ESPN’s draft expert (and noted Jim Bowden/Washington critic) Keith Law has posted his first Mock Draft (first round only) for the upcoming MLB Draft. The full link itself is Insider-only access and thus I’m not sure exactly how much I can post, but I’ll put who he has for the Nationals at #1 and #10: RHP Steven Strasburg and U Missouri’s RHP Kyle Gibson.
His comments on both are notable: he made a Uniform Malfunction joke for Strasburg, and explains the Gibson pick as being very signable at slot. He believes Gibson may sign right away and get moving. Gibson sports a fastball between 89-93 with good command and control, decent delta between his fastball and change/slider, and projects to be a slightly above average pitcher in the majors.
Gibson’s season stats are on U Missouri’s official site but summarized here: 10-3, 3.47 era, 1.08whip in 15 apperances (14 starts). 123 Ks and 18 walks in 98 2/3s innings. Gibson’s #23 ranked Missouri team is the #2 seed in the Oxford, Mississippi Regional this weekend and face Western Kentucky in the opener followed by a probable matchup with #12 Ole Miss before the regional is complete.
#1 by Andrew F. - May 27th, 2009 at 13:51
My buddy Gavin from Nats Nation pointed out to me that KLaw is not a big Gibson guy at all. He’s said that Gibson is a reach anywhere before 10. Me, I’d like Gibson there.
The trends with these mocks that bears watching (to me) is the slide of Grant Green. I’m beginning to think that he might be there at 10. Do you take Green over Gibson or another of the college arms?
Law has HWSRN going #3.
#2 by mfeld - May 27th, 2009 at 13:57
Why would you pick a player in the top 10 if he projects as having a ceiling of an average mlb pitcher? There has to be someone that is more projectable available at the 10 spot who is signable.
Personally, I would rather take Mike Leake at that spot, who reportedly has excellent command, and can also pitch in that 89-93 range. The only reason Leake is rated lower is because he is 6 ft and not 6 ft 5. Height is way overrated for a pitcher.
#3 by cjrugger - May 27th, 2009 at 14:00
I would be very happy with that pairing, not AS happy as Shelby Miller tho
Green was not available in this scenario btw
#4 by cjrugger - May 27th, 2009 at 14:01
Height plays a large role in projection, as many think Gibson will deveop more velocity over time
#5 by Wallyball - May 27th, 2009 at 14:53
Law actually rates Leake higher than Gibson, albeit only by 1 slot (11-12). I thought that it was interesting that Law did not mention Leake as someone that the Nats were in on. I don’t know what to make of Green. To me, it is all about whether he can stay at SS, and with so many conflicting views on that, I don’t know what think.
Another trend is the rise of the prep pitcher. Miller, Matzek, Wheeler, Turner and maybe Purke could be Top 10 picks. I like Wheeler the best of this group.
I think that, based just on the publicly available scouting reports, their choice at 10 will look like it should be one of the prep pitchers, or a college arm like White or Gibson or Leake. But most likely, they will surprise us with someone else. I think that is what Rizzo was hinting at the other day when he said that they were going to take their highest rated guy, even if that guy isn’t rated as highly by others.
#6 by SlowPitch63 - May 27th, 2009 at 14:59
I agree with mfeld and would like Leake.
Let’s play two!
#7 by Deacon Drake - May 27th, 2009 at 15:12
With Strasburg likely to suck up all the petty cash, the Nats are probably best suited looking for a guaranteed contributor at slot. If Gibson can sneak onto the roster this fall, all the better. But with all the 1st round pitching busts, the moneyball approach probably works best here.
#8 by Todd - May 27th, 2009 at 15:47
I’ve done a bit of analysis of Gibson’s season. As mentioned above, in 14 starts he was 10-3. He really only had two bad appearances all season (a 2ip 7ER loss at Oklahoma State and getting touched for 9hits and 7ER in a win over Texas Tech at home). He had 5 complete games and his pitch counts weren’t that bad along the way.
He pitched against tough competition all year and won a bunch of close games when his team only scored him 2-3 runs. I think he’s better than he’s getting credit for.
#9 by Jeff E. - May 27th, 2009 at 16:56
Is not Keith Law one of the Moneyball world Breck boys??? we all know that Moneyball was just hedging numbers off Wall Street…Go for Crowe!
#10 by Dick - May 27th, 2009 at 16:56
Todd, as Leake’s #1 fan at this site, I would note that Gibson is very good! I saw something yesterday saying how much better the Big 12 was this year compared to the Pac-10.
If the Nats get Strasburg and either Leake or Gibson, they should really be on to something. The thing that is hard to tell about the two is that Gibson’s numbers are very, very good. Leake’s, on the other hand, are arguably better than Strasburg’s, particularly if you value WHIP more than raw strikeouts.
At the end of the day, neither Strasburg, Gibson nor Leake walk folks. Gibson strikes out more than Leake but Leake is harder to hit. I don’t know about others out there, but as a Nationals fan, I’ve seen enough walks to last a lifetime already this season. If they get two pitchers who throw strikes, I’ll be thrilled.
#11 by Jeff E. - May 27th, 2009 at 16:58
Andrew F. Santa Monica Blvd. has you thinking faster than some of us! Good guess on Green. somebody for Milone and Spradlin to horse around with in camp next March!
#12 by Josh - May 27th, 2009 at 21:49
I like Gibson more than K.Law and think the pirates will take him at 4. I see the nats taking either Scheppers or Shelby Miller at 10. I don’t see Green falling past 6 to the Giants.
#13 by R-Zim#11 (Angry Dan) - May 28th, 2009 at 11:06
Todd, you forgot to put expert in quotes when referring to KLaw. He is the worst analyst at ESPN.
#14 by Todd - May 28th, 2009 at 11:09
For those who think Leake is a better prospect; ive looked at his starts this year and found that by and large he faced far inferior competition than Gibson. His end-of-year line looks fantastic (14-1 1.24 era, 0.73 whip) but consider this: - he only faced 2 top25 teams all year (going 1-1 against them) - only 4 of his 14 starts went against NCAA tourney teams (3-1 in those games).
I think when talking about Gibson’s 9/14 starts coming against tourney teams, you have to admit the Pac10 competition flattered Leake somewhat. I think this is why some project him further down the first round.
Frankly, If Scheppers is available at 10 that’s a no brainer pick. He’s got nowhere to go except pro ball, has no leverage to return to college, and is incentivised to sign quickly and get going. A first round of Strasburg and Scheppers would almost certainly yield 2/5s of our rotation in 2010.
#15 by Ryan - May 28th, 2009 at 11:35
Todd-
Totally agree with you… though I would be floored if the O’s didn’t take Scheppers at #5…. they drafted him out of HS (if memory serves) and Scheppers probably moves as quickly as any pitcher outside Strasburg (maybe HWSRN)-
Also, great point about Leake’s competition. He is awesome but the Pac-10 was pathetic this year, both hitting and pitching wise.