Baseball America has a subscription-based 2009 draft update. It’s a really good read for those with access, basically restating how after Strasburg, there is a huge gap and the difference between the next group of guys is open to debate.
Top five college/independent league arms (non-Strasburg edition)
- Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson
- UNC RHP Alex White
- Fort Worth Cats RHP Aaron Crow
- Arizona St RHP Mike Leake
- Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor
Top five college bats
- USC SS Grant Green
- UNC 1B Dustin Ackley
- California OF Brett Jackson
- Georgia 1B Rich Poythress
- LSU OF Jared Mitchell
Top five high school arms
- Capistrano Valley (CA) HS LHP Tyler Matzek
- Brownswood (TX) HS RHP Shelby Miller
- Klein (TX) HS LHP Matt Purke
- Westminster Christian Academey (MO) RHP Jacob Turner
- Santa Monica (CA) HS LHP Tyler Skaggs
Top five high school bats
- Carterville (GA) HS OF Donavan Tate
- Troup (GA) HS CA Luke Bailey
- McCallaum (TX) HS OF Everett Williams
- Bishop Verot (FL) HS 3B Bobby Borchering
- Rocky Mount (NC) HS OF Brian Goodwin
The college arms all ranked in the top fourteen overall players. The fifth ranked college bat was seventeenth overall. Skaggs was the nineteenth rated overall prospect. The weakest part is the high school bats, after Tate (6th overall), the next HS bats ranked 18th, 23rd, 30th, and 31st overall.
#1 by cjrugger - April 17th, 2009 at 09:01
Shelby Miller baby. 6′4 205 throwing 97
http://www.nomaas.org/draft/?tag=shelby-miller
Lane Meyer: Is it safe to say that if you got taken high in the 1st round, or got taken later and offered a nice contract, you’d consider signing?
Shelby Miller: Yes, sir, for sure
sounds like a good kid
#2 by Steveo - April 17th, 2009 at 10:01
One thing the Nats have to hope is that Crow goes 2-9 pushing down another prospect to 10. I’d prefer them to not take a HS guy just b/c our farm system is so bad but it may play out that an arm like Miller or Purke are right there.
#3 by Josh - April 17th, 2009 at 10:11
Poythress is tearing it up right now. Would he be a good pick at #10, or is that too high?
#4 by Brian Oliver - April 17th, 2009 at 10:11
My take is that there are realistically three HS guys who warrant top 10 consideration (Matzek, Miller, and Tate). After that, the water muddies considerably. I can see the arguments for Purke, Turner, or Bailey, but I don’t see a huge talent gap between those three and guys like Leake or Poythress.
#5 by Brian Oliver - April 17th, 2009 at 10:15
First basemen early in a draft is always open to debate. The thing with Poythress is that I think his ceiling is limited. He could turn into a solid 1B but not necessarily a star. This is the time when the debate between HS and college comes into the equation. A guy like Luke Bailey has a higher ceiling than Poythress but at the same time the risk of his downside is much greater than an established college player.
I’d probably go with Bailey over Poythress at #10 if that was the either/or.
#6 by Pilchard - April 17th, 2009 at 10:36
Probably not relevant, but did the Nats draft someone late in the 2008 draft from Jacob Turner’s HS? If so, the organization’s and the area scout’s familiarity with the HS coach and the program could give the Nats strong inside info on what it would take to sign Turner.
#7 by Brian Oliver - April 17th, 2009 at 10:37
Pilchard - The Nats drafted OF Derrick Phillips in the 23rd round last year. Same school as Turner
#8 by Ted Leavengood - April 17th, 2009 at 10:43
I wonder if you could tell the age of those who post here by whether they go for the high school types–high upside and potential out the wazoo–versus those who favor the more established talent with less risk.
#9 by John - April 17th, 2009 at 10:45
I don’t think they take Pothyress unless he’s the best player by far. Marrero’s off to a good start and could be in AA by the draft. Both are locked in at 1B. While you shouldalways take the best player, if it’s even close, I’d go a different direction.
I’d love to get Miller.
I’d argue Purke warrents strong consideration for the top 10. A low 90s fastball and a wicked slider combined with a projectable frame sounds interesting. We know the Nats like leftys.
#10 by cjrugger - April 17th, 2009 at 10:51
I think Polythress is a reach at #10, even more so based on the fact that we passed on Smoak last year (not to bring that up again). I think you need a higher ceiling guy in the top 10 than power hitting/avg fielding 1B
Good call on Derrick Phillips
#11 by Steveo - April 17th, 2009 at 10:51
Personally i have a problem drafting HS catchers in the first round. To me they better be Joe Mauer or its not worth it, in recent years we’ve seen Neil Walker (Pirates) and Brandon Snyder (O’s) have to move off the position and lose a ton of value, though Snyder maybe still would have been a late first rounder at a corner position. Also other HS catchers like Hank Conger still is a top prospect but he’s dealt with some injuries and that could force him to move from the position as well. Max Sapp has been a huge bust for the Astros, he didn’t even merit a ranking in BA’s top 30 of the Astros. Its too early to make a call on Devin Mescoraco but he has stuggled so far and.
To me its just not worth it to grab a catcher in the 1st round, esp. since we took a solid one last year. Now if one of the other Prep catchers fell to the 3-5 rounds I’d def. like to see the Nats grab them, but i’d just rather take a safer pick in the 1st.
#12 by John - April 17th, 2009 at 10:54
I agree with Steveo. Norris in round four and Nieto in round 5. This years crop is supposed to be very deep. They could probably find another.
That being said, if Bailey is the highest rated guy at #10… :)
#13 by Steveo - April 17th, 2009 at 10:55
I do agree with you Brian that Poythress isn’t a great pick for 10. He seems like a helium guy, though people said the same thing about LaPorta and he’s turned out alright. I’d personally like to see them grab another starting pitcher at 10 (preferably a college arm) and look towards hitters in rounds 2-5 with maybe a HS arm thrown in there.
#14 by Real Baseball Intelligence - April 17th, 2009 at 11:04
Real Baseball Intelligence (RBI), a leading resource in the evaluation of amateur baseball talent and draft coverage, has ranked the Top 200 prospects in the 2009 MLB Draft and offers dozens of free scouting reports (with video) at withthefirstpick.net
#15 by cjrugger - April 17th, 2009 at 11:27
RBI: You rated Dustin Ackley and Kyle Gibson ahead of Strasburg. Id hardly call you a “leading resource”
#16 by Pilchard - April 17th, 2009 at 12:24
Ouch!
Nice one, cj.
#17 by Berndaddy - April 17th, 2009 at 14:39
There’s no doubt Kyle Gibson is going to be good, but…whatcha talkinabout Willis..!!!
#18 by baller - April 17th, 2009 at 15:06
Bret Jackson seems like a bar room brawler. I’d want him after the inside fastball.
#19 by Andrew S. - April 17th, 2009 at 18:41
I think Crow will definitely be gone by the time we pick. I think the players that we will be choosing from are the high school prep arms. I think it’s going to come down to Miller, Purke, or dropping down for a college player who they think could sign easily (never forget the Lerner cheapness factor).
#20 by Ted Leavengood - April 18th, 2009 at 19:02
Two deserving questions. How many pitches did Strasburg throw in the complete game shutout? Was that Joe Hesketh’s kid pitching for New Mexico?
#21 by RD exposfan - April 19th, 2009 at 12:32
This is from the University of New Mexico website, Ted. Joe was born on June 3, 1986 in Surrey, B.C., Canada to Terry and Bonnie Hesketh. So no relation to Joe. He was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in 2005 and the Toronto Blue Jays in 2004.
#22 by RD exposfan - April 19th, 2009 at 14:09
Sorry John Hesketh is no relation to Joe Hesketh former Expos pitcher. He is a Canadian boy.
#23 by Ted Leavengood - April 19th, 2009 at 14:27
I hope the Nationals have been on the phone to Tony Gwynn. 129 pitches is about ten too many. Thanks RD, it would be an Expos fan who would remember Joe Hesketh.