For those who can’t get enough of scouting sites on the web, here is Baseball Beginnings. The most recent posting will be interesting to a certain NFA commenter favorite for #10.
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#1 by SlowPitch63 - June 5th, 2009 at 12:06
Thanks, Brian, that was kind of you. Although the report compares Strasburg to Leake, I would be happy to have both. It would be phenominal if we could add two long term members of the starting rotation with this year’s draft. I’m getting excited and, as always, thank you for feeding my addiction.
Let’s paly two!
#2 by Scot - June 5th, 2009 at 12:07
Thinking fan’s site. Nice presentation. Thanks Brian.
#3 by Wallyball - June 5th, 2009 at 12:29
Brian - what holds you back on Leake? Just velocity? I like him, not as much as Dick, maybe, but you seem to like him even less than that. For me, it probably is velocity that keeps him back from being even higher, but I would be fine with him at #10.
#4 by Brian Oliver - June 5th, 2009 at 12:46
It’s not that I don’t like Leake. I’d have no problem with the choice. In fact, it’s a nice counterbalance to Strasburg as the posting linked points out.
My hesitation is based more on the fact that the Nationals are going to make the signable choice and part of me would like to see them gamble on the guy with a bit more upside who is signable. I’d love a college bat there but aside from Grant Green (who doesn’t fit the signable criteria from a slot POV), there isn’t another guy there that I’m enamored with (meaning there won’t be a comparable guy there at #50)
I have not heard them linked to Leake so part of it is driven by not getting my expectations up on a guy they are not going to take.
#5 by Marcus - June 5th, 2009 at 12:52
Good article althought it seems slightly one sided. I’d love to get Leake at 10 but as Brian said we haven’t heard anything about the Nationals and him.
#6 by cjrugger - June 5th, 2009 at 13:02
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2009/268278.html
writeup about guys playing this weekend
#7 by Todd - June 5th, 2009 at 13:24
Here’s a crazy thought. We pass on Strasburg and avoid the signing circus act that would follow. We instead draft Ackley #1, draft Leake #10, spend the $10M or so it will take to get both signed (6.5 for Ackley, 3.5 for Leake) and move on.
We get a sure-r thing in an accomplished college power hitter that can slot into 1B very soon (allowing us to trade NJ now and NOT force Dunn to first). he also can play OF; 6′1″ 184, could be an answer in CF? And we get the 2nd most accomplished college starting pitcher in the draft class. Both guys might sign prior to deadline and get going.
Plus, we could give Boswell fodder for 10 more years of columns explaining why you don’t draft pitchers #1 overall, which he can roll out every time Strasburg loses a game or gets injured for Seattle.
Is this Heresy to speak of not drafting Strasburg?
Or, we package the #1 with Kearn’s and Dmitry Young’s expiring contract for Seattle’s #1 and EriK Bedard… oh wait, this isn’t the NBA. :-)
#8 by John - June 5th, 2009 at 13:36
Yes it’s heresy. :)
In all seriousness, to me it’s not even a question. Strasburg>>>>>> any two players in this draft. He has the chance to be the best pitcher of all time. You don’t pass on that talent.
#9 by cjrugger - June 5th, 2009 at 14:05
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=949
gibson is dropping, apparently his forearm has been a problem all year
And Todd its not heresy, but quite crazy
#10 by Brian Oliver - June 5th, 2009 at 14:08
Todd - I have considered it. It would be really interesting. But I would say Ackley + BPA regardless of $$$ at #10 + BPA regardless of $$$ at #50
#11 by Brian Oliver - June 5th, 2009 at 14:08
(and yes I know the Nats should do that regardless)
#12 by Wallyball - June 5th, 2009 at 14:14
Brian - thanks for the explanation. I have wondered why the Nats aren’t rumored to be on leake - have you heard any reasons for it? It sounds like you think these kinds of pre-draft rumors hold up well. I do remember them being linked to Detwiler and it turned out to be true - I can’t remember last year’s pre-draft rumors too well though. It seems odd that they would be interested in Jenkins, who seems like the same kind of pitcher just less polished or successful, and not Leake. What do you think about Arnett? I am intrigued by his velocity and stuff, and improvements this year.
Todd - I wouldn’t do it, but wouldn’t hate it either since Ackley has really moved into a good position, but it will never happen.
#13 by Pilchard - June 5th, 2009 at 14:30
Without even arguing the prospect evaluation discrepancy between Strasburg and the rest of the 2009 draft prospects, the Nats would get crucified publically if they passed on Strasburg, and no explanation would satisfy that criticism.
The fact is that the Nats organization has a massive credibility problem. To start to chip away at their pathetic reputation, they need to draft Strasburg and sign him. With that said, if the Nats were truly interested in setting a new course, they would draft Strasburg, and then the best prospect at #10 (Leake, Tate) regardless of their pereceived demands, and then do the same at #50 with Schleppers or whatever stud slipped to that point.
Realize that will not happen, but such a move would go miles toward proving, with action, that there is a plan.
#14 by mfeld - June 5th, 2009 at 14:46
If the Nats pass up the opportunity to have both Leake and Strasburg in our organization, my Nats jersey is going in the fireplace. Yes, I’m joking, but I have a feeling we’ll be talking about what could have been for years.
The only players I’d be content to see the Nats take over Leake would be Matzek, Scheppers or Crow and those 3 are probably not likely. Anyone else in my opinion would be epic failure. Especially if it’s a closer that the Nats could’ve picked at 50.
Strasburg + Leake = NL Pennant
#15 by Mike - June 5th, 2009 at 15:25
There is a very plausible strategy that I believe the Nats are seriously considering. They draft Strasburg #1 and set a realistic budget for his signing that will not be prohibitive–say 5 years for 12-15 million. They do not move from this position and reduce the money by 1 million every 2 weeks after June 30. If Strasburg signs, fine. If he does not sign, the Nats will receive pick 1A in next years draft. This would give them the 1st. and 2nd. pick in next year’s draft, which will be a very deep draft, especially if the young high school catcher is available. This year they use the 10th pick on the very best player available and make sure they sign him. They use any additional budgeted draft money to draft and sign several above slot players that fall in the draft due to money issues.
#16 by Dick - June 5th, 2009 at 15:46
Why does anyone think Leake would require an over-slot bonus to sign at #10? Until the last few days, no one has even had him whiffing the top 10. He should be thrilled to get around $2 million.
I have to admit that Ackley and Leake would be intriguing. Regarding them getting crucified publicly, that already happens daily. The only way to fix it is not to draft Strasburg, but to win. If they draft and sign Strasburg and he turns out to be mortal and they continue to lose, they will still get crucified. If Rizzo thinks Ackley will be a better long-term pick than Strasburg, he should take him, assuming the Lerner’s buy off on it. The Lerner’s certainly don’t seem to worry much about what people say about them.
#17 by Section 204 Row H Seat 7 - June 5th, 2009 at 15:56
Kwame Brown vs Paul Gasol (sp?). Strasburg v. Ackerly. Nuf said.
#18 by Brian Oliver - June 5th, 2009 at 16:20
Dick - I don’t believe that Leake will ask for/get an above slot deal. My thoughts on Leake are based on the fact I have heard nothing linking Leake to the Nationals.
S204 - Really not a fair comp.
#19 by Moe Greene - June 5th, 2009 at 16:56
Remeber when the Texans selected Mario Williams over Reggie Bush and shocked the world?
How’d that turn out?
#20 by Steve Robinson - June 5th, 2009 at 17:04
Best Catcher out there is from Lindenwood University Sr. Zane Chavez. Finish .439, 46 rbi’s .750 slg%. NAIA #35. Threwout 22, but team had 97 errors! Strong LH Hitter, RH Throw. 19th pick in 2005 to Royals.
#21 by Wallyball - June 5th, 2009 at 20:03
Here is the first mention of the Nats possibly on Leake. From ESPN’s MLB Draft blog (Churchill). Doesn’t sound like anyone really has a clue yet, does it?
Another spot that could send the draft in an unexpected direction is Washington at No. 10. The Nationals will be spending a boatload to sign Strasburg, but have to sign their No. 10 choice or lose the pick since that selection was a direct compensatory choice received for not signing Crow last year.
They had Stanford right-hander Drew Storen in for a workout this week, and are one of a few clubs that like him as a starting pitcher. If Storen were to be taken off the board at 10, clubs such as Oakland, Cleveland and Arizona are probably jumping for joy, because it could mean Arizona State right-hander Mike Leake, among other possibilities, reaches them as a result of the ripple caused by the Nats pick.
The Nationals are also on Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson, Leake, North Carolina RHP Alex White and Kennesaw State RHP Chad Jenkins, whom Keith Law has them taking in his latest mock.
#22 by Cole - June 5th, 2009 at 21:45
BA’s 3.0- still depressing:
NATIONALS. Who else? Projected Pick: STEPHEN STRASBURG.
MARINERS. Projected Pick: DUSTIN ACKLEY.
PADRES.
Projected Pick: DONAVAN TATE.
Projected Pick: AARON CROW.
Projected Pick: ZACK WHEELER.
Projected Pick: TYLER MATZEK.
Projected Pick: MIKE MINOR.
Projected Pick: KYLE GIBSON.
TIGERS. Projected Pick: JACOB TURNER.
NATIONALS. This pick isn’t protected by compensation, so Washington will make sure to select a guy it can sign. The top two candidates are Kennesaw State righthander Chad Jenkins and Stanford righthander Drew Storen, with Texas high school outfielder Everett Williams a dark horse.
Projected Pick: CHAD JENKINS.
#23 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - June 6th, 2009 at 08:01
Cole I would not be depressed to get any of those players. Are they passing on a better player? Maybe, but they aren’t reaching a lot and the money they might save could be passed down to sign their later selections. I’m not saying it’s the ideal strategy but when you have two top 10 picks you need to compromise. It would have been a lot cheaper to give Crow the $500,000 last year.
#24 by sportsfan882 - June 6th, 2009 at 11:58
Is Leake pitching against Clemson tonight?
#25 by John - June 6th, 2009 at 14:16
Yes. Leake should starting tonight and Spence tomorrow according to an article I read.
#26 by Scot - June 6th, 2009 at 18:16
Baseball America: Chad Jenkins - I’d like to have him at #10. “A mid-80-s guy in HS, Jenkins had a soft body but his arm worked well, and he has improved significantly in college. He had a strong sophomore season, first with Kennesaw State (5-5, 3.96), then in the Great Lakes League. Jenkins has firmed up his still soft body. and his velocity has caught up with his ability to throw strikes. He now has two or three plus pitches at times with good command, giving him serious helium. Jenkins has a great feel for pitching, and now sits at 90-93 mph with his hard sinker and reaches back for 96 mph with a four-seamer at times. His slider gives him a second plus pitch. His change up is average. Jenkins repeats his deliver, and scouts see his big 6-foot-4, 225-pound body as a DURABLE asset, particularly if he keeps getting in better shape. He resembles Phillies righthander Joe Blanton, with better command, and should go in the first twenty picks.
#27 by Wallyball - June 6th, 2009 at 19:23
Gibson Has Stress Fracture
Posted Jun. 6, 2009 12:20 pm by Jim Callis Filed under: College, Draft Dope
Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson, the No. 4 prospect on BA’s Top 200 Draft Prospects list, has a stress fracture in his right forearm and will be shut down for six weeks. This obviously will affect him in Tuesday’s draft, when he was projected to go in the top half of the first round.
Gibson last pitched on May 30 against Monmouth in the NCAA regionals. Though he pitched eight shutout innings for the victory, his fastball sat at 83-86 mph. After the game he spoke of having forearm tightness, which often is a precursor to torn elbow ligaments and Tommy John surgery.
The recovery time for the stress fracture should be much quicker than it would have been for reconstructive elbow surgery. Gibson should be able to throw for the team that drafts him before the Aug. 15 signing deadline.
#28 by Bill Wanner - June 6th, 2009 at 20:25
Just another reason to think about Strasberg! cant miss kid!!!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_White_(minor_league_pitcher)
#29 by Bill Wanner - June 6th, 2009 at 20:25
Just another reason to think about Strasberg! cant miss kid!!!!then BUST!!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_White_(minor_league_pitcher)
#30 by Cole - June 6th, 2009 at 22:19
Scott’s report from Jenkins was the most encouraging that I’ve seen of Jenkins. On the other hand, White had an excellent start tonight.
#31 by Jeff E. - June 7th, 2009 at 13:10
I wonder after watching Rice yesterday where Seastrunk falls in the rounds. nice LH bat, infielder, mound arm in the 90s….hmmm. Now that Rich Gale is up the ladder as a pitching coach- YOU THINK- his son is drafted again???