54
FWIW I thought the Nationals did ok on Day 1 of the draft-I have them a grade of B/B+. I think out of every team the Nationals draft yielded the 12th best and the 5th best in the NL. (FYI I had the Royals having the best draft overall and the Rockies having the best in the NL).
#6 by Jay - June 10th, 2009 at 07:35
Here’s what doesn’t make sense about the Holder selection. It sounds like the Nats could have waited another round or more and still gotten him. And I find it hard to imagine that there weren’t equally “signable,” more highly rated players available at #81. The only conclusion I can draw is that the Nats actually liked Holder a lot more than BA and other scouts did. Here’s hoping their draft room looks like the Oakland A’s room that was depicted in Moneyball, chuckling at everyone else’s draft list and instead going after undervalued attributes.
#7 by VladiHondo - June 10th, 2009 at 08:12
Very dismayed with the concentration on college kids, screams “signability”. Too bad we’re now Old Moneyball, doing what the A’s/BoSox/BJays used to do but now know better. We’re already doing Closer by flavor of the week!
And lest anyone forgets, the Nats’ profit last year was over $40 million. So there is no need to move contracts to have an extra million to do a JP Ramirez deal.
Besides, didn’t the Lerners say they would reinvest all profits back into the team? Especially Latin America.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I kill myself.
#8 by cjrugger - June 10th, 2009 at 08:16
Wow, what a dissapointment. If that was Christmas day, I feel like I got a Ferrari (maybe) and a bunch of socks and underwear
I actually like Kobernus (predicted we would take him in the 3rd) but he was a bit of an overdraft, I”m ok with that tho.
Holder is a joke tho. Id be much less upset if Rizzo didn’t come out with that crap (I dont blame Rizzo btw, theres no way these were the guys he really wanted to pick).
But we still have a great opportunity. I wanted Van Rosenberg at #50, so would love him now. Also Luke Bailey would be a great overslot pick (1st round talent), or Perez. Come on, Ive got faith
#9 by Marcus - June 10th, 2009 at 08:30
The only bad pick I see from yesterday is the Holder pick. But maybe our scouts have unearthed a gem atleast I hope so.
In reality Strasburg is going to cost as much if not more than some teams whole draft so signability with the rest of our picks is a big deal whether us as fans like it or not.
College Heavy seems to me a balancing of the system and a shift in philosphy. Some of these college guys can come in where some of our high cieling HS prospects have failed and fill that void right away in the minors. Rizzo’s been labeled as liking College talent while Bowden always went for the high cieling HS guys.
Plus the draft seems to actually have a plan. Team has no legit bull pen prospects plus or MI prospects and we’ve addressed both in Day 1. Plus have added one of the best prospects in baseball.
#10 by Jeff E. - June 10th, 2009 at 08:51
Question outside the chalk lines. How is it that in prior years pitching coordinators and their charges can slot guys into bullpen roles ( aka- Clint Everts slid into bullpen) but as we see this year the late IP calvary is not adjusting to the roles and getting timely outs?? Lets hope a month or two or year will make a difference. Storen, Zincola,Villone ( future pitching coach?), M2, Bergmann…2010 pen choices?
#11 by Marc - June 10th, 2009 at 09:03
Marcus – I don’t disagree. But what irks me is that’s a different approach than what they said they would do. I don’t mind college-heavy, I don’t mind signability – I mind being fed a line of “we’re taking BPA” and then clearly not holding to that.
You say “draft seems to have a plan” – but I see “drafted for signability and need” – which both fly directly against BPA and everything Rizzo said he was about ahead of time.
As for the picks themselves, I dislike them in proportion to the distance they were taken away from Strasburg. Love SS, ambivalent about Storen, don’t like Kobernus and really don’t like Holder. They might be gems, but I bet we could have gotten at least one of them at least one full round lower and fit in another higher-ceiling guy.
#12 by Steve - June 10th, 2009 at 09:06
I think the Nats were looking for guys that make the organization better, not just on the filed. I found this on Holder:
“As a junior, Holder was considered the leader of the team both on the field and off as he was the model student athlete, succeeding on the field and in the classroom. He turned down an offer from t pro baseball, and returned to the same role as team leader in 2009.”
He has a 3.25 at UGA in risk management and insurance. Couple this pick with Storen from Stanford and I think you get a profile of a team looking to shed the DY, Dukes, and Milledge image. These are guys you’d want your daughter (or I suppose son in some states) to marry. We’ll see if it translates into wins in DC.
#13 by Wallyball - June 10th, 2009 at 09:14
Brian – I am heading out of town later today, so I wanted to make sure to thank you for providing all of this great information and a forum for us to dream (and moan!). It has been very enjoyable.
Waking up, here are my thoughts on yesterday. Still disappointed about passing on White – while Matzek or one of the other high ceiling preps would have been nice, I don’t think that I ever believed that they would take one, given the ramifications of not signing them. But White has no reason to go back to college, and should be signable for ‘Crow’ money – ie $3.5mish. It disappoints me that they weren’t willing to go that far. That being said, Storen is an ok pick for me, he just wasn’t the best available. He has a good chance to make the majors and be a MLB average arm for a while. If it works that way, the pick will be successful. I like the 2B. Holder seems puzzling, but upon reflection, I am going to cut Rizzo and team slack that they see him better than others did, rather than it being pure $$.
I would really like to see some intriguing picks today, especially leading off the 4th. Stassi would be an encouraging signal.
*and kudos to Dick for flagging Leake so early in the process, seems like he had that right (so while I don’t know Louis sampson that well, I’ll credit him and hope the Nats take him) and also for the poster who flagged Nick Franklin. Good calls.
#14 by Steve - June 10th, 2009 at 09:16
And, a little of the googles uncovered this story on Kobernus:
http://www.dailycal.org/article/105807/kobernus_embodied_cal_s_silent_mvp
The story’s theme is that this dude was the team leader in a very subdued way, not a “me” player. It appears to me, the Nats did not want any guys making any headlines off the field. The more I think about the apparent draft philosophy, the more I like it…
#15 by Jeff E. - June 10th, 2009 at 09:36
two picks in first round. the rest just farm ladder fill then look ahead to 2010 with another big bag of $$$$????
#16 by Dick - June 10th, 2009 at 09:40
I don’t see how Dyson gets drafted. He’s a draft-eligable sophomore and now that he has fallen, he almost has to return to school and try to become a top round pick next year.
Clearly, Rizzo is going for strike-throwers. White doesn’t qualify which is probably the main reason they didn’t go for him.
#17 by John - June 10th, 2009 at 09:45
One thing I’ll say is that Espinosa seemed like a bad pick last year. They have evaluators with a very good track record in there. After reading about these guys I’m liking these picks more. Let’s hope today goes well.
#18 by VladiHondo - June 10th, 2009 at 09:51
To restore some faith, I would like to see a HS arm picked, have read us linked to Von Rosenberg, read some on Younginer – I’d be happy with them. Any HS pick!
One more “fill a need” or “signability” pick will curdle my gut.
#19 by Ryan - June 10th, 2009 at 10:06
Overall thoughts from me:
1st round was an A+… Strasburg almost gets that grade himself, but Storen is going to be a darn good reliever for a long time. He is a good kid, with two plus to plus plus pitches and a great demeanor
2nd round was a B-B+… I watched Kobernus a lot last summer on the Cape, as he played on Cotuit with Storen. Very solidly built kid, with some pop in his bat and a plus arm, could handle 3B defensively no problem with his arm and feet but his bat is probably a bit light for 3B. My favorite thing about Kobernus is that he always seems to make the “big play” or provide a spark. He is the player that will get a 2 out hit to spark a rally, or make a big defensive play to end another team’s rally. He seems to make a big play and the right time. I can think of 4-5 examples of him doing this off the top of my head just last summer. Perhaps an overdraft but he will be a major leaguer for a long time. Think Ronnie Belliard with a better body and arm.
3rd round was an D- or F – Holder is a joke. If you are that desperate to go cheap, there are other more talented senior signs out there like Kent Matthes and L. Coleman. Terrible pick. And with Kyle Seager going with the next pick just makes it even worse in my eyes.
With some of the later picks today and tomorrow, here are a few players well outside BA’s top 200 that I would like us to take a chance on:
Jason Stidham FSU Stephen Cardullo FSU AJ Cesario UMD Mike Murphy UMD Nick Hernandez Tennessee Mark Brooks Bethune Cookman Hiram Burgos Bethune Cookman Alejandro Jimenez Bethune Cookman Romey Bracey Southern University Jarrett Maloy Southern University Jimmy Saris Georgetown U. Evan Crawford Indiana Jeremy Barnes Notre Dame
I am excited for today… lets hope they draft some tougher signs-
#20 by JCA - June 10th, 2009 at 10:26
Stassi several recent mock drafts had going to the Red Sox in round 1. Grab him. I don’t care if he catches.