There was a question in comments about when Nationals 2007 1st rounder Ross Detwiler was likely to make his move to Potomac? Assuming what the Nationals have been intimating, Detwiler is going to make one more start in the GCL on Friday (August 3) and then make the shift to Potomac. His next turn in the rotation would be a week from today (August 8) when Potomac visits Frederick. And, assuming all things hold his first home start in Woodbridge on August 13 against Wilmington.
When is Ross Detwiler Headed to Potomac?
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#1 by Paul - August 1st, 2007 at 12:25
Thanks for the info Brian- as you said previously, I’m sure the Nationals will make a big deal out of Detwiler’s promotion given the hype surrounding a No. 1 pick, the stated goal of rebuilding the farm system, and the proximity of the P-Nats to RFK.
I definitely hope to be in the stands when Detwiler arrives in Woodbridge.
#2 by Rocket1124 - August 1st, 2007 at 12:49
Aug 13 – also an off night for the big club.
#3 by Brian Oliver - August 1st, 2007 at 12:57
Rocket – Before the home series with Philadelphia. Guessing we’ll see some of the bigwigs there (Kasten, Bowden, Rizzo, Boone, Brown, Acta, etc)
#4 by Greg - August 1st, 2007 at 13:27
Great. Thanks for the info!
#5 by A DC Wonk - August 1st, 2007 at 15:44
OK, so I’m new at following the minors so closely, and I know I have a lot to learn
Why is Detwiler, age 21, with a grand total of eight GCL innings under his belt, already slated for a promotion to Potomac, when there are two 22+ year old pitchers at Vermont who are dominating more than Detwiler is? (In particular, Alaniz, who is 23 and has eye-popping numbers — 0.57 ERA, a ridiculously low 0.57 WHIP. over 10Ks/9IP, etc etc.)
I’m not being critical, and I certainly have nothing against Detwiler, just trying to learn the ins and outs of this business.
(And sorry if I sound like a one-trick pony here . . . I asked a similar question in another thread, but that was before I read the above. I would think that “backfilling” is not the reason if only one pitcher from Vermont were promoted.)
#6 by A DC Wonk - August 1st, 2007 at 15:46
(Err, I hope I didn’t jinx him. Alaniz was supposed to pitch at 1pm today . . . don’t know how he did yet)
#7 by Brian Oliver - August 1st, 2007 at 15:58
Talent level. Detwiler is considered an elite prospect while Alaniz, Zimmermann et al are more projects. According to scouts, Detwiler projects better than Alaniz or Zimmermann
#8 by John - August 1st, 2007 at 16:10
Alainiz gave up two runs on four hits in the first inning, but rebounded and finished with five innings pitched, two runs on six hits and a walk. He struck out one. His ERA ballooned to 0.98 :)
Vermont won 4-3.
#9 by Louis J. - August 1st, 2007 at 16:13
DC Wonk Detwiler is on a”fast track” development program because he was the No.1 selection in the draft. In 2005, Zimmerman was on the “fast track” because he was the No.1 selection and Marrero (2006) is on the “fast track” becuase he was the No.1 selection. Fast Track refers to the decision by “the powers to be” of an organization that a player has the physical tools and maturity to handle a higher level of competition than his peers. We have seen how Zimmerman, at his young age, has been able to handle major league talent and pressure. If you see Marrero play with the P-Nats, it’s obvious he is very mature for age 19 and he handles High-A pitching well. Andy Miller of the Tigers (2006 1st Round selection) is now pitching in the ML. The reports on Detwiler were that he had 2 plus pitches, good mechanics, advanced maturity about how to pitch and could handle advanced competition. Therefore, tools and maturity are more important than age. The tools and maturity of the other prospects that you mentioned will demonstrate when they should be promoted.
#10 by A DC Wonk - August 1st, 2007 at 16:42
Well, I still don’t get it (sorry, I’m not being intentionally obtuse!)
A few points:
Louis: I did see Marrero, right at, apparently, where he begun his 0-16 streak (including striking out 5 times in a game) . . . I’m not saying he’s not good, but he’s still a bit raw.
Brian: I don’t understand what “projects well” means as compared to “performs extroadinarily well”. OK, so Deitwiler has the tools. But Alaniz (just using him as a textbook example here) must have something going, too, no? He just has his worst game (thanks for the update John!), but still has a record of 6-0 with an ERA still under 1.00, and a WHIP even lower. Before today’s game: 36K’s and just 4 BBs! So, I’m not saying call him up to MLB, but let’s see what he can do. My point in this paragraph is this: at some point “peforms extraordinarily well” has to be as big as a consideration as “projects well”, don’t you think?
Louis: it almost sounds like you’re saying that if a guy gets drafted #1 and gets a big contract, they are wedded to promoting him as fast as feasible. (We see that in football a lot: guys with high draft numbers get the breaks, and guys drafted low have to perform twice as hard to get noticed. The team has to “justify” the signing-bonus)
So, if somebody can tell me that Alaniz is not mature, OK, then, fine. But, I’m just wondering what a guy has to do in order to get promoted (other than, retroactively, been a high draft pick). You can tell me that Ryan Zimmerman can handle major league talent — but you can’t say that’s not true of the others without giving them a chance.
Again — everybody — I’m not trying to be argumentative. I’m just trying to learn this stuff.
#11 by Tom - August 1st, 2007 at 16:47
Follow the money. It also make those who select Detwiler look smarter if he succeeds as quickly as he is projected.
#12 by Alan - August 1st, 2007 at 16:55
DC Wonk -
I’ve always thought that these kinds of player development decisions are the real “inside baseball” that even the most dedicated of fans can’t follow. In the case of Detwiler, I’m under the impression that he is considered to have pitched in the equivalent of a high minor league program because of the college he attended (SW Missouri State) and the conference he pitched in. I used to work with a fellow who played at SW Mo State when the Oakland A’s actually threw money their way as an experiment in formalizing some sort of developmental system that included college programs as well as minor leagues. So, Detwiler pitched in a high level baseball conference against known caliber competition, making him easier to evaluate. On the other hand, Zimmermann (don’t know about Alaniz) pitched at U. Wisconsin Stephens Point (or similar), in baseball obscurity. Don’t know that he was ever even mentioned by BA or played in one of the summer wooden bat leagues. At Vermont, those pitchers are throwing against mostly recently out of high school talent just getting used to wood bats and that’s yet to be weeded out . Probably, one difference between Detwiler and the others is the comfort with evaluating their success versus the talent they have faced and are now facing.
#13 by Alan - August 1st, 2007 at 17:06
Tom -
There’s no doubt that money is part of the equation, but if it were a significant part then there would not be so many first rounders and bonus babies who never even sniffed the high minors, much less the major leagues. Call me naive, but I believe performance and the perceived ability to perform has a lot to do with promotions.
#14 by John - August 1st, 2007 at 17:44
DC: I worked in hockey for a little while and have learned that there are certain skills that can allow you to be successful in lower levels of hockey without having some of the skills necessary for success in the NHL. I saw several players that had much better stats in juniors or the minors than players drafted higher, but the higher player was more successful in the long run and at the NHL because he had the total package needed for success.
While I don’t know baseball as well as hockey, I imagine there are some similarities in scouting players. One thing I know for sure is both Alainiz and Detwiler have had a very small sampling of pro ball. My guess is Detwiler has much better inherent skill(read pitches) than Alainiz and therefore more is expected. Higher picks/ players with more natural skill are going to get the benefit of the doubt, especially this early.
I will say that I have seen(in hockey) less skilled players that ultimately outperformed higher picks. However, this early in their careers, I’m not surprised to see the higher pick fast tracked. Perhaps in time Alainiz will prove better. Time will tell.
#15 by Pilchard - August 1st, 2007 at 17:51
Scouting projections only get you so far, and then you have to produce. Obviously, the Nats have invested the most in Detwiler, and so, he will get the first look for promotions. That said, if over time, Alaniz or Zimmerman or the Nats 41st round pick prove to be better pitchers, the fact that Detwiler was a 1st round pick won’t be as important.
Ian Snell was a 26th round pick by the Pirates while Jon Van Benschoten was a 1st round pick (8th overall) for th Bucs. Over time, Snell proved himself to be the better pitcher, and he is now a solid MLB starter while Benschoten is struggling to prove that he is a MLB pitcher. While Detwiler will get promoted first, if other pitchers, like Alaniz, prove to be better those other pitchers will get their shot.
#16 by A DC Wonk - August 1st, 2007 at 19:26
Thanks everybody. I agree with much that has been written. I do fully understand that Alaniz might have the skills to blow away everybody in low-A but still not have the skills to replicate it at a higher level.
And thanks, Alan, for your discussion that SWMo might be considered like A ball. A nice insight.
But, I think, my question remains: isn’t there only one sure-fire way to tell whether Alaniz has the good for higher competition? When a guy has a sub 1.00 ERA for long enough, and he’s already 23, bump him up to see what he can do. I still don’t understand why nobody seems to be even contemplating doing that.
#17 by John - August 1st, 2007 at 21:08
Who says they aren’t contemplating it?
#18 by Hartmanbirge - August 2nd, 2007 at 00:32
The Nats are going to have a nice problem to have here real shortly. Who do they promote out of these two lower league teams and how far do they promote them… Gibson, Zimmerman, Alaniz, Pena, Dean, Meyer, and Detwiler is the group I’m referring to. If all goes well at least five of that group should be in Potomac next year. Detwiler will be one of them that we can take to the bank… Gibson I would argue is next in line. I think that Zimmerman will be a third as he has perhaps the best arm of the entire group. Meyer is older and perhaps more polished – that’s four. And for the fifth were it me I would choose Dean. That makes for a hell of a staff. One can tell from the box scores that Pena’s command isn’t on the same level as the others. And Alaniz has arguably a lower upside… I guess they go to Hagerstown at the start…. and it would be great to add Smoker to this group!
#19 by Hartmanbirge - August 2nd, 2007 at 03:55
And like an idiot I forgot to add Colton Willems….perhaps the best arm in the system. If I had to bet on next year’s placement I would guess that Potomac High A will have: Detwiler, Gibson, Meyers, and Dean. And Hagerstown Low A will have: Willems, Zimmerman, Alaniz, and Pena.
#20 by A DC Wonk - August 2nd, 2007 at 08:23
Hartmanbirge, you wrote that: “Alaniz has arguably a lower upside…” — can you explain why? (All I see are the stats, which are outstanding, but I know nothing of the rest of him)
#21 by Brian Oliver - August 2nd, 2007 at 10:22
Wonk – According to scouts, Alaniz’ stuff is “below average across the board with a 86-89 mph fastball and workable curveball. He gets by on command and guile.” While that doesn’t preclude him from developing into a serviceable SP, it does lower his upside.
#22 by A DC Wonk - August 2nd, 2007 at 13:21
Ahhh, OK, thanks. That, finally, makes sense to me when one is talking about “projects well” or not.
(OTOH, of course, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, and many others suffer from the same “problem” -g- )
Also, interestingly, you must admit, it seems odd that a guy who “gets by on command and guile” can rack up 37K’s in the first 36 innings he pitched.
Nevertheless, I look forward to, some day, seeing what he (and the other top pitchers in Vermon) can do in Potomac.
(And I hope we don’t have to wait too long!)
#23 by Hartmanbirge - August 2nd, 2007 at 14:04
It’s really interesting to me to compare Gibson and Alaniz. Both have similar repoirtoire and are known as control pitchers. The results of both are strikenly even freakishly similar. Gibson has a slighly better fastball and from what I can tell his command is a bit better. Given that, I think Gibson at least at this point is the better prospect and would go to High A before Alaniz. Then there is Zimmerman and Dean. Again, very similar in that both are around 93mph though from what I’ve seen in the scouting reports Zimmerman’s secondary stuff is better and his command is superior. I think that Zimmerman is shaping up to be a real nice choice in the second round. And considering the depth of this year’s draft one might arguably say that he would have compared quite favorably to Colton Williams had he been in last year’s draft.
#24 by Benji - August 2nd, 2007 at 21:44
Just a note-Lannan doesn’t blow people away either. He gets by on command. Maybe Alaniz is next years Lannan?