DraftWatch 03/06/09
- [new] San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg struck out 18 in a 5-3 win against the University of San Diego.
- USC SS Grant Green visits Tulane this weekend.
- North Carolina RHP Alex White will face the Clemson Tigers at 3PM EST today.
- North Carolina 1B/OF Dustin Ackley faces Clemson this weekend.
- Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson faces Ball State at 7:30PM EST today.
- Baylor RHP Kendal Volz and the Bears are in the Quala-T Imprints Baylor Classic in Waco, TX. Volz is scheduled to start on Saturday against UC Irvine at 7:30PM EST.
- Oklahoma St LHP Andrew Oliver and the Cowboys are in the Palm Springs Baseball Invitational in Palm Springs, CA. Oliver is scheduled to go at 5PM EST this afternoon against Oregon State.
- [new] Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor had a no-decision in a 3-2 loss to Illinois-Chicago (box). Minor allowed one run on eight hits and two walks over seven innings of work with seven strikeouts.
- Tennessee OF Kentrail Davis and the Volunteers face Ohio for four games starting on Friday.
- Notre Dame 2B/OF A.J. Pollock and the Irish play in the Academy Sports & Outdoors Rice Classic in Houston, TX this weekend (facing Oral Roberts, Rice, & Washington State).
- Miami SS Ryan Jackson and the Canes host NC State this weekend.
- California OF Brett Jackson and the Bears visit Arkansas this weekend.
- Louisiana State SS D.J. LeMahieu and the Tigers host Illinois this weekend.
This entry was posted on Friday, March 6th, 2009, 10:30 AM and is filed under Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.
#1 by estuartj - March 6th, 2009 at 11:57
Brian, I know it’s way too early to be getting specific on guys, but for the 10th pick I’m thinking Andrew Oliver or Mike Minor. How would you rank them vs each other?
#2 by Brian Oliver - March 6th, 2009 at 12:47
FYI … Kirk Kenney, who contributes to Baseball America, had Strasburg at 116 pitches (79 strikes).
estuartj - I’d lean slightly towards Oliver. I think he’s slightly better. And if you’re going to “dance with the devil” (i.e. deal with Scott Boras) on Strasburg, might as well grab two of his clients
#3 by Jeff - March 6th, 2009 at 13:10
Who cares about the #10 pick?! Strasburg just struck out 18!!!!!!
#4 by Sue Dinem - March 6th, 2009 at 14:15
Because there are scouts comparing him to Mark Prior?
#5 by estuartj - March 6th, 2009 at 14:41
Another board was commenting on what Strasburg’s signing demand could be upward of $20mil. I have no idea how realistic that would be, or how expensive he’d have to be to price himself out of the Nats envelope.
What is the deal with signing picks to a 5 year contract vs a signing bonus. If a guy is on a 5 year deal would he be a FA after 5 or would he still be only arbitration eligible for year 6?
Delmon Young was on a deal like this, but I don’t understand how it works….a little help?
#6 by Brian Oliver - March 6th, 2009 at 14:52
I saw the reference to $20 million. That seems highly unlikely, though $12 million is not out of the question.
I need to double check, but I believe Delmon Young’s deal may have been one of those two sport contracts for high schoolers. Basically, if a baseball player also has a college career as a football or basketball player, the contract can be spread over years. Destin Hood had that type of contract.
#7 by Ted Leavengood - March 6th, 2009 at 15:00
What exactly do Mark Prior and Strasburg share in common, Sue? The assumption has to be there are questions about long term durability. Any elaboration possible on that point?
#8 by Brian Oliver - March 6th, 2009 at 15:07
Ted - There are concerns whether his mechanics suggest a future injury.
Driveline Mechanics explains how his “inverted W” has led to injuries in the past
#9 by Andrew Z. Stebbins - March 6th, 2009 at 15:09
Sue, I don’t know who you said “because” to, but Ted, Sue is right that scouts do compare him to Mark Prior. Not neccesarily just on “stuff” alone, but in terms of a really, really good - the best - college pitcher. Prior had better control, Strasburg’s arsenal is probably a bit more overpowering.
#10 by Brian Oliver - March 6th, 2009 at 15:15
Here is another analysis of his mechanics.
Strasburg does show the “inverted W” (compare his mechanics to Greg Maddux or Curt Schilling at the same site). It’s not necessarily as pronounced as Prior’s.
It’s not to say that he still shouldn’t be the #1 overall pick, but it is something that requires evaluation.
#11 by estuartj - March 6th, 2009 at 15:37
How exactly is an inverted W different from an M?
Alex White is getting shelled in the 2nd inning, 3 runs on a HR and 2 doubles, finally recorded his first out of the inning.
#12 by Brian Oliver - March 6th, 2009 at 15:40
It’s not, in general. The point they are attempting to make is that solid mechanics looks roughly like the letter W, while its inversion are classified as bad mechanics.
It really boils down to whether a pitcher keeps his elbows below his shoulders during his delivery. There is quite a bit of medical terminology involved, but many of the pitchers who have experienced arm, elbow, shoulder injuries have deliveries where their elbows go above the shoulders
#13 by Ted Leavengood - March 6th, 2009 at 16:24
Thanks, Brian and others. I watched the driveline video. Now I have to figure out what a scapula is. Is that why Bowden made the big bucks??
#14 by - March 6th, 2009 at 17:06
Compounding the problem with many pitchers is that they have the “ectomorph” body type, which in layman’s terms means they are long and lean. Structurally what that means is that they have less space between their joints, and as a DPT would put it, less margin for error.
Strasburg may not have that problem — he appears to be a mesomorph — but his greater margin for error is offset by the higher torque he puts on his joints by way of the larger muscle groups.
Now, if folks are really interested in this sort of stuff, you owe it to yourself to check out Mike Marshall’s theories about proper pitching mechanics. I’ve put a link to a Yahoo! Sports story in my handle.
#15 by Mark L - March 6th, 2009 at 19:55
Thanks, Sue. HBO ran a story like this about a year ago It leaves the impression that nothing has changed much over the years.
#16 by RD - March 7th, 2009 at 01:01
All this comparison to Prior is crap. Coming out, everyone praised Prior for his textbook mechanics. Only once he got hurt did it cause people to start scrambling for reasons.
Strasburg is fine mechanically. Pitchers get hurt. Its just a fact of baseball. It’s a crap shoot for the most part and its the chance you take in paying a kid so much at the top of the draft. There’s nothing wrong with how he delivers the ball. You take the gamble but only because pitchers get hurt because its an unnatural motion. He is no more a risk than any other pitcher other than the money he commands.
#17 by RD - March 7th, 2009 at 01:02
By the way, I dont mean that the Prior comparison is crap based on stuff, potential, or anything of the sort. I am referring to the risk involved because of what has happened to Prior over the past five years. That has nothing to do with Strasburg and doesn’t even need to be discussed.
#18 by SlowPitch63 - March 7th, 2009 at 07:04
Brian, Thanks for the Strasburg Watch. You keep topping yourself. We are very lucky you share so generously with us. My goodness, he averages more than two Ks an inning and one walk every five. Have other top pitchers had numbers like these in college?
Let’s play two!
#19 by Sue Dinem - March 7th, 2009 at 09:12
RD is right, of course, but the implication (expectation?) that Strasburg will be the savior of the Nationals should be tempered, which is my point.
The most important pick in the upcoming draft is the #10 pick anyway. Picking Strasburg as #1 is a no-brainer. Even if he becomes the next Mark Prior.
But missing on both Top 10 picks will be inexcusable… hence “The Draft Watch”
#20 by jca - March 7th, 2009 at 10:16
I’m usually one to chime in on the “extra injury risk” theory as a red flag, but I agree there is a point at which you just have to bite the bullet and hope that your medical staff is smart enough to keep him on a program of muscle strengthening and rest that prolongs his career, even if it turns out to be a candle in the wind like Prior. Dude should have won one NL pennant, which I think is one more than any Washington baseball team since the Grays (I’ll give Montreal 1994). Part of the argument on Prior was that he suffered pitcher abuse from his manager, too.
My favorite mechanics story involves Frank Jobe and Pedro. Jobe said Pedro’s mechanics were so horrible that he was an injury waiting to happen, and advised the Dodgers to take Delino DeShields in trade. Jobe of course was right, Pedro did eventually blow out his arm and lose his fastball, after 3 Cy Youngs and maybe the best 4 year stretch of pitching ever (3 of the top 20 ERA+ seasons of all time in 1997, 1999, and 2000).
#21 by Brian Oliver - March 7th, 2009 at 17:25
I always look at these mechanical analysis with a grain of salt. Most of this stuff is “ex post facto” like RD suggested. Pitcher gets hurt and then you try to match the pieces of evidence you have to why it happened.
My point in raising the issue is more along the lines of what SueD commented. It’s something to be aware of to temper the overexcitement. There is often a rush to find the next [insert highly hyped pitcher here]. Be it Gavin Floyd, Edwin Jackson, Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Chad Billingsley, Adam Miller, Fransisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Andrew Miller,Tim Lincecum, Rick Porcello or David Price.
Some of the guys work out. Some don’t.
Right now, Strasburg is by far the choice for #1 and his first three starts have done nothing to change that perception.
#22 by Egrib - March 8th, 2009 at 07:17
It doesn’t matter what he costs…. World Series caliber teams go out and get these guys…. loser franchises put cost as a main issue. Anyone other than Strasbourg tells all of us that this team isn’t serious. On the other hand, Strasbourg, Zimmerman, Detwiler, McGeary, Lannan, Ballister will give us a very very nice nucleaus…. You take the best player on the board.
#23 by Scot - March 8th, 2009 at 13:30
Whether a player gets a signing bonus or signs a major league deal doesn’t directly affect when he’s eligible for arbitration or free agency. Arbitration and free agency eligibility is based on actual service time in the majors leagues. What signing a draft pick to a major league deal does do though is mean that they have to be on the 40 man roster; to send a player who is on the 40 man roster down to the minor leagues in a given season, the team must use an “option” on the player; each player has only 3 (or 4, depending on the age at which he signs and some other esoteric criteria) option years. Once all of a players options are used, he must clear waivers before he can be sent down to the minors.
Say the Nats draft Strasbourg and sign him to a 5 year major league deal. The can option him to the minors in 2010, 2011 and 2012 if they decide that he needs development time (or if they want to delay starting the arbitration/free agency clock). If they wanted to send him down to the minors in 2013 or 2014, he’d have to clear waivers (this assumes that he spent time in the minors in 2010, 2011 and 2012, using up options each year). When his contract expires at the end of 2014, he’s still Nats property, and either pre-arbitration (if he has less than 3 years major league service time, including time spent on the DL) or arbitration eligible (if he has more than 3 years major league service time, or just under 3 years and qualifies as a super 2).
If we assume Strasbourg is drafted and signs and spends most of 2010 in the minors but gets called up in September and stays up for good, his contract status would be as follows:
2010: 5 year contract signed at draft 2011: 5 year contract signed at draft 2012: 5 year contract signed at draft 2013: 5 year contract signed at draft 2014: 5 year contract signed at draft 2015: arbitration eligible (4+ years service time) 2016: arbitration eligible (5+ years service time)
He’d be eligible for arbitration after the 2016 season.
Same scenario as above, except after the September callup in 2010 he spends the first 2-3 months of 2011 in the minors before being called up for good, and he’s not eligible for FA until after 2017.
#24 by GM-Carson - March 9th, 2009 at 06:39
WSBGM’s wants to know who has the best bullpen in the NL East. We’ve broken down each team’s set of relief pitchers and included a poll to vote.
Link: http://pabaseball.blogspot.com/2009/03/nl-east-bullpens.html
Please give it a link, if you like it. Thanks!