Overall, the Nationals had a solid June among their minor league affiliates, finishing with a combined 81-69 record for the month with the full season affiliates finishing 62-46. I realize that team record is not necessarily an accurate indicator of the health of the Nationals player development, but positive results are positive results.
[June hitting and pitching statistics]
A more detailed analysis after the jump
Syracuse
The Chiefs finished the month of June with an 18-10 record lead primarily by their four starting pitchers. RHPs Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, J.D. Martin, and Marco Estrada were a combined 13-3 with an ERA of 2.47ERA and a WHIP of 1.02. In their 120 1/3IP, they struck out 96 while walking 20. Breaking that out individually:
- Balester 4-1 2.30ERA 1.18 WHIP 20K/11BB 31.1IP
- Mock 3-1 2.05ERA 0.87WHIP 26K/4BB 26.1IP
- Martin 4-0 1.35ERA 0.87WHIP 23K/3BB 33.1IP
- Estrada 2-1 4.30ERA 1.16WHIP 27K/3BB 29.1IP
The Nationals are reportedly going to shut down the likes of Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Craig Stammen based on innings totals. The presence of the four aforementioned starters (along with Shairon Martis) give the Nationals options for September’s rotation.
From a prospect point of view, Balester likely has the highest ceiling and that’s as a #3 or 4 starter. The other three are more back of the rotation options who could should occasional flashes.
Offensively, Syracuse was led by 2B Seth Bynum (276/308/561) and OFs Justin Maxwell (260/393/531) & Jorge Padilla (348/430/424). Bynum continued on his breakout season with a team-leading 55 total bases 18 RBI and 6 homers (tied with Maxwell). He’s not really considered a prospect given his age (28) and his glove at 2B is average, but credit Bynum for really turning it on in 2009.
Maxwell, on the other hand, still has prospect possibilities. After a slow start to the month, Maxwell hit 297 with two homers eleven RBI and six stolen bases over his final ten games. He’s started to walk more (20BB in 28 June games) but he still strikes out (34K in 96AB in June). The acquisition of Nyjer Morgan seems to block his chance of starting in CF for the Nationals, but if they move any combination of Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns or Willie Harris, I’d imagine he would be in line for a promotion.
The final guy is Padilla, the 29-year old Padilla has done nothing but hit this year for the Chiefs.
- April 378/452/432
- May 382/440/471
- June 348/430/424
The problem for Padilla is he shows very little power (2 homers on the season) and only so-so speed (8/16 in SB attempts for the season). He’s right-handed and primarily plays the corner outfield positions. Given the Nationals current roster composition is pretty far down the depth chart.
- Hitter of the month: Bynum
- Pitcher of the month: Martin
Harrisburg
The Senators really turned their season around after an abyssmal start (2-16 in April). Harrisburg won 20 of their 29 games in June led by an improved offense and an shutdown corps of relievers.
Leonard Davis (309/370/577) and Marvin Lowrance (333/416/603) led the way on offense for the Senators, and IF Ofilio Castro broke out of an early season slump to hit 360/429/533.
While Davis was removed from the 40-man earlier this season, he’s done everything John Stearns has asked of him in Harrisburg. Practically every game has seen him at a different position, from 2B to 3B to LF to CF to RF, Davis has demonstrated some impressive positional flexibility (though not a gold glove at any of them). With the bat, Davis led the Nationals minor league affiliates with 56 total bases and 20 RBI. Add to that his 5 homers and 4/5 stolen bases and Davis has made a case for a utility role somewhere in 2010 (be it the Nationals or somewhere else).
Lowrance has quietly had a very nice season for the Senators. After a solid April (309/356/582), he struggled some in May (221/310/455) but has bounced back this month. The 24-year old left-hander now has 13 homers and 32 RBI for the season. He’s likely a fifth outfielder as a ceiling (though he lacks speed) but a left-handed bat in the corner outfield is something to watch.
Castro is a solid middle infield option for Harrisburg whose primarily tool is his bat. He’ll never hit for much power but he knows how to get on base and is patient at the plate. He hits left-handers (302/421/413) and right-handers (292/350/377) well but his lack of power and speed destine him for a utility role at best, a cup of coffee more likely.
The last name of interest in Harrisburg’s everday lineup is SS Ian Desmond. Desmond returned from a hamate injury and hit 258/321/454 with 4 homer, 10 RBI and 8/10 stolen bases. He is the best prospect on the Senators and while he may never live up to the initial (and ridiculous) hype, he has the chance of helping the Nationals in 2010 as a back-up middle infielder. I’ve mentioned it before, but I would hope the Nationals are considering the 23-year old as an option in center field. Think of him as a Willie Harris type.
The starting pitching was solid for Harrisburg in June with RHPs Erik Arnesen (2-0 3.77ERA 1.19WHIP 27K/4BB), Carlos Martinez (4-2 3.09ERA 1.11WHIP 24K/10BB) and Luis Atilano (1-1 2.70ERA 1.37WHIP 14K/6BB) but it was the bullpen who shined during the month. The eight arms that saw only work out the pen, combined for a 10-2 record with 9 saves, a 1.95ERA, 1.16WHIP and 82K/28BB over 62 appearances (101.2IP). The stars of the pen were LHPs Jack Spradlin & Dave Williams, RHPs Josh Wilkie & Andrew Kown.
Their individual stats:
- Spradlin 11G (19.1IP) 2-0 3SV 0.93ERA 0.98WHIP 18K/5BB
- Williams 11G (15.2IP) 1-0 2SV 2.30ERA 1.15WHIP 15K/2BB
- Wilkie 11G (15.1IP) 4-1 1SV 2.35ERA 1.24WHIP 11K/1BB
- Kown 9G (21.1IP) 2-0 1SV 2.53ERA 1.08WHIP 12K/6BB
Those four pitchers can be split into two groups, Williams & Kown and Wilkie & Spradlin. Williams (30) and Kown (26) are older and probably better placed in Triple-A. Neither are realistic options beyond fill-in middle relievers at the major league level. Wilkie & Spradlin, both 24, have developed into intriguing options for the Nationals moving forward. While neither guy is the closer of the future or perhaps even the setup guy of the future, both have the opportunity to be contributors at the major league level in 2010 and beyond.
Spradlin was a 2005 8th round pick by the Nationals in the same draft that produced Ryan Zimmerman, John Lannan, Justin Maxwell, and Craig Stammen. He’s never going to blow anyone away, instead relying on finesse and deceoption. His FB sits in the mid-80s but he reportedly has a major league average slider. He gets by on his command and has the potential to develop into a LOOGY for the Nationals perhaps as soon as 2010.
Wilkie is an even better story. He was signed as an undrafted free agent after in 2006. The George Washington graduate was likely signed as an organizational guy or roster filler, but has shown the ability to perhpas develop into something more. In 2008, he was the P-Nats most valuable pitcher in their successful quest for the Mills Cup (Carolina League championship). Over 46 appearances (60.2IP) he was 1-2 with 5SV and 45K/12BB. He’s shown in Harrisburg that season was not a fluke. The scouting reports on Wilkie are hard to come by (though we do have a commenter that knows him well … care to share?). Wilkie seems like one of those guys who every team has in their bullpen to bridge the gap between the starters and the setup guys.
- Hitter of the month: Davis
- Pitcher of the month: Spradlin
Potomac
The P-Nats muddled through a 14-12 month with the offense averaging 4.9 runs/G while hitting a collective 277/353/423, but making an astounding 42 errors in the field in just 26G. The starting pitching (save RHP Brad Meyers and LHP Tom Milone) and the bullpen (save RHP Dan Leatherman) also struggled for most of the month.
With the bats, the P-Nats had a pretty impressive June with ten players having more than 20 TB. They stole 44 bases, scored 127 runs, and over one-third of their hits were for extra bases.
RF Michael Burgess had a team-leading 50TB while hitting 286/387/549 with 4 homers and 15RBI. He still struck out 28 times in 91AB but his 14 extra base hits and thirteen runs scored were among team leaders. Stephen King split his time between 3B and SS in June, hitting 286/322/488 with 8/10 stolen base, 3 homers and 13RBI. CA Sean Rooney continued to mash hitting 329/380/424 with fourteen TBI. While 1B Chris Marrero batted only 266, he did hit 4 homers and drive in 14 and OF Boomer Whiting ran amok on the bases stealing 15 in 16 attempts.
On the mound, RHP Brad Meyers kept up the strong work. In his five June starts, he was 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 25K/6BB in 35 1/3IP. Meyers has proven he’s worth the promotion to Harrisburg and I wonder when the Nationals are finally going to make that move.
While his 2-2 record is not great, LHP Will Atwood has struck out 28 and walked only 3 over 29 innings of work in June. He has a 3.10ERA and 1.00WHIP over his five starts. Atwood is another one of those back of the rotation guys (as a ceiling) that the Nationals have in their system. I’d imagine he’s going to finish the 2009 season with the P-Nats with a start in Harrsburg for 2010.
The only member of the bullpen worthy of highlight for June is RHP Dan Leatherman. Leatherman has picked up where he left off in 2008, providing solid relief and vulturing wins for the P-Nats. Over 7 appearances (15 2/3IP), he is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.15WHIP, striking out eleven and walking five.
- Hitter of the month: Burgess
- Pitcher of the month: Meyers
Hagerstown
The Suns had a bad June, finishing 10-15, the only full season affiliate with a sub-500 record. They didn’t hit well (234/298/298 as a team), field well (32E in 25G) or pitch well (allowed 113R in 210IP with a 1.43 Team WHIP). It was a challenge to find stand out performances, so this is likely to be brief.
The highlight on offense was a familiar name, CA Derek Norris. While not as impressive as his first two months, Norris hit 276/390/402 in 25 games in June with two homers and thirteen RBI. The other highlights were specifically in one particular area, 1B Tyler Moore had a team-leading 14RBI but hit 225/273/315; 2B Stephen Lombardozzi hit 272/327/348 but showed little pwer; and 3B/SS Steven Souza was 9/12 in stolen bases but hit 235/267/318.
On the mound, the highlights were both LHPs, starter Patrick McCoy and reliever Kevin Light. McCoy was 2-1 with an ugly 5.25 ERA but struck out 21 and walked only 3 in 24 innings of work with a 1.29 WHIP. Light was solid in his seven appearances, over 9 1/3IP of work he was 1-0 with one save, a 0.00 ERA, 0.54 WHIP and 9K/3BB.
- Hitter of the month: Norris
- Pitcher of the month: Light
Vermont
The Monsters played only 11 games as their season kicked off halfway through the month. They were 5-6 and it’s honestly too early to really make any critical assessments on the performances there. Early performances of note are OF J.P. Ramirez (304/333/370 with 17TB, 7RBI and 14 hits over 11G), 1B Ronnie Labrie (5 RBI in 7G) and OF Justin Bloxom (HR, 4RBI & 13TB in 9G). On the mound, LHRP Clayton Dill had an ugly initial appearance but has bounced back in his nex two (1-1 1 SV 3.60ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7K/1BB in 5IP), RHP Juan Jaime is 0-0 over two starts with 1.13 ERA, 1.00WHIP and 15K/4BB over 8IP, and converted OF/RHP Johan Figuereo has struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings of relief.
- Hitter of the month: Ramirez
- Pitcher of the month: Jaime
GCL Nationals
This is an even smaller sample size of five games, I’ll leave it to the reader to scan the stats there. LF Destin Hood has started strong (7RBI in 5G), CIF Brett Newsome (2HR and 5RBI in 4G), and OF Eury Perez (3SB in 5G). Pitching is even tougher as it’s judgments on 1-2 appearances (look at Ruben De La Rosa’s one start).
Dominican Summer League
Here we actually have a month (and a day) worth of statistics to look at. The reconstruction of the Latin American presence is reflected in their 11-16 record. Rather than one team of 20-23 year olds dominating and one team of struggling youngsters (17-19), the Nationals now have one middle of the road age team (19-21) right around 0.500. On the mound, 21-year old RHP Antonio Guzman was the star going 4-0 with a 1.04ERA, 0.84WHIP, and 21K/6BB over 34 2/3IP as a starter. He’s too old for the level so take those numbers with a grain of salt. The other starter of note is one to keep an eye on, 17-year old RHP Danubio Gonzalez was 1-2 with a 2.91ERA, 1.20WHIP, and 18K/7BB over 21 2/3IP. No idea on any scouting reports but his first few starts have moved him to my watch list.
Among the bats, there are two younger players worth watching, 17-year old 2B Estarlin Martinez hit 302/402/407 with 4 XBH
- Hitter of the month: Martinez
- Pitcher of the month: Gonzalez
#1 by Steven J. Berke - July 1st, 2009 at 13:22
Considering the kind of year the big club is having, we can take some degree of comfort in the performance of the affiliates. THe four full seasons since the Nationals’ arrival in DC have seen a grand total of three winning seasons among all the full-season affiliates. (And two of these–the 2006 New Orleans Zephyrs and the 2007 Potomac Nationals–were 72-71 and 69-68 respectively; the third of course was last year’s 90-win championship season for Potomac.) We could equal that total or exceed it this year (and a comeback by Harrisburg to do that would be especially sweet; I recall that 2-16 start, and reading a quote by one of those anonymous scouts that seem to infest baseball columns, to the effect that the Senators were the worst AA team he had ever seen).
#2 by rukidding - July 1st, 2009 at 13:30
Looking at Potomac. Marrero, Burgess? and Rooney all deserve a call up. Burgess as of late. I know Norris should get the call up to replace Rooney but the other guys who fills there position in Potomac? Do the Nats promote from Hagerstown or demote from Harrisburg? Who would you think these players would be? Also it seems as if the Pnats bullpen has come apart lately. Any thoughts to putting a starter in the pen? My idea would be for Tom Milone to move there. What other players in Hagerstown deserve a promotion?
#3 by Scooter - July 1st, 2009 at 16:06
Brian — thanks for this monthly recap. I know the daily posts are popular, but for me, it’s the long-view stuff where your knowledge and attention to the clubs really shine. So, thank you.
#4 by Rocket Surgeon - July 1st, 2009 at 16:34
Brian, Thanks for the June recap. I am encouraged by the fact that our affiliates are playing good baseball. I know the minors are all about “prospects” and “projectability”, but I have to believe that winning improves a player’s confidence and we all know how big a factor that is in being successful.
This is my take on Wilkie- not dominant stuff, but more a Greg Maddux-type. Location, 2 & 4-seam fastball, excellent change, and good feel for hitter’s weaknesses. His mantra- right pitch, right location, every time. Doesn’t beat himself very often. And a desire to win, regardless of the level he’s playing. One final fact: 3-0 in 3 starts in college tournament elimination games.
Been a big NFA fan for some time and have only seen the site get better and the commentary more sophisticated. Bottom line is we all love the game and want to see the Nationals and all their affiliates continue to improve and be teams everyone is proud of. That day is coming brother, and when it does, it will taste even sweeter.
#5 by Wallyball - July 1st, 2009 at 20:59
Here is another reason for optimism. Nice article. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/zimmermann-best-rookie-pitcher
#6 by BinM - July 1st, 2009 at 21:14
Brian: In the DSL, An. Guzman’s numbers look really good (4-0, 0.87 WHIP & 1.04 ERA over 34.7IP. Maybe a jump to the GCL in July/August? On the player side, Alvarez needs to get his visa squared away & move to HAR, & Es. Martinez is raking, but it looks like he forgot his glove (13ER in 22 GP) – Yikes!
#7 by ckstevenson - July 2nd, 2009 at 11:24
Great post, love it * 200. As noted above, the daily stuff is great, but your perspective posts are outstanding and help put it all together.
Not sure if you think it’d be useful, but a post with a chart on the top 5 or 10 or 15 (or however many) players with a “forecast” or status on their potential future would be interesting. A nice summary of our top guys and what they are likely to turn into (organizational filler, middling backup, VORP equal 2B, etc). Writing what you think the Nats are projecting, what others are projecting and what you project would be a nice touch.
Not a demand, just an idea!
#8 by souldrummer - July 2nd, 2009 at 12:45
Man, this is a super helpful balm to the wound of the big clubs continuing struggles. It seems like we have a wealth of AAAA pitching talent, but the lack of offensive production at Hagerstown is a serious concern.
Harrisburg’s improvement is real positive and it’s nice to see Davis and Lowrance starting to step up again.
I like your idea about Desmond, and I hope someone in the organization has the smarts to try it.