«
»

NFA Mock Draft – June 4


Has it really been that long since the last NFA Mock?

Wow.

Here is my latest based on the new rumors that are floating out there …

  1. Nationals – San Diego St RHSP Steven Strasburg -  A lead pipe lock at this point. Last time: Strasburg
  2. Mariners – UNC 1B/OF Dustin Ackley – Ackley seems like the slam dunk here, though Aaron Crow could still be a dark horse here. Last time: Ackley
  3. Padres - Fort Worth Cats RHSP Aaron Crow- The last time I had the Padres on UNC’s Alex White. I still see a pitcher here though there are rumblings they are also considering GA HS OF Donavan Tate. Last time: UNC RHP Alex White 
  4. Pirates - Boston College CA Tony Sanchez. This is the hottest rumor recently. The thought is that the Pirates are going to go with a signability pick here and shift their money to the international market. I think that’s a bad idea and feel bad for Pirates fans who will again watch better prospects bypassed. Last time: Crow
  5. Orioles – Capistrano Valley HS (CA) LHSP Tyler Matzek - Looking at the names still on the board, the crop of college arms has either disappointed (White), shown possible injuries (Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson), or has been linked to huge bonus demands (St. Paul Saints RHP Tanner Scheppers). All things being equal, I’d lean towards Scheppers here, but I’m going to say the Orioles make a play for arguably the best prep arm in the draft, a guy who could end up being better than Scheppers in the long run, but with greater risk- Last time: Matzek
  6. Giants – East Paulding (GA) HS RHSP Zack Wheeler – The Giants are reportedly all over the place with this pick, with ESPN’s Keith Law having them linked to college OFs (Sacramento State’s Tim Wheeler and Cal’s Brett Jackson) as well as prep arms (Zack Wheeler along with Matzek and Texas HS RHP Shelby Miller). I think the best guy of that list is Zack Wheeler, a HS arm whose selection here will disappoint the team on deck.  Last time: USC SS Grant Green 
  7. Braves – UNC RHP Alex White - The Giants will snatch the local kid right out from under the Braves. While it’s a bit disappointing, there still is one local guy out there (Tate) but given the Braves recent moves (dumping Tom Glavine to free up money for Nate McLouth), Atlanta might avoid Tate’s reported bonus demands (a rumored $6 million) and opt for a more signable option in White. With both Matzek and ZWheeler off the table, their choices are down to Scheppers (another reported pricy choice), Missouri HS RHP Jacob Turner (another reported big bonus), White or Shelby Miller. I say they’ll gamble on White regaining the form that had him a top 5 candidate entering 2009.  Last week: Zack Wheeler.
  8. Reds – St. Paul Saints RHP Tanner Scheppers - It really boils down to whether the Reds are willing to take on the big bonus demads here. With Scheppers, Tate, and Turner all still on the board with their rumored big dollar demands, they could grab a guy who would have gone earlier were it not for that. I had them on Gibson last time, but his loss of velocity late in the season raises an injury flag and makes him something of an overdraft at #9. I’m going to give the Reds the benefit of the doubt and guess they’ll grab Scheppers here and take on the negotiating challenges.  Last week: Missouri RHSP Kyle Gibson 
  9. Tigers – Westminster Christian Academy (MO) RHP Jacob Turner - As I said last time, the Tigers are never afraid to go overslot on a high schooler but I’m going to shift from the bat to the arm. They went to the well a couple of years ago with Rick Porcello, I think they’ll do it again with Turner who has gained steam as th year progressed. Last time – Cartersville HS (GA) OF Donavan Tate 
  10. Nationals – Millville (NJ) HS OF Mike Trout. From all reports (and whether we like it or not), the Nationals are going to find a guy who will agree to a pre-draft slot deal at #10. The names rumored include Kennesaw St RHP Chad Jenkins, NC HS CA Wil Myers, and Trout. It would be tempting to grab Kyle Gibson here but I do wonder about that loss of velocity and it might not be worth the risk. There have also been reports that Stanford RHP Drew Storen (a draft eligible sophomore) is in DC for a workout. He likely will not do better than #10 in 2010 but it is still too much of an overdraft. If they are going to draft a more signable guy here, I hope tab the Trout, the HS CF. His bat projects as solid average and he has the ability to stick in center field (both with the range and arm). He has drawn comparisons to Aaron Rowand. Last time: Scheppers.

I have the Nationals leaving Gibson, Tate, Green and Miller on the board.

Let loose the Mike Leake Cabal. ;)

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 4th, 2009, 11:38 AM and is filed under Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  1. #1 by longterm - June 4th, 2009 at 11:49

    it stings!

  2. #2 by Andrew F. - June 4th, 2009 at 11:50

    Hmmmmm.

  3. #3 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 12:12

    I still think it will be Stras, Jenkins and then some like Franklin or Goddwin at 50. I’d love to get Trout though.

    Gibson’s forearm tightness is giving me Shawn Hill flashbacks.

  4. #4 by Dick - June 4th, 2009 at 12:28

    Assuming I get to start the Leake discussion, I find it interesting that no one considers him a signability pick at #10. If he is truly an overdraft at 10, which I don’t believe, he should happily take the $2 million, particularly since he can’t go back to school and have a better season next year.

  5. #5 by cjrugger - June 4th, 2009 at 12:32

    Are you projecting what will happen? If so I agree with you. I’d take Trout over those other 2, I love the nugget I read that he started swich hitting this year but was willing to take bp with wood for scouts and hit both ways

    Id be dissapointed, hopefully Leake lights it up this weekend or Gibson comes in for a workout and is 100%

    2 Picks really dont make any sense to me: Why isnt San Diego on Tyler Matzek (up to 98, lefthanded, 3 pitches, clean mechanics), and Pittsburgh on Sanchez (dont even know where to begin)

  6. #6 by cjrugger - June 4th, 2009 at 12:32

    Dick: Hes not really an overdraft anymore, rumor is he won’t get by Arizona at 16

  7. #7 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 12:37

    cj – The stuff I’ve read/heard seem to imply that San Diego is either going with Tate or a college/indy arm

    As for Sanchez, I don’t get it either. If that’s true, I really feel sorry for Pirates fans

  8. #8 by Dick - June 4th, 2009 at 12:41

    Trout is intriguing and we sure could use a center fielder, at least until Dukes proves he can stay healthy and unincarcerated.

  9. #9 by Ric - June 4th, 2009 at 13:03

    Not sure about Trout. Think I’d prefer Wil Myers, Storen or Jenkins over him. If Green is available, would take him for sure.

  10. #10 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 13:07

    I’d be interested in Green but I don’t see the Nationals doing that. Green (& Boras) aren’t going to come cheaply and I still believe signability will drive that pick.

    As for an alternative to Trout, I’d be OK with Myers but I am not enamored with Jenkins. At #50, sure but at #10 I see him as a huge reach. Scouting reports imply that he is going to need to be fixed mechanically and I have little faith in the PD actually making it work.

    As for Storen, not as opposed to him as Jenkins but drafting a reliever there just doesn’t sit well with me.

  11. #11 by Ronny - June 4th, 2009 at 13:12

    Why wouldn’t they take Miller if he is there? I thought he was suppose to be signable.

  12. #12 by SlowPitch63 - June 4th, 2009 at 13:16

    I’m still hoping for Leake. He apparently has outstanding command of 4 pitches and knows how to pitch. He strikes out many, allows few hits and even fewer walks. What would his record , not height or radar readings, have to be for him to be a good choice for those who would pick someone else? It seems to me we may be making this too complicated. If you want a great pitcher why don’t you start with someone who pitches great?

    Let’s play two!

  13. #13 by Dick - June 4th, 2009 at 13:31

    SP63, like me, you don’t get it. Pitching great has nothing to do with being a great pitcher. You have to be ‘tall enough to throw on a downhill slope’. You can’t be so tall that ‘your delivery is hard to repeat’, though. You have to throw in the mid-90’s and ‘touch 97 or 98′ or higher. Wildness is okay, control can be taught, or so they say. You need ‘good makeup’. The ‘ball has to come out of your hand easy’, I guess that means you can’t use stick ‘em. You have to ‘throw with a 3/4 arm slot’, not sidearmed or straight overhand. And no ‘maximum effort deliveries’, either, that was the knock on Lincecum and you see how right they were on him. You must have a ‘plus fastball’, preferably ‘plus-plus’. You must throw a breaking ball that ’shows promise as a major league pitch’ but isn’t ’slurvy’. A ‘projectable change-up’ is good too.

    To sum it up, if you already know how to pitch, you ‘have a low ceiling’ so you are not a good draft choice. A guy that pitches great doesn’t make a great pitcher, one with a ‘high ceiling’ does. Does that help clear things up?

  14. #14 by Pilchard - June 4th, 2009 at 13:31

    Will be shocked if Tate does not go in the top 10. If the Padres don’t take him, the Tigers will.

    Bummed that the Nats look like they won’t take the best player available at #10. Even with steep bonus demands, acquiring talent through the draft is still the cheapest way to accumulate talent. A player drafted at #10 that does not sign a MLB contract is at least 8 years and probably closer to 10 years away from free agency. That’s a long time to amortize a $4 million bonus.

  15. #15 by Ronny - June 4th, 2009 at 13:34

    My pick for number 10: 1. Shelby Miller, Zach Wheeler, Tyler Matzek, Bobby Borchering, Tim Wheeler, Wil Myers, Matt Purke, Mike leake, Rex Brothers, Matt Stassi, Mike Trout, and Rich Poythress. In that order.

  16. #16 by Ric - June 4th, 2009 at 13:36

    Mayo at MLB.com has a new mock – he has the Nats taking Storen, passing on Gibson, Scheppers and Green. Mayo says that if Minor is still available (he has Minor to SD at #3), Nats will take him. I have not heard Minor on the Nats’ radar before, but seems like he would fit the “signability” mold. The Nats do need to factor in signability — there’s no compesnation this time if they get it wrong.

  17. #17 by Todd - June 4th, 2009 at 13:39

    (warning: rant on “signability,” cheapness of Nationals, and Crow coming)

    I don’t understand “signability picks” vis-a-vis the Nationals frankly. Lerner learned his lesson last year trying to low-ball Crow, and now realizes what damage that caused to the franchise’s reputation around the sport.

    They’re paying Dmitry Young $5M this year to eat twinkies in florida; why exactly would they be worried about whether or not Leake or Scheppers wants $4M instead of $3.5? If they’re that worried about a couple million dollars they need to look no further than the dead loss on their MLB payroll.

    Forbes estimated the Nats made $40M+ in profit last year on a payroll in the bottom 5. Its time to step it up as a franchise, spend the money to get these guys signed and move forward.

  18. #18 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 13:42

    Todd – Preaching to the choir, my good man.

    Mayo’s comment on Storen

    I know what people will think, that this is purely a money-saving maneuver. I won’t refute that completely as Storen should not be a tough sign. But he’s also a guy who could get to the big leagues this season as a reliever and might have upside potential as a starter. Add in a makeup that is off the charts and it’s easy to see why the Stanford closer has moved up and will land in the first round even if he doesn’t go here. If Minor somehow slips here, he won’t get past this spot.

    Meh.

    I am not opposed to them passing on Gibson at #10. That drop in velocity is a huge red flag.

  19. #19 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 13:43

    I read somewhere that Storen may be converted to a starter. I wonder if that’s the thinking.

  20. #20 by Pilchard - June 4th, 2009 at 13:43

    The Nats paid close to $3 million for Daniel Cabrera. How did that work out? Being penny-wise in the draft is a losing strategy.

  21. #21 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 13:44

    I like Storen, I do. I just see many of these college arms rumored at #10 interchangeable.

    (as an aside for the Leake Cabal, he has him #8 to Cincy>

  22. #22 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 13:44

    Brian Oliver :

    Todd – Preaching to the choir, my good man.

    Mayo’s comment on Storen

    I know what people will think, that this is purely a money-saving maneuver. I won’t refute that completely as Storen should not be a tough sign. But he’s also a guy who could get to the big leagues this season as a reliever and might have upside potential as a starter. Add in a makeup that is off the charts and it’s easy to see why the Stanford closer has moved up and will land in the first round even if he doesn’t go here. If Minor somehow slips here, he won’t get past this spot.

    Meh.

    I am not opposed to them passing on Gibson at #10. That drop in velocity is a huge red flag.

    So it’s actually Minor if he’s there and then Storen? Any scouting reports on Storen?

  23. #23 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 13:48

    Of all of these names flying around, I prefer them Trout, Myers, Storen, Jenkins, and Minor

  24. #24 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 13:52

    I have Harper ahead of Trout;)

    Seriously, I say high upside hitter at 10 if it’s close. You can find good college arms at 50 or even 81.

  25. #25 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 13:54

    The dream scenario is that Scheppers’ bonus demands or Gibson’s drop in velocity slide them to #50

  26. #26 by SlowPitch63 - June 4th, 2009 at 13:54

    Dick, One can but hope. I guess another black mark against Leake is that he won’t share. He insists on finishing about half his games. It’s the same thinking that had Sam Bowie picked over Michael Jordan. Oh well…..

    Let’s play two…hey, yeah, let’s really play two. I’ve been saying this since last year, Stan must be listening to me….or not.

  27. #27 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 14:13

    Storen has the same agent as Zimm. He says he throws a fastball, a “power slurve”, and a slider. He has a changeup he uses when he starts. He says most of the teams he’s talked to want him to be a starter. He designed a cleat for one of his classes at Stanford.

  28. #28 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 14:19

    PGCC on Storen

    Storen’s aggressiveness in the strike zone and the tendency for his fastball to straighten out when up in the strike zone makes him a bit prone to the long ball, and he allowed five home runs this spring-several at critical times. His fastball was consistently in the 93-95 mph range with heavy sink down low, and his ability to work the corners with it stood out. Storen’s mid-80s slider is a second plus pitch, at times, and he has similar control over the pitch. Pitching out of the bullpen with two plus pitches and plus command tells is generally a good indicator that Storen’s path to the big leagues will be a very short as a reliever. It will be interesting to see if a team takes note of Storen’s smooth delivery and arm action, and overall athletic ability, and plays with the idea of his becoming a starter as a pro. But he would need to develop a changeup, a pitch he currently doesn’t throw. Draft-eligible sophomores like Storen usually come with some signability concerns, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Storen whose value will never be higher as he seems very likely to be a mid first-round pick

    and Baseball America

    He pumps his fastball in the 92-94 mph range and regularly touches 95-96. His fastball has decent life, and his biggest difficulty has been locating it. When he misses, he misses up, leaving him a bit homer prone. While he throws a decent changeup, it’s rare, and his power slider is his best secondary pitch, giving him a second plus offering. Storen challenges hitters and isn’t afraid to pitch inside. He has a good chance to be the first college closer drafted, potentially in the supplemental or second round. While many eligible sophomores at academic institutions such as Stanford can be tough signs, Storen, whose father Mark Patrick is a radio talk show host who worked on XM Radio’s Home Plate baseball channel, will be 22 in August and has little left to prove in college.

    He is/was in DC to work out today

  29. #29 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 14:33

    Thanks Brian. Any other players working out?

  30. #30 by cjrugger - June 4th, 2009 at 14:35

    How is he a 22 year old sophomore?

    I guess I like him better than Jenkins, I hope these reports aren’t true tho

  31. #31 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 14:35

    Chad Jenkins

  32. #32 by SlowPitch63 - June 4th, 2009 at 14:35

    Storen makes sense at 50, but at 10 there seem to be many better alternatives. I must admit though, that I did not see his recent workout. My invitation must have been lost in the mail

    Let’s play two!

  33. #33 by John - June 4th, 2009 at 14:41

    Jenkins and Storen? Interesting.

  34. #34 by Josh - June 4th, 2009 at 15:05

    Why not take Sac St OF Tim Wheeler over Trout? Or if they want a CF how about Everett Williams?

  35. #35 by Marc - June 4th, 2009 at 15:27

    Gotta say – I know signability and all, but if Green is there at 10, I will be sorely disappointed if they pass on him. I really don’t understand why he’s sliding – his numbers are nearly identical to last year’s. I know at first glance there looks to be a drop in slugging – from .644 to .569, but that’s basically a sample size issue. He had 15 2b and 9 HR last year, 19 2b and 4 HR last year. If you take four of those doubles and make them HR, his SLG jumps to .606. I really don’t see why this guy is sliding out of the top-10.

    I know drafting on need is wrong, but this seems like a true confluence where the best player available also happens to be at a position of organizational need (like Zimmerman at 4). If he doesn’t have the range to stay at SS he can move to CF or 2b.

    Signability on that makes NO sense.

  36. #36 by Ronny - June 4th, 2009 at 15:27

    I rather have Tim Wheeler instead of Jenkins and Storen. Please don’t do this to me Nats. You owe us this one for not signing Crow. Now is not the time to be cheap.

  37. #37 by Wallyball - June 4th, 2009 at 15:34

    Of all these names mentioned and assuming 1-9 plays out like Brian described, I would take Leake unless they can get comfortable with Gibson’s meds. Leake has proven enough, albeit against weaker competition, to warrant the pick and he should be signable, since he can hardly improve his position. These reports on Storen seem promising, but unless they were really convinced he could make the move to starter, like Cecil of toronto, I would pass here. I like Trout, but #10 seems awfully high. I do not like Jenkins there at all, and haven’t been a big Minor fan. If White fell, I would probably take him over Leake.

  38. #38 by Josh - June 4th, 2009 at 15:34

    I think Green is being very underrated in this draft and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t go in he top 10-I also think Scheppers has a chance to be available at 10

  39. #39 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 15:36

    Josh – The Scheppers slide is based on the rumors that there are a couple Japanese teams ready to make (have already made) him an offer. He is a top 10 talent without question

  40. #40 by Josh - June 4th, 2009 at 15:48

    Is there any speculation on who the Nats will take in the 2nd or 3rd round: I have them taking LHP Matt Bashore in the 2nd and SS Deven Marrero in the 3rd-with the Marrero pick (being a bit of an overdraft in the 3rd round) based solely on his relationships with Chris Marrrero and Adrian Nieto

  41. #41 by Marc - June 4th, 2009 at 15:51

    Brian – why is it that Green seems to be sliding? Nobody even really mentions him much and each mock seems to have him falling further – are people just looking past him?

    Why do you think the Nats are passing? Signability exclusively?

  42. #42 by cjrugger - June 4th, 2009 at 15:54

    Marc- His bat went backwards (sideways at best) and theres lots of questions as if he can stay at SS defensively

  43. #43 by Brian Oliver - June 4th, 2009 at 15:56

    Marc – I believe quite a bit of his early hype was based upon his performance in last year’s Cape Cod League. The perception I had was that people were looking for the next big college MI (Longoria, GBeckham, etc). His early performance with the bat was disappointing and he ended up sitting some early. The problem was compounded when the area scouts saw favorably (his glove) also showed issues with too many errors.

    The reports I’ve seen don’t believe he can stay at SS defensively and there are questions to what kind of offense he can bring at corner IF. The conventional wisdom is that he will not hit for enough power to be a viable 3B or corner OF.

    He is an interesting guy and part of me would like the Nats to grab him if he’s available at #10.

    I do not believe he and his advisor (Boras) are going to sign at a discount. In fact, there have been rumors he’ll seek an above slot deal.

  44. #44 by Dick - June 4th, 2009 at 16:14

    Brian: The fact that Jenkins and Storen are in town is quite the scoop. Do you know if Trout has been here? They always seem to try out HS players before the draft.

  45. #45 by Real Baseball Intelligence - June 4th, 2009 at 21:41

    Real Baseball Intelligence (RBI), a leading resource in the evaluation of amateur baseball talent and draft coverage, offers its 2009 Baseball Draft Guide. The Guide includes RBI’s Top 400 draft prospects, scouting reports of the top ten players at each position, a mock draft and more. It is available at withthefirstpick.net/guide

  46. #46 by RD - June 4th, 2009 at 22:01

    If Grant Green is there at ten, you have to take him. There is a chance he remains at shortstop … thats enough to nab him. If he doesn’t and moves to third or a corner outfield spot, then so be it. If he fulfills his potential, he can be an SS or OFer for us, or trade bait as a third baseman.

    He was the major threat in the SC offense and teams could pitch around him. He shouldn’t be sliding as far as it seems he has. I would be upset if we passed on him at 10.

    As for the talks of taking a signability pick, again, I would be upset with that. There are too many guys that seem to fit just fine in that slot and should take about slot money. Shelby Miller and Matt Purke top the list that appear to be signable players with big time upsides. Since we were willing to go up to $3.5 for Crow last year, I see no reason to have to sign this pick in the $2mill range. Im not saying we should be willing to throw $3.5 at anyone on the board, but it should be an option at this pick since they were ok last year offering that(and knowing we had a chance at Strasburg the next year as well). So if there were fine paying that money last year and forking it over for Strasburg, then we should pay it this year as well. I imagine both of those HSers would be signable for less than that $3.5.

    Id love to have one of Matzek, Miller, Purke, Turner, Z Wheeler, Leake, or Green. I understand a couple may have price tags almost double that $3.5 and that is fine if they are off the board(I would still take them if we felt they were that good, but I can understand after Strasburg’s price to not pay $6mill for the ten spot). If White and Gibson check out well then Id throw them in that group. Id put all of those guys ahead of Stroren, Jenkins, and Minor. At least one of the aforemention guys will be on the board and I will be upset if we pass on one of them for a lower rated guy.

  47. #47 by Josh - June 7th, 2009 at 21:57

    I think Kyle Gibson would be a great pick here- he’ll be cheaper now that he’s injured so he could be a cheap deal who could end up being the 2nd best college pitcher in this draft.

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Comments are closed.