Nationals Farm Authority

Version 1

• #6 CA Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech
• #31 LHP Brett Cecil, University of Maryland
• #49 SS Justin Jackson, TC Roberson HS (NC)
• #67 RHP Neil Ramirez, Kempsville HS (VA)
• #70 RHP Wes Roemer, Cal State Fullerton
• #100 CA/1B Danny Rams, Gulliver Prep HS (FL)

Version 2

• #6 3B/SS Mike Moustakas, Chatsworth HS (CA)
• #31 LHP Jack McGeary Roxbury Latin HS (MA)
• #49 SS Justin Jackson, TC Roberson HS (NC)
• #67 RHP Neil Ramirez, Kempsville HS (VA)
• #70 LHP James Adkins, University of Tennessee
• #100 SS Drew Cumberland, Pace HS (FL)

Given that this will be my last mock draft before the actual one gets underway, I’m going to provide the draft from a few different points of view.

First, will be if the Nationals opt for a safer more predictable strategy, focusing on college players. This would not be unusual given the presence of Mike Rizzo and Dana Brown in the draft war room. Both Rizzo and Brown have proven themselves rather adept at identifying college players who are most likely to develop into major leaguers. Rizzo was in charge of drafts that netted Brandon Webb (8th rd 2000), Scott Hairston (3rd rd 2001), Chad Tracy (7th rd 2001), Connor Jackson/Carlos Quentin (1st rd 2003), and Stephen Drew (4th rd 2004). Brown, working with the handicap of little funds and less personnel to scour the draft eligibles, managed to identify Chad Cordero (1st rd 2003), Bill Bray (1st rd 2004), and Ryan Zimmerman (1st rd 2005).

The next mock draft would be if the Nationals pursued the high ceiling high schoolers in a similar manner in which they conducted the early part of the 2006 draft when they grabbed six prep players with their first six picks signing all but 2nd round RHP Sean Black. This is high risk and high reward drafting. It takes time and the personnel necessary to develop them. The former? The Nationals have plenty of it. The latter? That is still to be determined.

The third draft will be how I would draft if I were given the keys to the car. Keep in mind, I have seen approximately zero of these players in person and am relying upon the draft videos I’ve seen as well as what the industry experts like Baseball America and PGCrosschecker provide.

The final column will be my best guess of how I think the Nationals will actually operate their draft. It will be based upon best available at each pick but there are other things that must be taken into account. Personalities in the war room. Signability/contract questions. While I can understand the sentiment that the Nationals should take whomever is the best at each pick regardless of the contract demands, it is not often the case in the real world. Teams have defined boundaries of how much they are willing to spend to acquire a player. By no means am I implying the Nationals should stick strictly to the slotting bonuses. If it’s a matter of a difference of 10-15% or less, then sure consider taking that extra step. But if the difference is in the millions then I don’t find it unacceptable to opt for a near equal talent with a more reasonable bonus demand.

Aside from Wieters at 6, the college draft really isn’t that appealing from an upside perspective. Wieters is nearly major league ready today. Savery, Roemer, and Adkins all project out as middle of the rotation guys as their ceilings. Frazier is a solid middle infielder who could probably also handle 1B and 3B, think Chris Woodward. Kulbacki is a local guy who hit a ton at James Madison. Not sure whether he would develop into a starter but he could develop into a serviceable bench player.

The high school draft is long on projection. Moustakas, as I have previously mentioned, is quickly climbing the charts as the best available prep bat in the draft. He has the potential to develop into a 20+ home run infielder (likely 3B). The most mentioned name when it comes to Noonan is Chase Utley. Middlebrooks is a corner infielder who has drawn comparisons from scouts to Cal Ripken and also has thrown 90+ from the mound as a RHP. Ramirez, a RHP, and Vineyard, a LHP, both have the ability to develop into frontline starters if all things break right. The thing about all of these players is there is alot of uncertainty involved in developing prep school players into major leaguers. Could all of them develop into major leaguers? Unlikely. Is there an All-Star in the making there? Possibly, but it is no guarantee that it wouldn’t be Vineyard instead of Moustakas. This is a risky strategy with the highest potential return on investment, but also the most likely to flame out of the four options.

My picks have changes a bit. I’m back on the Wieters bandwagon. It appears from rumblings that Wieters is sliding due to signability issues (as is Rick Porcello if stories are to be believed). If Wieters is there, I really believe he has to be the choice. History shows that college hitters early in the draft offer the greatest chance of success. The fact that Wieters is a switch-hitting middle-of-the-order catcher makes him an easy choice, regardless of the challenges faced dealing with Scott Boras. Peter Kozma, an Oklahoma HS shortstop is my choice at 31. He’s been moving up the draft boards the past month. He is not flashy but he is solid with the glove with developing gap power. Schmidt might not be there at 49, but my target would be a college arm there, lefty if it’s available in draft chock full of solid college LHPs. I’m riding the Neil Ramirez at 67 bandwagon with a highly projectable RHP who happens to be local. Fairley is another guy who might not be hanging around when the Nationals 2nd round selection rolls around, but looking for a projectable prep OF, preferably a CF would be where I’d go with this pick. Jordan Zimmerman is an interesting college RHP from Wisconsin. He sits in low-90s with his fastball. He looks like a #3-4 type SP with an outside shot of being a #2 SP.

Finally, the Nationals. Some may not like the choice of Detwiler there. If Wieters is still there, I could see the Nationals taking the risk, but something tells me they may opt for the second best college arm in the draft. Burgess was invited to a draft workout at RFK and he is exactly the type of toolsy projectable OF that the Nationals would identify. If someone like Oklahoma State’s Corey Brown is still hanging around at 49, he would be a solid selection as a future CF for the Nationals. In fact, you might be able to flip flop Brown and Burgess given the feel of the draft. I’m going to stick with Ramirez as the Nats pick. It seems like the right time to gamble on a prep RHP. And that is followed up by grabbing Danieli two picks later. I’m basing that on the fact that Dana Brown has quite the affinity for NJ players and in lieu of missing out on Porcello, they grab his teammate and dig in for a tough negotiation. The final selection is based entirely on who the Nationals brought in for a workout that might be there at 100. It could as easily be MI John Tolisano, but I’m going with Rams, assuming the Nationals are drawn to the big arm and big bat of the prep catcher.

The draft starts at 2PM ET tomorrow. I plan on liveblogging it to the best of my ability.