Nationals Farm Authority

• Future Focus – Catchers
• Future Focus – First Basemen
• Future Focus – Second Baseman
• Future Focus – Third Baseman
• Future Focus – Shortstop
• Future Focus – Outfield

As a reminder, the Nats picks are as follows:

• 1st round: #9
• 2nd round: #55
• 3rd round: #87
• 4th round & out: #121 +30 (i.e. 151, 181, etc)

The first nine picks are

1. Tampa Bay
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Baltimore
5. San Francisco
6. Florida
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington

The number of total picks in each round is as follows:

• 1st round: 1-30
• Supplemental 1st: 31-46
• 2nd round: 47-78 (two extra picks due to unsigned 2007 2nd rounders)
• 3rd round: 79-108
• Supplemental 3rd: 109-112
• 4th round: 113-142
• 5th round and on: +30 to each end

Now onto the pitching, starting with the righthanders. The odds are pretty high that even if I extended this list to 20 (I’m at 12) the Nationals would only get one crack at any of these guys. With assistance from Perfect Game Crosschecker (PGCC), Baseball America (BBA), and MiLB.com, here are 12 of the top RHPs who will be available in next month’s draft:

1. Aaron Crow - The 21-year old Crow was 11-0 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP for the University of Missouri. Over 83IP, he struck out 103 hitters. BBA scouting report … “Other pitchers may throw harder, but no one can match the combination of Crow’s velocity (92-96 mph with a peak of 98), hard sink, command and ability to maintain his fastball. He also has a plus slider, though he tends to rely on it too much. His changeup can become a solid third pitch, but he has had little use for it in college. He has control and command, keeping the ball down and throwing strikes to both sides of the plate. If there’s a quibble, it’s Crow’s delivery, which has some effort but is cleaner than it was coming out of high school.” In my opinion, Crow is the top pitching prospect in the entire draft.  The odds are he’ll be off the board by the ninth pick, but there is a remote chance he could still be on the board when the Nats go on the clock. In all honesty, I’d only take SS Tim Beckham or 3B Pedro Alvarez ahead of Crow (regardless of the Nats’ needs).
2. Shooter Hunt - Hunt is a 21-year old pitcher from Tulane who was 9-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 105 strikeouts over 77 2/3IP. BBA scouting report … ”Batters just can’t put the barrel on his lively fastball, which sits at 91-92 mph and tops out at 94, or his hard breaking ball, which features curveball break and slider velocity … He nibbles at the corners and often pitches away from contact rather than attacking hitters … A sturdy 6′3″, 200-pounder, Hunt should be more than capable of handling the demands of starting in pro ball. His biggest adjustment will be learning to trust his stuff so he can keep his pitch counts down. He flashes a plus changeup in the bullpen, though he doesn’t use it much in games.” He’s a top-10 guy but probably not the best player available when the Nationals select. I see him going in the #12-15 range.
3. Tim Melville - The 18-year old Melville goes to the same Missouri high school as 2007 1st rounder Ross Detwiler. BBA scouting report … ”91-94 mph with his fastball and flashing a plus curve on a more regular basis. Melville is a very athletic 6′5″, 210-pounder who could be a star third baseman at the college level. He repeats his stress-free delivery with ease, allowing him to fill the strike zone.” He is committed to the University of North Carolina, but his commitment there is up in the air, especially if he gets grabbed in the middle of the first round. Too early at #9, but long gone by #55 (get used to reading that for the rest of the list). 
4. Gerrit Cole - The 17-year old Californian competes with Melville for the top prep arm in the draft. BBA scouting report … ”Cole’s four-seam fastball ranges from 93-96 mph, occasionally peaking at 97-98. He adds a hard, late-breaking curve which shows bite, tilt and depth. Cole used his changeup sparingly early in the season, though he used it more later. Adding to Cole’s considerable appeal to scouts is his tall, lanky and projectable frame, which is nearly ideal for a prep righthander. Scouts are split over whether Cole profiles as a starter or closer. He maintains velocity and pitch movement deep into games, but his inconsistent command and tendency to run up high pitch counts may move him to the bullpen.” He is advised by Scott Boras which might lead to his slide. I still think a team unintimidated by Boras’ influence (Arizona?) will target him  later in the first round.
5. Josh Fields - The 22-year old senior from the University of Georgia was drafted in the second round last year by the Braves, but chose to rturn to school in hopes of improving his draft position. He has done everything to do just that. In 25 appearances for the Bulldogs, he was 1-1 with 15 SV, 0.68ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 47K in 26 1/3IP. BBA scouting report … “His fastball still sits in the mid-90s, peaking at 98, and his hard downer curveball comes in between 81-83 mph. Scouts are still wary of command issues because his delivery is upright and has some effort. When he misses, it’s up in the zone due to not being able to get over the rubber and finish his pitches. Also a concern is durability because of his slight build. When he’s on, though, Fields has present major league stuff and the potential to be the first pitcher from this draft to reach the major leagues.” Fields is likely to be selected in the 20s in the first round.
6. Tanner Scheppers - The 21-year old Scheppers would rank higher but a stress fracture in his pitching shoulder ended his season and cast some serious concern with his draft position. In 12 games for Fresno State, he was 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 109K in 70 2/3IP. BBA scouting report … ”Scheppers’ lanky build and spindly legs draw comparisons to former big leaguer Rick Rhoden, and he holds his fastball velocity like a frontline starter, sitting at 92-96 mph at his best with good movement and command. In the past, Scheppers had difficulty commanding his curveball, which has evolved into a power 74-78 mph offering. Generally solid mechanically and athletic, Scheppers will rush his delivery occasionally and fight his command, becoming wild high. With his workable mechanics and terrific stuff, Scheppers has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, but it all now depends on his recovery from the stress fracture.” He was linked to the Nationals at #9 prior to the injury but I have to believe they have moved off of him given the circumstances. A team with multiple early picks like the Brewers or Mets or Twins might take a flier on him sliding to be balanced out with their other early selections.
7. Andrew Cashner - The 21-year TCU junior was 8-3 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 25 appearances out of the bullpen. BBA scouting report … ”No college pitcher in this draft can match his consistent 96-98 mph velocity, the product of outstanding whip in his 6′6″, 180-pound frame, and overmatched opponents have hit just .104 against him. Cashner has armside run on his fastball, and he backs it up with an 84-85 mph slider that can be electric. The slider is much better than the mediocre curveball he threw in the past, though it’s not always consistent. Neither is his command, which may prevent him from becoming an effective starter, but some clubs are interested in returning him to that role in pro ball.” Cashner will compete with Josh Fields as the first pitcher to make a major league debut. A late first rounder/early supplemental first rounder.
8. Alex Meyer - The 18-year old high schooler from Indiana is a borderline first rounder who has shown a strong commitment to the University of Kentucky.  BBA scouting report … ”Meyer threw his fastball from 92-95 mph, and his hard breaking ball was even nastier. Just like that, he was tabbed as a potential first-rounder for the 2008 draft.” He’s another Boras client who might slide due to signability. He’s arguably got the talent but given the Nationals lack of early selections not someone they should gamble on early unless they are willing to do whatever it takes to sign him.He is someone who could be tabbed later in the draft a la Jack McGeary with designs on stealing a value pick later (5th round or later).
9. Ryan Perry - The 21-year old Perry was initially a starter for Arizona, but moved to the bullpen, going 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA over 26 appearances for the Wildcats with 63K and 16BB in 67 1/3IP. BBA “Scouts say Perry’s fastball, while a plus-plus pitch for to its velocity, lacks deception and hitters sit on it, especially when he’s starting and struggles to locate his offspeed stuff. When he’s going well, he adds a second plus pitch in a slider that one scout compared to that of Phillies closer Brad Lidge. Perry’s changeup shows enough potential to make scouts consider him as a starter, but he’s been much more effective out of the bullpen. His fastball lacks life and needs the extra velocity he gets out of the bullpen” He looks like a supplemental first round selection, but ccould be on the board when the Nationals select at #55.
10. Ross Seaton - The 18-year old Texas high schooler is a late first rounder/early supplemental first rounder. BBA scouting report … ”throwing 90-94 mph all spring and touching 96, Seaton has leapfrogged several others to establish himself as the Lone Star State’s best prep pitching prospect. He features a slider than can range from devastating to flat, and an effective changeup. While his secondary pitches are inconsistent, his control isn’t, as he throws strikes with ease. His delivery is smooth and easily repeatable.” Reports have the Astros very interested in the local guy with the #38 pick overall.
11. Jake Odorizzi - Another high-schooler, the 18-year old Odorizzi is a favorite among many scouts. BBA scouting report … ”he has kicked his fastball up to 91-93 mph with consistent armside run this spring. A half-dozen scouting directors witnessed a May start in which he sat at 92-93 mph in the late innings. Odorizzi operates with a clean delivery that he repeats well, and the ball comes out of his hand so easily that his fastball appears even quicker. The teams that believe in him like his slider, while others think it needs more refinement.” He’s committed to Louisville but if he’s grabbed among the first 50 picks is likely to forego college for the pros. Depending upon what the Nats do with their first pick, he is a consideration at #55.
12. Tyson Ross - The 21-year old Ross is a starter for California where he was 7-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.34WHIP with 56K in 65IP. BBA scouting report … “He was at his best against Stanford in a May victory, touching 96 mph and sitting in the low 90s. Moreover, Ross worked off his fastball and used his changeup effectively against the Cardinal in a start that may convince teams to leave him as a starter. His best pitch is a plus slider thrown in the low-80s with short, hard break. At times it has two-plane break, and it’s such a good pitch and he locates it so well that at times he throws it far too often, working off the slider instead of his fastball.” He’s another guy who could go earlier if a team believes a transition to the pen can accelerate his development. The supplemental first round seems most likely.