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Mock Drafts, News & Notes


I’m going to use this post as a catch-all for today. It will be updated as I (or you folks) find new information (just let me know in the comments).

Baseball America’s Draft Dope is starting to match names with teams (and they are usually pretty good at it) …

  1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg
  2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley
  3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate
  4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez

Once again, let me say I feel sorry for Pirates fans. I’m sure Sanchez is a great person but Pittsburgh isn’t taking the best player available according to anyone’s rankings.

Today

  • 2:30PM – PGCC has moved the Nationals onto Jenkins … Scheppers moved up to #8 (Cincy) and Minor and Green were still on the board
  • 1PM – Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has the Nats on Minor at #10 (subscription required to view)
  • 11:30AM – Mayo’s final projection still has the Nats selecting Storen … Leake, Green, Miller, Jenkins & Scheppers still on the table
  • Chico Harlan mentions Minor, Storen and Jenkins as the favorites and provides an understandable explanation
  • 10AM … To kick it off, Baseball America has Mock 4.0 online with the Nationals selecting Stanford RHP Drew Storen at #10. The names still on the table include Jenkins, Leake, Shelby Miller, and Jacob Turner.

Some stuff from yesterday

  •  Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 has the Nats grabbing Vandy LHP Mike Minor at #10 … Crow, Scheppers, and Green do not have 1st round homes (though likely will end up there) and Leake, Storen, & Jenkins are still on the table at #10
  • PGCC has the Nationals taking RHP Tanner Scheppers at #10 with Green, Leake, Miller & Gibson on the table
  • Jonathan Mayo has the Nationals taking RHP Drew Storen at #10 with Gibson, Scheppers, SMiller, Jenkins and Green on the table

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 9th, 2009, 2:35 PM and is filed under Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  1. #1 by Marcus - June 9th, 2009 at 10:34

    Wow BBA’s latest mock has Green missing from the entire 1st round…I really can’t see that happening.

    Scheppers hit 101 in his last start and was sitting at 96-97…It’d be real interesting if we sign him and Strasburg through this draft.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=964

  2. #2 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 11:27

    It sounds like Minor is their top choice. I was reading that he’s added a curve and slider. His velocity actually improves during games now as he’s in great shape. I saw him a couple of weeks ago and he was sitting in the low 90s with his fastball and had a great change. I love that combo from a lefty.

    Does anyone know if Crow signed the re-draft form? It sounds like he may wish he had if they didn’t.

  3. #3 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 11:41

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5222572&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

    Mayo’s last mock has Storen as the pick. I just hope he doesn’t blow out his arm.

  4. #4 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 11:44

    I was updating it as you posted

    Seems the list is whittled down to Minor, Storen & Jenkins

    Would be nice to White in there as well

  5. #5 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 11:46

    Or Crow. I wonder what will happen with him.

  6. #6 by Berndaddy - June 9th, 2009 at 12:00

    Brian I’ve got two question burning to be asked to you today. One, if Crow goes 2-4 how bad will the Nats look for not signing him? On a scale from 1-10 (1 you’re asleep , 5 being an ordinary day and 10 you’re jumping out of your skin excited) How are you feeling about the draft today?

  7. #7 by Marcus - June 9th, 2009 at 12:02

    That Scott Boras factor that Chico brought up with Green & Strasburg combined is huge. Makes me think they’ll avoid Green since picking the two of them gives Boras the ability to completely blow up our draft.

  8. #8 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 12:07

    Berndaddy – I maintain my position that the whole Nats/Crow thing did not have to happen the way it did. Crow messed up in and is relying on one of eight teams to help him save face. If he gets drafted in the 2-9 range and signs a deal within the parameters of say $4 million, he lost a year of service time over a few hundered thousand dollars. From the Nats’ POV, they created a circumstance where they have to hope the #10 turns into something close to what Crow might have been with an anchor of having to likely forego a more talented/harder to sign player. I saw it as a lose/lose then and I still see it that way. On your scale, call it a 6.

    This draft is going to be interesting. I am expecting to scratch my head at quite a few of the selections today. This pool is really hard to categorize after Strasburg. If you could get the top 50 from every team, I can almost guarantee we would see drastically different orderings

  9. #9 by Pilchard - June 9th, 2009 at 12:14

    So, did Crow ever respond to the Nats request to allow a re-draft?

    Maybe the Nats can take Green with the #50 pick.

  10. #10 by Ronny - June 9th, 2009 at 12:47

    I don’t know about you guys, but i’m excited about this draft. I have a feeling something big is going to happen with the 10th pick. And it probably won’t be any of the guys that has been mention so far. The Nationals hear people saying who they are going to take and I think they’re going to flip the script on eveyone.

  11. #11 by RW - June 9th, 2009 at 12:55

    Brian, Do you have a BP subscription? Can you tell us who Goldstein is predicting the Nats take at #10?

  12. #12 by Rocket Surgeon - June 9th, 2009 at 12:57

    All,

    Check out this article in today’s WSJ regarding drafting pitchers #1-

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124451132127696643.html

    RS

  13. #13 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 12:58

    RW – I do not have a BPro subscription, I was going to ask the commenters for an assist

  14. #14 by Ryan - June 9th, 2009 at 13:14

    Brian and everyone-

    I have watched Minor on tv twice in his career (but never in person), and for the life of me I have no idea why he is being mentioned as a top 10 pick, and as high as #3. He seems like he would beg for a John Lannan type career with his stuff, and while Lannan is a solid pitcher, don’t we want someone with some upside at #10? Personally, I want my top 10 pick to have a fastball that hits 90mph at the very least…

    Anyone have a better opinion of Minor, or can explain the love for him?

  15. #15 by Steven J. Berke - June 9th, 2009 at 13:15

    Goldstein is predicting Minor as #10. His first ten: Strasburg, Ackley, Tate, Green, Matzek, Wheeler, White, Miller, Scheppers, Minor

  16. #16 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:20

    Ryan: I watched Minor a couple of weeks ago and he sat in the low 90s. He also has good command. His changeup was much better than Lannan’s, but his curve/slider wasn’t as good. I only watched a couple of innings.

    As far as the love, a lefty that commands a low 90s fastball and has a great changeup is hard to find. Hamels throws low 90s and has a great change, as does Johan Santana. Not saying Minor will be that good, but I can see what teams are thinking.

  17. #17 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 13:21

    Ryan – From PGCC … “Minor was a steady 88-92 mph every time out, touching 94 on occasion. He has [a clean] arm action …, a … demonstrated history of success against better competition and is closer to pitching in the big leagues. Minor’s ability to throw four pitches for strikes, notably his changeup, is at the root of his success. Outside of San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg and possibly Arizona State righty Mike Leake, Minor may be the safest college pitcher in the draft”

    I at times get too caught up in the players with helium. Minor was considered one to watch entering the 2009 season while some of the other names bubbled up as the season wore on. The question is what do/should scouts value more. A guy who slumped but had a promising initial read or a guy who burst on the scene after initially not garnering notice.

  18. #18 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:23

    Brian: When was that scouting report? The game I saw, he was over 90 with ever fastball I saw.

  19. #19 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 13:24

    May 15

  20. #20 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:30

    Mayo is saying via twitter that Crow will not go to Detroit. Could the Nats work something out? I think it would be huge for both sides if they could. Rizzo said he was trying to get them to sign the consent form. I assume they still like him. To me Crow>Storen, Jenkins…ect.

  21. #21 by Sam - June 9th, 2009 at 13:32

    I guess teams are going to be careful with these high picks and focused on using them to address needs, not to position themselves for future negotiations. But I do wonder a little re the risk of collusion with a guy like Crow — if he falls to the end of the round, it might further strengthen teams in these top round negotiations.

    Not so much re Strasburg, but other high upside guys with high demands are trying to hang tough even in a regime that allows comp picks for failure to sign.

  22. #22 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 13:33

    John – That would be an interesting turn of events. The only way I could see that happening is if the deal is signed, sealed, & delivered immediately. Do not give the story a chance to develop.

  23. #23 by Ryan - June 9th, 2009 at 13:34

    Brian-

    I know and respect PGCC, but their scouting report on Minor and BA’s report on Minor cannot be more different. And the notes I have on Minor did not have anything close to those adjectives. I certainly can and often am wrong but the times I saw him he was 88-89 with a 50 or 55 change, certainly nothing like John witnessed. Heck, I’d rather have Bashore than Minor, much better body and stuff there.

    I would be woefully disappointed if he is the selection at 10.

  24. #24 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:36

    Brian: Right. I’m saying the deal has to be essentially worked out before the pick. It would save face for both sides. Right now it looks like Crow would end up getting way less than he wants and the Nats would likely get a much less talented player. It’s really a lose/lose unless they can work something out.

  25. #25 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:37

    Ryan: We definitely watched a different player. I watched the first three innings against LSU and he was 90+ on the FB and his change was awesome. I’d say closer to 70 than 55, but I’m not good with that scale. It was definitely a plus change though.

  26. #26 by Dave at Nats News Network - June 9th, 2009 at 13:40

    i too will be disappointed if the pick is Minor. Minor is a nice, safe pick but the ceiling is definitely not as high as some of the others. the Nats have a chance to absolutely electrify this draft, especially if teams are scared off of Crow, Scheppers, or others now it sounds.

    larger picture though, we could be seeing the end of the draft as we know it unfold today. if all these players are rumored to want higher than slot money, and teams give in, it gives those that want the concept of “slot” abolished plenty of ammunition.

  27. #27 by Ryan - June 9th, 2009 at 13:43

    John,

    I truly am not trying to be a smart alek (is that how it is spelled?) but in my notes I wrote “and this guy Minor is expected to be a premium prospect in the 09 draft??? looks like an org. player to me”….

    Now I am certainly not a top talent evaluator, but it makes me chuckle… I’d rather have Paxton, Brothers, Bashore, and Andy Oliver before Minor.

    Oh well, here’s hoping for Jenkins at this point or a moment of clarity in the organization and take the best player they can.

  28. #28 by Roberto - June 9th, 2009 at 13:43

    Here’s what Goldstein wrote in BP:

    “All anyone has talked about is the Nationals going cheap (or at least reasonable) here, with possibilities including lower first-round talents like Kennesaw State righty Chad Jenkins or Cal outfielder Brett Jackson. Don’t believe it. The Nats are planning on taking the guy they like here. They have a lot of hope for White to drop to them, but that’s looking more and more unlikely. Aaron Crow here would be great for entertainment purposes, but that is not going to happen. Still in the mix for many teams in the top five, Mike Minor is still a slight overdraft here, but should be easily signable, with the ability to help the big-league club in short order. If he’s gone, still think college and safe.”

  29. #29 by cjrugger - June 9th, 2009 at 13:46

    andy seilers 3 round mock

    http://mlbbonusbaby.com/

    uh, would be ugly

  30. #30 by Marc - June 9th, 2009 at 13:47

    Wow – if they end up with a deal signed, sealed, delivered and he’s in the rotation come August, the only person who ends up still looking bad is Bowden. I think I’d call that win/win/win. =)

    Still holding onto hope for Green, though. I’d also warm up to Pollock – I just really, really, really think we need to get a bat at 10 and not another arm. Though, Crow or Minor and Strasburg might actually allow you to trade a Lannan or Stammen or one of the other young starters if you needed to.

  31. #31 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:49

    Ryan: I’ll trust you. You sound like you’ve seen him more than I. Perhaps the speeds on the TV gun were high.

    I’m starting to hope for Crow. The only name I’ve seen that makes me nervous is Storen. I’m not a fan of reliever to starter, especially with a premium pick.

  32. #32 by Ryan - June 9th, 2009 at 13:55

    John,

    Who am I? I am just a huge college baseball fan with far too much time on my hands, just ask my wife. Minor has just always baffled me but those that get paid to scout like him, so hope they make me look foolish.

    As for Storen, I have seen him a fair amount, and while I feel he would be an overdraft at 10, he is a darn solid pitcher, with legit velocity. He had the 2nd best velocity on the Cape last summer (94-95) behind Ben Tootle. And Storen has a strong breaking pitch and I saw him throw a few changeups. I agree with you about relievers to starters, but Storen is a nice looking player.

  33. #33 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 13:58

    Storen looks great on the video I saw. It looked like he actually had three pitches. He didn’t throw any changeups, but there was a slider and more of a slurve type pitch. He’s definitely impressive.

  34. #34 by Andrew F. - June 9th, 2009 at 14:13

    Ultimately, I don’t see the point in taking somebody at #10 who roughly projects to be similar to what we currently have in the rotation or in the pipeline, just because he can get to the big club faster. Seems to me the ceiling for a Balester or a Martis (maybe a stretch) is what we’d be getting with a Minor or Jenkins.

  35. #35 by Marc - June 9th, 2009 at 14:33

    Andrew, though I’m clearly in the tank for Green, pitchers are the only place where I can see stockpiling – if you’re getting a Martis or a Lannan or a Zimmermann at #10, that’s ok – because one of them isn’t going to develop, and probably another one’s going to get hurt.

    For every Lannan or Stammen that breaks out, there’s a McGeary or a Willems or Zinicola or Carr or Wagner or Mock or Chico who doesn’t make as much progress as you think. Extra arms aren’t bad, but I few them like lottery tickets – you might get a winner in the 11th round (Lannan) or a disappointment in the first (Wagner), so if you’ve got a chance to take a near-MLB ready bat, you ought to do it.

  36. #36 by Marc - June 9th, 2009 at 14:35

    wow – I “few” them…make that “view” them.

  37. #37 by cjrugger - June 9th, 2009 at 14:36

    “so if you’ve got a chance to take a near-MLB ready bat, you ought to do it.”

    I agree, unfortunately Green’s bat is not close to “near-MLB ready”

  38. #38 by Dick - June 9th, 2009 at 14:43

    Do we know for sure that the Nats are off Scheppers? I have not seen his name come up anywhere.

  39. #39 by VladiHondo - June 9th, 2009 at 14:44

    Count me out of the Crow bandwagon, still don’t like his mechanics, don’t like his agents. He doesn’t wow me, unlike last year where the case could be made he was #1 or at least #1A. Scheppers is intriguing . . . .

  40. #40 by Brian Oliver - June 9th, 2009 at 14:46

    Dick – I have only seen Scheppers + Nats in mock drafts that don’t suggest inside information

    VH – Crow doesn’t wow me but I would rather him than some of the other names we’ve heard

  41. #41 by Andrew F. - June 9th, 2009 at 14:49

    I don’t disagree with stockpiling arms. It just seems the arms we are stockpiling are back of the roatation or fringe rotation guys. We seem to have those in spades. I just want them to take a chance on a better arm (Crow, Scheppers, White, Leake, whoever).

    Or, in other words, screw the fiscally-minded signability approach, which is what Minor or Jenkins is.

  42. #42 by Marc - June 9th, 2009 at 15:05

    CJ – That’s not what the numbers say. I don’t do much for traditional scouting reports, but when a guy OPS’es 1.000+ at USC two years running, he’s something other than “raw.” He’s not Ackley, but for high-end bats in this draft, who’s more developed other than Ackley?

    I’ve seen the projections knocking Green out of the first round, but I just think he’s going to end up making a lot of teams look foolish because they’re focused too much on helium and projectability,etc. Especially if the rumors of him playing with an injured hand are true – if the power comes as it normally does, I think he may really be something.

  43. #43 by Nats fan in NJ - June 9th, 2009 at 15:21

    I’m still in the tank to grab Green if he’s available at 10, though with Boras as his agent, that could be scary…

  44. #44 by VladiHondo - June 9th, 2009 at 15:33

    Brian, You’re right about Crow better than Jenkins and Storen for sure. Still wonder if the HS arms would tempt us enough if they fall to us! Then it’s the ugly signability issue.

    Notice the Prez Club tix allow you to look in on the war room at tonight’s game – did they invite you??!!

  45. #45 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 15:35

    baseballrumormill.com quotes Churchill as saying Storen is in the mix for Atlanta at #7. Churchill/Law says the Reds would consider Jenkins and Storen if Minor isn’t there.

    It sounds like there’s a chance White could be there at ten. I hope so, since he’s apparently the Nats top choice.

    I’ll be very interested to see what happens if Matzek slips. I wonder if the Nats would really “honor the board” and take him.

  46. #46 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 15:39

    Very interesting stuff. Pads might pass on Tate and take Wheeler. The O’s would then take Matt Hobgood.

    Would Atlanta take Tate and let White fall to 10? Would the Nats take Tate at 10?

    Why isn’t it 6 PM yet?

  47. #47 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 15:42

    Law now says the Pirates have a pre-draft deal with Sanchez. I’m right with Brian in feeling bad for their fans, although I haven’t seen Sanchez play. I hope this means the Pirates are going to get Sano on July 2.

  48. #48 by Mike - June 9th, 2009 at 15:46

    Brian, please forgive me if this information is somewhere else on your website. I always hear about slot money and I assume MLB along with the owners and union have set amounts to sign picks based on the round and position they are taken in.

    My question is what are those amounts?

  49. #49 by longterm - June 9th, 2009 at 15:48

    Why is Zimmermann scratched tonight?

  50. #50 by expo_ram - June 9th, 2009 at 16:15

    Why did the Bucs break the bank on Alvarez last year, then go cheap this year (esp after losing McLouth)?

  51. #51 by VladiHondo - June 9th, 2009 at 16:22

    Zimmermann has elbow discomfort, according to Ladson.

    MLB keeps the slots secret, even from other teams – they are told only the slot for their own picks.

  52. #52 by DCNatsFan - June 9th, 2009 at 16:23

    Mike – the slotting system is divised by MLB and is not in collaboration with owners or union. This is one of Selig’s pet projects and is not mentioned anywhere in the CBA. MLB makes projections based on prior years bonuses + inflation where they believe signing bonuses should be. Unfortunately this alienates many small market teams because they feel they need to follow Selig’s recommendations because of the revenue sharing agreement. This is why you see guys like Porcello falling to Detroit in ‘07 or Weiters falling to Baltimore in the same draft. In addition, this is why many teams wait until right before the bell to announce their signings. Once someone in the top 5 signs, then everyone else will base their demands on that contract. Especially if it is advantageous. For example, if the Rays announced Price’s deal when it would was reached, it is likely everyone behind him would have asked for more. Now this is all arbitrary. Obviously Strasburg isn’t your normal draft pick, therefore, Ackley can’t use his demands to his advantage. But I guarantee the Catcher from Las Vegas will use Strasburg’s contract as a base framework when he is drafted.

  53. #53 by Marc - June 9th, 2009 at 16:57

    So – several of the latest mocks have Green all the way out of the first round. Somebody tell me there’s no way he makes it all the way to #50, right?

    Also – KLaw’s 4.0 is up, but I don’t have insider access to it, but am amused by the throwback headline “Crow’s signability issues could determine how the 1st round goes.”

    Here’s hoping for the Schadenfraude of him going lower than 9, and having a long contractual fight.

  54. #54 by John - June 9th, 2009 at 17:35

    expo: The Pirates are said to be signing an IFA named Miguel Angel Sano to a big contract. He’s a 16-year old SS.

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