An Updated Big Board

full of guesses.

I have had a few comments over the past couple of weeks asking who will be assigned to what levels in the minor leagues. Over the past couple of days, I attempted to make an educated guess and this is what I came up with.

There is an overabundance of arms that need to be assigned (and I still didn’t find a home for Josh Smoker or Colton Willems in full season ball).

Let’s use this as a jumping off point. Feel free to critique, criticize or tell me I’m nuts.

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Minor League Transactions

Baseball America has their weekly Minor League Transactions up.I am just going to highlight the new moves

  • Signed: 3B Luis Ordaz
  • Released: LHP Jeff Ridgway & OF Charlie Fermaint

The 34-year old Ordaz did not play in the minors in 2009. My guess is he’s going to Syracuse as an IF option off the bench.

Ridgway was signed this off-season as a minor league free agent. I’m guessing it was just a numbers game. Fermaint was signed as a minor league free agent during the 2009 season and bounced around Hagerstown and Harrisburg, primarily as an organizational type guy.

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Zinicola Returned

The Blue Jays returned RHRP Zech Zinicola to the Nationals today. Zinicola was selected by Toronto in the Rule 5 draft but the Jays decided to not keep him on their 25-man roster (or work out a deal to acquire his rights).

Zinicola will report to the minor league camp.

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Dukes Released

Mark Zuckerman had the news first and the release is out. Today, the Nationals unconditionally released OF Elijah Dukes. I’m guessing there is more to the story.

Now we wait

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More Cuts

The Nationals made a series of pitching moves today, releasing LHP Ron Villone, optioning RHP Juan Jaime to Potomac, RHP Ryan Mattheus & LHP Aaron Thompson to Harrisburg, and RHP Collin Balester & LHP Atahualpa Severino to Syracuse.

I guess the two most surprising moves were the release of Villone and demotion of Balester. With the Villone’s release, the Nats are likely to carry just one lefthander in the bullpen (Sean Burnett). Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, Scott Olsen, and John Lannan are all starters, though Chico could be a relief candidate.

Balester’s demotion is interesting to me. With all of the struggles of the Nats’ pitchers this spring, I figured Balester still had a chance at the back end of the rotation. It doesn’t mean a whole lot right now (except to Balester) but I wonder where Balester falls in the starting pecking order.

The Big Board has been updated.

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Digging into the Draft

Everyone knows the name at the top of practically everyone’s list of 2010 draft prospects.

Bryce Harper. The 17-year old Harper is batting 408/500/831 over his first 20 games at the College of Southern Nevada, a junior college that plays with wood bats. Harper has six home runs and twenty RBI (also of interest, Bryce’s brother Bryan, an unsigned 2008 draft pick by the Nats, is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA with 34K and 14BB over 23 2/3IP as a LHSP).

As of today, Harper is the prohibitive favorite to go first overall when the Nats select first overall in this year’s Rule 4 draft.

But it is not a slam dunk a #1 as Stephen Strasburg was for the Nats in 2009. Here are the other guys I am tracking as possibilities for the Nats pick in 2010:

  • HS RHSP Jameson Taillon: He has pitched in the upper-90s for Woodlands HS in Texas, hitting 99. While he has a legitimate shot to go first overall, I’m not sure if a Mike Rizzo led team would go with a HS RHP first overall (it would be the first time ever)
  • LSU RHSP Anthony Ranaudo: Entering the 2010 season, along with Taillon, Ranuado was the closest competition for Harper at #1 overall. Working in the low to mid-90s with above average control. But a stress reaction in his right elbow has limited him to just five innings so far. Not sure he’s still in the running for #1 overall, but someone might get a steal in the mid/late first round.
  • Georgia Tech RHSP Deck McGuire: Of any of the college arms, McGuire has the most Mike Rizzo feel to him. He throws a heavy 90+ mph fastball with a sharp curve. As of today, if the Nats were not to go with Harper, I’d think McGuire has the best chance to go #1.
  • Arkansas 3B Zack Cox: A draft-eligible sophomore, Cox is all about the power. His strike zone judgment is a concern, but the bat is impressive. With the chance to go back for his junior season, I’m not sure if he’s in the #1 overall picture.
  • Middle Tennessee State OF Bryce Brentz: I’ll let Andy Seiler describe Brentz in detail. He is a corner OF who is under consideration for a shot in center field (he also pitches). I’m not sure what it is about Brentz, but if the Nats want a bat and are not comfortable with the youth of Harper, I like the idea of Brentz at #1 overall.

I still think Harper is the right choice for #1 overall, those are just some other names I find intriguing.

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Roster Moves

Old news for today, but the Nationals released LHPs Eddie Guardado & Shawn Estes and re-assigned LHP Victor Garate, RHPs Logan Kensing, Joel Peralta & Ryan Speier, CA Derek Norris and OF Jerry Owens to minor-league camp.

Additionally, the Nationals released OF Aaron Seuss and removed 2009 draft pick Gianison Boekhoudt from the restricted list.

The Big Board has been updated.

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Strasburg Starts Today

and my planning period at school just so happens to fall during the 1PM hour.

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Option Status

There is a contractual nuance that seems likely to come into play when the Nationals make their 25-man roster decisions coming out of spring training.

It’s called option status. The quick and dirty on options is as follows

If a player is on the 40-man roster but not on the active 25-man roster, he is said to be on optional assignment. This means that the team can freely move him between the major league club and the minor league clubs. It’s better to think of the term as option years rather than simply options.
If a player is on the 40-man roster and not the active 25 man roster for any part of more than three seasons in which he spent 20 or more total days of service in the minors, he is out of options and may not be assigned to the minors without first clearing waivers.
There exists an opportunity for a player to have a fourth option year. If he has less than 5 years of professional experience, he may be optioned to the minors in a fourth season without being subject to waivers.

Why do I bring this up?

Because option status is likely to come into play when it comes to some of the decisions the Nats are going to make.

Here is the option status of everyone currently on the Nats 40-man roster:

  • RHP Luis Atilano – Added to 40-man in November of 2008. Nats used first option year in 2009. He spent the entire 2009 season in the minor leagues. Option years remaining: Two [though Nats should be able to get a fourth given his service time]
  • RHP Collin Balester – Added to 40-man June 2008; first option used in 2009. Option years remaining: Two
  • RHP Jason Bergmann – The option poster child. Added to 40-man in August 2005; first option year was 2006 (he was up & down four times in 2006 but used only one option); spent entire season in majors in 2007 (no option used); used second option in 2008; and third option in 2009. Option years remaining: None (meaning he would have to face waivers this year if the Nats want to send him down)
  • RHP Brian Bruney: Added to Diamondbacks 40-man November 2003; first option year in 2004 (Diamondbacks); second option year in 2005 (Diamondbacks); final option year in 2006 (Diamondbacks). Option years remaining: None (meaning he would have to face waivers this year if the Nats want to send him down)
  • LHP Sean Burnett: Added to Pirates 40-man in November 2003; used first option in 2004 (Pirates); spent 2005 on DL (no option used); used second option in 2006, third option in 2007, & fourth option in 2008 (all with Pirates; 4th option granted given service time). Option years remaining: None (meaning he would have to face waivers this year if the Nats want to send him down)
  • RHP Matt Capps: Added to Pirates 40-man in September 2005; has not used any options; update: he has less than 5 years service time, so options are still in play Option years remaining: Three
  • LHP Matt Chico: Added to Nats 40-man in November 2006; Optioned down for only 15 days in 2007 so, if I am reading the rules correctly, did not use an option; first option used in 2008, second option used in 2009. Option years remaining: One
  • RHP Tyler Clippard: Added to Yankees 40-man in May 2007; first option used in 2007 (with Yankees); second & third options used in 2008 & 2009 (with Nats). Option years remaining: None (meaning he would have to face waivers this year if the Nats want to send him down)
  • LHP Ross Detwiler: Added to Nats 40-man September 2007; first option year in 2008; second option year in 2009. Option years remaining: One (though Nats should be able to get one more given his service time)
  • LHP Jesse English: Added to Giants 40-man November 2008; first option year used in 2009 (Giants). Option years remaining: Two [2010-11] (though Nats should be able to get one more given his service time)
  • RHP Juan Jaime: Added to the Nats 40-man November 2009; no options used. Option years remaining: Three (with realistic chance of a fourth)
  • LHP John Lannan: Added to the Nats 40-man July 2007; first option used in 2007; was optioned down for 9 days in early 2009 so I don’t believe he used an option year. Option years remaining: Two
  • RHP Jason Marquis: Added to Braves 40-man in 2000; from what I was able to determine, he’s never been optioned to the minors. Option years remaining: Three (though given his service time, he can refuse demotion)
  • RHP J.D. Martin: Added to Nats 40-man July 2009; no options used to date. Option years remaining: Three (with a realistic chance of fourth)
  • RHP Shairon Martis: Added to Nats 40-man September 2008; first option used in 2009. Option years remaining: Two (with a realistic chance of an additional one)
  • RHP Ryan Mattheus: Added to Rockies 40-man in November 2008; first option used in 2009. Option years remaining: Two (with an almost certain additional one)
  • RHP Garrett Mock: Added to Nats 40-man October 2007; first option used in 2008; second option used in 2009. Option years remaining: One
  • LHP Scott Olsen: Added to Marlins 40-man June 2005; first option used in 2005; Unsure if he used an option in 2006 since he was only in the minors for 14 days. Option years remaining: One, possibly two
  • LHP Atahualpa Severino: Added to the Nats 40-man November 2009; no options used. Option years remaining: Three (with realistic chance of a fourth)
  • RHP Craig Stammen: Added to Nats 40-man May 2009; no options used to date. Option years remaining: Three (with a realistic possibility of an additional one)
  • RHP Stephen Strasburg: Added to Nats 40-man August 2009; first option year used in 2009. Option years remaining: Two (with an additional one theoretically possible, but hopefully unnecessary)
  • LHP Aaron Thompson: Added to the Nats 40-man November 2009; no options used. Option years remaining: Three (with realistic chance of a fourth)
  • RHP Tyler Walker: TBD
  • RHP Chien-Ming Wang: Added to Yankees 40-man 2005; Used options in 2003, 2004 & 2005. Option years remaining: None (may have 4th but not sure)
  • (on 60-day DL) RHP Jordan Zimmermann: Added to Nats 40-man in 2009; no options used to date. Option years remaining: Three (he’ll likely spend entire 2010 season on DL which does not count as an option)
  • CA Jesus Flores: Added to Nats 40-man (and active roster) December 2006; first option used in 2008. Option years remaining: Two
  • CA Wil Nieves: Added to Padres 40-man July 2002; first option used in 2002 (Padres); second option used in 2005 (Yankees); final option used in 2006 (Yankees). Option years remaining: None
  • CA Ivan Rodriguez: Added to Rangers 40-man in 1991; I didn’t do any real digging since his service time makes the idea of optioning him irrelevant (he can refuse demotion)
  • SS Ian Desmond: Added to Nats 40-man November 2008; used first option in 2009. Option years remaining: Two (with an additional one possible)
  • 1B Adam Dunn: Added to Reds 40-man in 2003; I didn’t do any real digging since his service time makes the idea of optioning him irrelevant (he can refuse demotion)
  • SS Alberto Gonzalez: Added to Diamondbacks 40-man November 2006; first option used 2007 (Yankees); second option used 2008 (Yankees); final option used 2009 (Nats). Option years remaining: None
  • SS Cristian Guzman: Added to Twins 40-man in 1999; I didn’t do any real digging since his service time makes the idea of optioning him irrelevant (he can refuse demotion)
  • 2B Adam Kennedy: Added to Cardinals 40-man in 1999; I didn’t do any real digging since his service time makes the idea of optioning him irrelevant (he can refuse demotion)
  • 1B Mike Morse: Added to Mariners 40-man November 2004; first option used in 2005 (Mariners); second option used in 2006 (Mariners); final option used in 2007 (Mariners). Option years remaining: None
  • 3B Ryan Zimmerman: Added to Nats 40-man in September 2005; has not used any options. Option years remaining: Three (though highly unlikely to ever use them)
  • OF Roger Bernadina – Added to Nats 40-man roster in October of 2007; first option used in 2008; second option used in 2009. Option years remaining: One (could possibly earn an additional one but that would require an entire 2010 in the minors)
  • OF Elijah Dukes: Added to Rays 40-man November 2006; first option used in 2007; second option used in 2009. Option years remaining: One
  • OF Willie Harris: Added to Orioles 40-man in 2001; I didn’t do any real digging since his service time makes the idea of optioning him irrelevant (he can refuse demotion)
  • OF Justin Maxwell: Added to Nats 40-man September 2007; first option used in 2008; second option used in 2009. Option years remaining: One (could possibly earn an additional one but that would require an entire 2010 in the minors)
  • OF Nyjer Morgan: Added to Pirates 40-man November 2006; first option used in 2007; second option used in 2008. Option years remaining: One
  • OF Josh Willingham: Added to Marlins 40-man 2004; first option used in 2004 (Marlins); second option used in 2005 (Marlins). Option years remaining: One (though he may have service time to refuse demotion)

23 Comments

Grapefruit League

The Nats kicked off spring training today with a couple of split squad games, one against the Marlins and another against the Astros. Thankfully the games don’t count and it is a time for teams to shake off the rust because the Nats came up on the short end of the stick in both games, falling 10-4 to Florida and 15-5 to Houston.

As a prospect guy, I always enjoy the split squad games because more often than not I get to see some names familiar to me (and the folks who frequent NFA). The majority of these guys are there to fill out the rosters, but it’s cool to see their names interspersed with guys who are locks on the 25-man roster.

In the loss to the Marlins, Ian Desmond played quite a bit as both a SS and RF. He finished the game 2/3 with a double, run stolen base & RBI. It’s interesting to see him spend time in RF … makes me wonder if the Nats are seriously considering him as a super sub on the major league roster. Justin Maxwell was 0/3 with a run and stolen base as the CF … I still think he’s fighting an uphill battle to win a roster spot in DC.  Jerry Owens played RF, finishing 2/3 with a stolen base and RBI & Kevin Mench entered the game late as a LF, finishing 1/2 with a run & RBI … both guys are long shots to break camp on the 25-man roster.

The following minor leaguers also made appearances:

  • CA Derek Norris was 0/0 with a pair of walks and a run scored
  • 3B Steven Souza was 0/1
  • 2B Stephen Lombardozzi was 1/1 with one RBI
  • 1B Chris Marrero was 0/0 with a SF
  • IF Francisco Soriano was 0/1 as a PH
  • RF Michael Burgess was 0/1
  • 1B Tyler Moore was 0/1 as a PH
  • RHP Luis Atilano was knocked around for four runs on five hits in just one inning of relief
  • RHP Josh Wilkie threw 2/3 of a scoreless inning, walking one

In the game with the Astros, Roger Bernadina was 1/2 with a walk and two runs scored … I think he’s the favorite in the battle with Maxwell for that final OF spot. Chris Duncan played 1B, going 0/2 with a run & RBI … I’d imagine he and Mike Morse are battling for the same spot.

Minor leaguers popping up here were:

  • SS Danny Espinosa was 0/1
  • 2B Seth Bynum, LF Leonard Davis, and RF Mike Daniel were all 0/1
  • Josh Whitesell was 2/2 with one RBI as the DH/1B
  • CA Jhonathan Solano was 0/1 as the PH
  • RHP Drew Storen pitched a scoreless/hitless inning of relief, striking out one

More than anything else, it’s nice to see baseball games back on the agenda.

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