I’m still reading through The Baseball Prospect Book 2010 but I wanted to give my quick impressions.As I mentioned in the previous posting, 2010 had the following:
- 38 players graded/profiled: 24 arms & 14 bats
- One Grade A
- Two Grade B+
- One Grade B
- Two Grade B-
- Eight Grade C+
- Twenty-four grade C
- Three sleeper alerts
Compared to 2009 where there were:
- 36 players graded/profiled: 17 arms & 19 bats
- No grade As
- Two grade B+
- One grade B
- Three grade B-
- Twelve grade C+
- Eighteen grade C
- One sleeper (Derek Norris)
It appears the top tier is getting better with the addition of guys like Strasburg and Storen along with breakout of Norris. I figured it would be interesting to look at the Nats included in 2009 along with thier 2009 grade and the current disposition (in the 2010 book or not):
In the 2010 book (14):
- OF Michael Burgess B+: Grade dropped to B-
- RHP Paul Demny C: Grade unchanged
- SS Ian Desmond C+: Grade unchanged
- SS Danny Espinosa C: Grade improved to B
- OF JR Higley C: Grade unchanged
- OF Destin Hood C+: Grade unchanged
- 1B Chris Marrero B: Grade dropped to B-
- OF Justin Maxwell C+: Grade unchanged
- LHP Jack McGeary B-: Grade dropped to C
- CA Adrian Nieto C+: Grade dropped to C
- CA Derek Norris C+: Grade improved to B+
- RHP Brad Peacock C: Grade unchanged
- OF JP Ramirez C+: Grade dropped to C
- LHP Josh Smoker C+: Grade dropped to C
No longer rookies, so not in 2010 book (6):
- OF Roger Bernadina C+
- RHP Tyler Clippard C
- LHP Ross Detwiler B-
- RHP Shairon Martis C+
- RHP Garrett Mock B-
- RHP Jordan Zimmermann B+
Still rookie eligible but not in 2010 book (12):
- RHP Adrian Alaniz C
- LHP Will Atwood C
- OF Mike Daniel C
- OF Leonard Davis C
- SS Smiley Gonzalez C+
- LHP Graham Hicks C
- OF Marcus Jones C
- IF Stephen King C
- OF Marvin Lowrance C+
- LHP Yunior Novoa C
- 1B Bill Rhinehart C
- RHP Colton Willems C+
No longer in organization (4):
- RHP Marco Estrada C (in 2010 book)
- LHP Mike Hinckley C
- CA Luke Montz C
- RHP Terrell Young Grade C
With Nationals in 2010 but not 2009 but graded elsewhere (1):
- LHP Victor Garate C (Dodgers): Grade unchanged
- LHP Aaron Thompson C+ (Marlins): Grade dropped to C
Of those who graduated out of the book, I’d say that only Detwiler & Zimmermann are long term options as major league regulars. Guys like Bernadina, Clippard, Martis & Mock are bench players or extra arms for the bullpen (though I’m sure there are some Clippard fans who might disagree).
The only improved grades were Derek Norris and Danny Espinosa with six guys keeping the same grade. It is disappointing to see the guys who have slipped (Burgess, Marrero, & McGeary) as they are considered some of the top prospects in the organization.
The guys who dropped out of the book completely include primarily the Grade C guys who Sickels typically views as future role players (most likely). The two names that stand out to me are Gonzalez and Willems. Lugo (nee Gonzalez) is not a surprise but Willems needs to be viewed as a failed pick.
I’m not going to to list the names of all of the new guys in the book (buy it from Sickels, it’s worth it), but I’ll give a quick breakdown of the 21 new Nats in the book:
- Ten from 2009 draft (hint: I’ll spot you Strasburg & Storen)
- Five international players from within the organization (hint: two arms were added to the 40-man this fall)
- Four from other drafts (hint: two from 2007 and two from 2008)
- One from outside the organization (Luis Garcia)
- One undrafted free agent (Josh Wilkie)
It;s a mixed bag, in my opinion, there are some strong guys but there also appears to be some stagnation and regression.
#1 by cjrugger - February 3rd, 2010 at 18:00
Thanks for the recap Brian
Definitely dissapointing to see so many of the top guys had down years last year, and now many have their backs against the wall. Almost all the 06 (Willems, Souza, Marrero) and 07 draftees (McGeary, Smoker, Burgess) need bounce back years or else they will be passed (hopefully) by younger players
#2 by cjrugger - February 3rd, 2010 at 18:02
Ps. Are Lombardozzi and Marcos Frias two of the new guys rated?
#3 by peric - February 3rd, 2010 at 18:07
Let’s wait and see what the new crop of pitchers Rizzo drafted last year can do. Plus I see more college pitching in the upcoming draft. Holder and Karns?
#4 by peric - February 3rd, 2010 at 20:42
Ignorance here: I don’t see Karns on the big board?
#5 by Mezza - February 3rd, 2010 at 21:03
Brian, picking up on your point about Willems (and the $1.425m paid to him); surely the 2006 draft will go down as very bad one for the Nats? (fingers still crossed for Marrero).
#6 by Markfd - February 3rd, 2010 at 21:11
Yikes, for all the enthusiasm with the Big League Nats it pains me too see most of our position players and highly thought of prospects are regressing.
#7 by Brian Oliver - February 3rd, 2010 at 22:22
peric – Oversight on my part
cjrugger – Yes
#8 by exporam - February 4th, 2010 at 13:01
Off topic, but I saw Bryce Harper play last night in Mesa (S. Nevada vs. Gateway). Here is my clueless analysis.
He batted 2nd and beat out a infield hit in the first inning. He then stole 2nd and advanced to 3rd on the bad throw. 2nd AB was a weak liner to LF. 3rd AB he ripped one through the right side. I am no scout, but he looked to have good plate discipline and very quick hands.
He played catcher and looked pretty bad back there receiving, but he is young. Twice pitches in the dirt bounced and caught some meat (once on the hand) and the ump had to pause the game to give him time to recover. His brother was pitching – a lefty with MANY 1st pitch strikes, good fastball, and pretty decent offspeed stuff. Interestingly, he (the pitcher) got booted for saying something to the ump.
Many scouts there including several from Cubs and D’backs had no less than 8 scouts there (including Dipoto and Hinch).
#9 by Pilchard - February 4th, 2010 at 13:39
IIRC, the Nats drafted Harper’s brother out of HS, but failed to sign him.
#10 by cjrugger - February 4th, 2010 at 17:58
Plichard- yeah youre right, he went to UC something and then transferred back this year
Ram- thanks for the write up. Ive been surpised by how often Harper is running (and being successful) so far
#11 by phil dunn - February 4th, 2010 at 20:09
Sadly, the long and the short of it is that the Nats farm system is a big bust. They’ve had five seasons to develop some young talent and the cupboard is so bare that they have to sign over the hill retreads to fill up the Triple A roster.
#12 by Mezza - February 4th, 2010 at 20:47
Phil, I think that’s a bit harsh to be honest (although I also think it should taken into account that the Expo system was systematically run down when the Nats took it on).
What do u classify as being a success for a farm system? How many MLB players per draft do you want? Surely if you got one everyday player per draft and maybe a bench/role player per draft most teams would be happy with that. Few teams wish for an All Star player in a draft but its widly optimistic to think you can produce one per draft.
If you look at the ML regulars produced each year: 2005 draft: R Zimm, Lannan (plus Stammen and Maxwell) 2006: None (and probably not a great draft with only Marrero the likely ML player) 2007: J-Zimm and Detwiler (early to tell but could add Burgess and Norris) 2008: Too early to call (but Espinosa, Hood, etc) 2009: Stras and Storen (others might emerge).
I think looking at some of those results – its hard to say that the farm is a ‘big bust’. In the last 5 years, they have an all star 3B, possibly 2 top of the roation pitchers, a genuine closer, and could add an everyday catcher, SS, plus others…
#13 by natteringnabob - February 4th, 2010 at 21:40
the farm system isn’t a bust because of the draft. it is a bust because of the lack of latin american prospects. when are they going to get serious about the dominican?
#14 by Steven Biel - February 4th, 2010 at 23:30
As a general rule, having so many guys from the most recent draft ranked high is a sign of a weak system overall.
#15 by cjrugger - February 5th, 2010 at 00:42
Phil- every team signs retreads to play AAA, but thanks for the doom and gloom outlook
#16 by Positively Half St. - February 5th, 2010 at 06:59
OK, so the Nats signed Adam Kennedy. Who is the next poor schmo voted off the roster and exposed to waivers?
#17 by Brian Oliver - February 5th, 2010 at 07:47
Steven – Not always the case with Sickels, Texas, Tampa, Florida, and San Francisco are considered four of the top minor leagues in MLB and Sickels has the following # of 2009 draft picks profiled for each organization: 6, 10, 8 & 8.
PHS – I’d guess Atilano
#18 by Brian Oliver - February 5th, 2010 at 07:49
and I agree with cj regarding the composition of Triple-A. It typically is filled with retreads and four-A guys.
The area to be concerned is what homegrown bats are available for Harrisburg. This organization is still a few years from being truly healthy.